Max,

Very interested in your analysis, which turned out similar to mine using the Raceform ratings. My only reservations about Monger Lane were the jockey stats and stable's recent form, but mine could well be wrong as I haven't had chance to double check. Otherwise I think you could well be right, as I think Ballylusky might have a few too many pounds to carry.

Cheers and good luck, not that you need it.

Oldtimer

There's an awful lot of good points coming out of this thread,After the race i know but nevertheless J M W turner looked to have an outstanding chance based on it's form 3 races back over same c/d in same class, But a decent claimer can make a lot of difference.

Just looked at the J/T stats 7% and 14% for 3 yr old,Would you still have discarded even though it looked well in.

well called max !!nice bit of value betting i took the 10/1 e.w.nearly pulled it off but still made a bit.

Well done my friend,Yet another class thread.

Good call Max and BBasher. Fascinating to see it dig deep on the final turn and find enough to see off the rest on the run in. Still a winner in my book.
In the 2:10 Roberty Bob ran out of steam well before the end which, for a real stayer, was dissapointing. Southern Star who finished second ran a real belter considering it had 11-10 on its back. Maybe Postdata knows something the rest of us don't!.

ap had other ideas,even so the 2/1 a place makes it worthwhile.

will post one or two more up tomorrow.

has anyone got any queries regarding the method or is anyone not getting the same figures,if so post up and we can have a look.

wonder 142b/27gs/154/150/150/!!/!x
sir 132c/27 s/141/141/141/!!/!x
samuel 142b/26gs/132/142/152/!?/!x
polar 133b/24 s/144/133/142/??/!!
high 134a/24 s/136/134/136/!?/?x

not a very nice looking race with doubts surrounding the lot of them but i see this between two of them WONDER WEASEL whose impressive 142 in a class b warrents a closer look,it is running off a mark 4lb higher than anytime within the last year but lto won well and this step up to 4m will be in its favour judging by the way it ran last time.the other one to concentrate on is SIR FROSTY who is showing improvement with every run.today running off 141 equals its mark lto which gives it every chance,the soft ground and the trip should pose no problems.the downside though is timmy murphy who is 2/41 in chases at the course and only 4% overall.considering he is a top 5 jock you have to ask whats wrong with him at cheltenham over fences?SIR FROSTY'S 132 in a class c puts it neck and neck with WONDER WEASELS 142 in a class b but when comparing best ever pm's WONDER WEASEL has 9 point cushion and if its last run is anything to go by will have enough in hand to repel SIR FROSTY.of the others polar champ will find this ground to soft.high cotton seems to weaken to quickly for my liking and samuel wilderspoon has had countless chances in the past.

remember when you are calculating your figures to adjust the postmarks you are working with.

will try to do an a/w and post up.

I have as they say been sitting on the fence and following your evaluating form thread.
For those prepaired to think hard on whats it about,it can open the doors to a array of selection methods,and how everythink fits a logical pattern.
Keeping a record of my bets following your advice i have noticed a few of them with a improved p/m and top speed rating each time showing a likely candidate for the winners enclouser
eg.COOL INVESTMENT
15 NOV chelt 2M6F 110 class rating,80p/m,56t/s
4 dec plum 2m4f 53 class rating,119p/m,75t/s
21 dec war 3m 77 class rating,128p/m,88t/s
28 dec newb 2m6f 54 class rating,won 3/1

cool investment passed all filters also it showed to me it was in peak physical condition.
On burning that midnight oil looking back through old flat form books this happen so many times 2y0 and 3yo running in higher value races then dropping them down and going in.
Thank you for all the work you put in Max and to allow others like myself to learn from you.Would like to wish you and your family a very happy,Healthy and of course a winning new year.

what you say is very interesting and i am sure a few members will notice the obvious link with vdw i.e roushayd and your above post.allthough when i posted the method up i had not intentionally meant to link the two.
i wish you every success with it and many winners.

onto southwell 3.15 16f.

the table laid out slightly different-where the suitability on the going was noted before for the purpose of all a/w races this will be substituted with the same mark !/x/? to represent proven a/w form on particular track.i have also included the best t/s from the last 12 months to back up any potential bet.

tweed 60f/14a.w/93/60/93/!!/!x/ts 67 16f wolv
coco 78d/16a.w/78/78/78/?!/xx/ts 22 16f sand
kent 65f/16 h/82/65/82/!!/!!/ts 75 12f sout
bustl 121c/20 gf/71/61/71/!!/!!/ts 29 16f ling
bobby 75f/16a.w/68/73/75/!!/!!/ts 34 16f wolv
miss 66d/12a.w/59/66/66/??/?!/ts 26 12f ling


best piece of a.w form on offer is with coco loco and looking at her today/latest/best shows improved form but trainer/jockey both fail and she needs to prove herself at the track.
tweed is interesting but is running off a mark equal to its best from the last 12 months and you have to ask will it run upto that today,its recent form is nothing special scoring a 60 but only in a class f.taking bustling rios 121 in a class c at face value makes it a certainty,it ran an ok a/w come back a few weeks ago and has the right trainer/jockey combo,proven over the trip and at the course i would have to make this the selection,allthough its best a/w pm of 71 leaves it a bit to find with a couple of these as long as a decent price is on offer i will back it.of the others it is the right time of year for kent who could win it at his best but needs to step up on what it has recently done.the filly miss croisette is one to keep an eye on in the future running a very good 66 in her maiden lto.bobby kennard the paper favourite is at least in form but should find a couple to good.so the selection is BUSTLING RIO chased home by KENT.

good luck.

That was a hell of a race to choose,But nevertheless you named the winner and 3rd albeit the wrong way round but well done all the same,I'm pretty sure others will see the mileage in this method,I hope the other one comes off for you.

Max the paper version of the RP have totaly diferent figures than you Why. warrington

The class 121 c for Bustling Rio wasn't in it's last 3 runs,It was also on turf confused mate.

Sorry to bombard you,Going back to trainer/jockey stats,I understand these completeley and they are obviously very good,But let's just say for example you have a horse that fails on j/t stats,or the jockey has below 10% but when riding a particular horse he's won on it say 2/3 over the same trip on the same course,I suppose you'll tell me to use a bit of the grey matter,nevertheless it would be nice to see your opinion on this.

Consistant as ever!.

Sorted out my problem. Using the online postmarks it works from right to left. I was taking lto as the leftmost figure (or oldest as it turns out) Can't believe I ever got one winner never mind the bagful I did. Not to worry, things can only get better.

Bought a copy of the Rpost and like War. above I couldn't find correlation between written and online. As the nearest paper shop is 3 miles away and the pc 3 feet away I think I'll have to stick with online and mental arithmatic.

Keep up with the examples Max as it's really interesting to see how others interpret what they have infront of them.

Thanks Mikey, so it was not me, glad you found the same, so waiting to see if there is an answer to my question. Same as you I had some wins with the wrong figures. I am now wondering if it matters. warrington

well not to good today but onto thursday and i have looked at the card at ayr and will attempt to go through the card.

just noticed the questions and i will do my best to answer in the morning but i am off to southwell so maybe pushed for time.


you will have to bear with me because i have just noticed that i have not written the horses full names out on my sheet so they will appear as the first few letters of their name,very unprofessional i know but i cant be going back to the post online now so will have to make do.

just noticed i have also not noted the race times so will post up as 1st race etc,sorry.

1st race

ALAM has a 103 in a class d 16f g/s,its lto pm of 103 also equals its best (improvement) and is the mark its running off today.nearest danger is the likely fav miss opulence 86d with a lto 85 is also improving but the ground should be to soft for this doubtful stayer.the selection ALAM looks to be the 2nd best bet on the card.

2nd race
TO THE FUTURE 103e 25s and a best of 107 means it has little to beat and allthough the trainer is only 6% overall he is 10% for race type.clonshire paddy would be a danger on its 118e 22h but i have given this one a chance in the past only to see it lose races it should have won.

3rd race
i cannot split ISLAND trained by f.murphy and the lungo horse KIDIT...? who have 106e and 101e respectively.they both have the same best pm but ISLAND runs off a 4lb higher mark than before.KADIT...? should improve for the step up in trip and i forced to choose i would favour this one.

4th race
a piece of cake on 132c 106 latest and 119 best has the prior form to beat the selection but it cannot be a confident pick and CURLY SPENCER 123d with 123 latest and best is going the right way and may just show further improvement to beat the top weight.i suppose scotmail boy 127d 130 best also deserves a mention but even under ideal conditions has been non to consistent of late.

5th race

this is a real toughie but two i like the look of are BACKDRAFT 120d and a 120 best and spree vision 105d and a 105 best.the first named does have to conclusively prove very soft ground suits but i have a feeling this one will overturn the shortpriced fav who did not do much in my opinion last week when winning a low class race scoring 105f it also has a 105 best.assuming the fav and backdraft both give their true running i doubt the fav could find the ammount of improvement required to beat the top weight.

6th race

my nap of the card goes to THE RILE whose 122e 20gs is more than enough to win this race and i shall be snapping up anything like the 7/4 quoted.this horse has a 122 best and latest and should have no trouble translating its hurdle form here and beat the f.murphy runner whose 106d is the nearest challenger.i do not think the other two can trouble the selection with bay island a doubtful stayer on ground this soft.

7th race

SPOOF 105e 27s looks good to me,it has already won around here and the nearest danger who will like the soft conditions and the trip is BRIANS ridden by dobbin should fill the runner up spot with a 97e and a 102 best looks a clear 2nd choice but should not trouble the selection.


as a matter of interest i am off to southwell to back a couple VALUABLE GIFT 12.55 and especially DECO STAR 3.30 also keep an eye out for one down to run again tomorrow FLYING FAISEL 2.55 who just got touched off today and may go one better if it runs.it has dalgleish on and they could have a little touch.

good luck.

I,m going to be a scardy cat and go dutch today.

12.55 south Valuable Gift / Voluptous 10% of bank split stakes 5 and 5

1.55 south Bond Royale /Ronny from donny as they stand in r.p 6 and 4,I'll change stakes in the live market if needs be.

1.25 south Champagne Rider / Telegram Girl 7 and 3 as they stand.

Have a good day at southwell Max,I wish i was coming with you Good luck

if you adjust the ratings for todays conditions you get :
scotmail boy 132
a piece of cake 128
curley spencer 114

that appears to leave curly spencer with a lot to do and with scotmail boy having the best chance but as that horse is up and down and out of sorts and wears blinkers again the horse to be on would appear to be A PIECE OF CAKE .not one to be confident about but it will be interesting to see what happens.

put 2pts on alam at 5/2 !!!!but i wasnt sure about to the future so i left that one as it was a bit short.if i put 2pts on curly spencer at 5/4 and 2pts on a piece of cake at 7/2 i'll come away with 1pt profit at least whatever happens even if they lose now.your on a roll so far max ....good luck with the rest of the day and hope your doing well at southwell!!!