if a horse does not have a lto pm i do use the most recent however bad or good but always bear in mind the reason for a bad lto pm it may have been running very well but got badly hampered or even fallen and this will obviously be refleected in its post race pm.
treat these situations with caution and check back two runs ago to compare.for example a horse whose last 4 runs pm read 102/104/107/95 would raise an eyebrow.you can see it was improving but ran below par lto and i would want to know why,if there was a valid reason then i would forgive the hiccup but otherwise the figure stands and would be used accordingly.

good luck and a always back winners new year.

4 on the list 1 non runner so the other 3 1st/2nd/3rd.
hope some got on before the gamble,still 11/4 better than nothing.

Max,

Thanks and well done. I'm giving up for today, two fell and the rest nowhere, plus even my AW banker lost, although my e/w suggestion finished 2nd (again). With just two races to go it's just a matter of hoping that maybe a little something comes back to reduce the losses a little. It's been a horrendous week to end a bad year.

Oldtimer

I'm completely goosed?. Where did you get those figures from?. I looked at this race on line and came up with nothing.

The LTO for instance is
Cool - 94
Lord - 90
Suns - 100
Helv - 16

Help required!.

mike
the figures you mention are the figures immediantly after the horses names these figures are 6 races ago the best of the last 3 fig is lord n master 125/ cool 128/ helv 123/ sunshine is 110 which wasthe race but last

MAX
good call again, im following this method and im picking the races with limited win form with a maximum of 12 runners plus a good prize win money
today was 3 races 2/30 3.05 @newb plus3.00 haydock
is this how you pick your races
be lucky cabbie

i will have a look at the post online and try and work out where you got your figures from but i suspect cabbie has already answered your question.

cabbie
i do not really have a set of rules for picking races and the one i posted today was mainly random allthough i suppose the number of runners had something to do with it because of the time element.

Hello there
totally of the subject of horses,Is that little flapping track still going round your neck of the woods,I used to enjoy it there.My missus had 2 dogs Silver Hill and Zola,A bit of useless info but i just wondered if it was still there.

nice to see you over here.

do you mean Hinckley dog track?

thats about the nearest to me,we did have one in coalville a few years back but it was cursed and demolished.anyone who owned it ran into problems and it all came to a head when the last owner shot his wife.a bad business but the track was not up to much,they had an empty washing up liquid bottle for a hare.
hinckleys not much better but still going.

Lol, coalville was the one i was referring to,You made me laugh when you mentioned the hare,I'll have to tell my missus about that guy who shot his wife,If i remember rightly he was irish.

I noticed in one of your posts, you signed off Always back winners,And a while ago you mentioned that you spent some time with Stewart Simpson,Iv'e been toying with the idea of buying it,Iv'e heard good reports,Do you stil recomend it.

if you mail me with an address i will send you a copy.a belated christmas present.

a.dunn9@ntlworld.com

hi max and investor i used to clerk for a birmingham bookie there many years ago he did not last long there the locals were much to smart for him on one occasion the owner missed the price on his dog which was backed of the boards he did no more than go to the traps and squeeze the dogs balls just befor he entered the traps no show from him on that day

good luck to you both for the coming new year

Very nice of you to do thing like that,Shows what type of person you are,I would gladly e.mail you my address.But i don't expect something for nothing i would like to send you some money for it,What do you say.

e-mail me and i will pop it in the post,i do not want any money for it.i recommend you give it a read because his diary of a typical betting season in the early eighties will have you in stitches.

Iv'e been having a look at your method of form evaluation,You probably don't want to hear this and i promise i won't mention it again,But it holds well with vdw.Anyway at lingfield today,I'm pretty sure it would have singled out Bank on him,Also in the 1.15 it looked all the way a 2 horse affair with jade'a Promise andTrue companion,But if you break the form down,

True Companion
last 3 71 69 64 it would appear that it's form was starting to slip also finishing 5th lto carrying 9 stone today carrying same weight.

jade's promise
last 3 66 69 69 on 14th of dec finishing 2nd over 1 mile 4 carrying 8.7 with 7lb claimer on board,then dropped in distance and dropped in class csrrying 9.8 with claimer today upped in class but 8lb lighter,And of course e ahern on it's back,The writing was on the wall i think.

R.E the jockey/trainer combo's,Say you have a jockey with 4% and a trainer with 25% or vice versa even though it had good form,Would you disregard the horse in question,In other words does everything have to be right like the factors in vdw.Also we are approaching the time where we can expect quite a lot of abandonments,So the all weather on a lot of occasions will hold all the betting oppurtunities,How do you evaluate turf form on to the all weather.

Max what does one do with apprentice, do you knock off the allowance from the TODAYS postmark.
good thread this, made me money on Saturday.warrington

if a jockey had a low s/r compared to the trainer then i would discard it and vica versa,the only exception being when all of the other runners in the field either failed on either the jockey or trainer.for example my selection had a jockey s/r of 6%/trainer 13% if all of the others also failed on one of the two then i would still consider it because afterall there still has to be a winner.this would be a rare though as at least one or two will pass.
turf to a/w form is always tricky but as a general rule i do not back first timers on the a/w (maidens excluded,where sire stats play a part in evaluation)i will prefer to concentrate on proven a/w performers when deciding against runners with mediocre a/w form and those whose turf form is better but having a first run on the a/w.
if i was going to back an a/w first timer against runners who had already had a go on the surface then i would want to check that their best t/s and p/m was achieved on going at least similar to the a/w surface i.e g/f at lingfield to at least give them a fighting chance.
yesterday i did not even have a look at the lingfield card prefering to have another day off so i cannot say for sure what i would ahve backed but you are quite right about bank on him and after taking a quick look after the race it did stand out.
i will try to post up another race today around lunchtime if i have the time.

max.

Look forward to that.

I had a look at the 2:10 @ Cheltnam and horses like Moor Lane and Southern Star look good, only Moor Lane never done the distance and Southern Star not the going. (although post data has two ticks under going??). To me this leaves ROBERTY BOB as a strong contender and the 8/1 available looks real value.

Any thoughts?.

I like Bramhill Duke as his figures are not that bad , what sways me is that he has coped with heavy going in the past, I know Max will say he is giving Horus 10pts and Southern Star 20 but can they stand the going, time will tell. warrington

good to see at bit of discussion i hope you both do well.

i have had a look at one race so here goes-

table as before-

see you 140b/21gs/138/131/131/?!/x!
imperei 130b/21gf/130/145/145/!!/!x
prokofi 130c/22 s/130/130/136/!!/!x
ballylu 128b/21gs/128/122/128/!!/!!
paco ve 119c/24gs/119/119/119/?!/!x
muck sa 113c/20 g/113/112/113/??/?x
monger 120a/21 g/120/102/120/??/!x
live th 115b/24 g/120/115/124/??/!!

SEE YOU SOMETIME showing improved form last season as the 131 latest and best pm shows but today with a big weight and first run in a year gives it to much to do.

IMPERIAL DE THAIX back over hurdles could put up a big show on its best 145 but ap has deserted and not for me.

PROKOFIEV is improving and has a lot going for it but has a few pounds to find with a couple of these.

BALLYLUSKY needs to put a below par lto run behind it to figure today but prior to that has all the right credentials to run very close today its 128 run in a class b gives it every chance but i think it will fill the runner up spot today.

PACO VENTURE has done nothing wrong this season but will surely find a couple of these with to much class.its 119 lto which equals its best pm shows improvement though.

MUCK SAVAGE not good enough on what it has shown.

MONGER LANE i really like the chances of this one especially with the price around 10/1 maqking it excellent e/w value.allready a course winner earlier this year its only previous run this season can be forgiven.
its best piece of recent form was an impressive 120 in a class a and anything like that today will be more than good enough to take this race.the trainer is also 2/3 with his hurdlers here and the only downside is the jockey whose course form is not so good but all in all a very good chance.

LIVE THE DREAM even with ap choosing this one i have my doubts that it will like ground this soft,the distance also raises questions.its best ever pm of 124 also puts me off it.

so in conclusion the two most likely to fight it out are BALLYLUSKY and MONGER LANE and at the prices on offer i am going with the latter.

good luck.