Hope Max gets better soon as I still don't know if my interpretation of this is correct but anyway on to today.

2:55 New. Lord Moose (Tannis also has this) Unfortunatly also like Desailly and Max Pride so will watch the betting.

2:25 New. Haditofski (e/w) Competitive race with Perkys Pride, Warjan and even Sexio Branco in with a shout!.

2:45 Bangor Mini Sensation

Good luck

2:55 New. Lord Moose (Tannis also has this) Unfortunatly also like Desailly and Max Pride so will watch the betting.

2nd, 3rd and 4th - desailly being beaten close to the line @ 14/1


2:25 New. Haditofski (e/w) Competitive race with Perkys Pride, Warjan and even Sexio Branco in with a shout!.

F*&k me what about the one that got away - Haditofski beaten on the line @ 20/1!


2:45 Bangor Mini Sensation Non runner - again

really unlucky mikey , keep plugging away and it will come.

Max - don't you know this no time to get yourself sick!. What were you thinking of?!. Take a bottle of Asprin and get back here.

I think until Max gets better I'll just post up on Tannis thread to keep things together.

MAX.
Get well soon pleeeease, I check this thread every day for the next lesson.
best wishes Peter.

MAX.
glad to see you're back, hope you're well.
I'm still sitting at my desk waiting for the next lesson, if you're still of a mind to teach us that is.
regards
Peter

Welcome back Max hope all is well now, I like the rest have been waiting for the rest of the lesson,
Be lucky
Michael.

for the first time in ages find myself with 5 minutes to spare so thought i would post up my thoughts on a few of todays races.

again no time to go into much detail but-

12.45 uttox
toulesse laurtrec/cresswell quay/more tears
the ones to concentrate on with the first named looking well treated and taken to beat the inform cresswell quay.

1.20 uttox dantee venture holds a good chance on what it has allready shown.

2.25 uttox no need for alarm a confident pick.

3.00 uttox gola supreme totally unexposed and has already done enough to beat the top two in the weights.

3.30 uttox the river joker good chance.the danger appears to be barton mac if staying the new trip.

earlier in the day in the 1.50 at a big price araf may run into a place but cannot be put up as a bet.

1.00 asc master trix

1.30 asc i have a really good feeling about the pitman horse mitcheldean who now back over hurdles after a spell chasing should go well around the 10/1 mark.

2.05 i shall be looking closely at the top weight ins and outs who has good prior form going back to last season.

good luck.

with 3 falling when looking the likely winners,especially gola supreme who was travelling really well and a big shame as i had the other two to fill the places behind it.
ins and outs would have needed to dig deep to beat the fav.

if i have time will post up a couple later.

allthough not the best of races to choose as being better class most of the fields in with a shout but i have had a look and will post up all the workings so if anyone wants to follow the reasoning behind the selections then they should have a good idea as to how to do it for themselves.


what with the difficulty of posting tables and getting some sort of order heres the key to reading them.

horse/best piece of recent form expressed as postmark with the distance and class achieved in/suited to going and distance(indicated by a ! for pass or a x for fail and a ? where relevant/trainer and jockey course form !,x or ?/postmark unadjusted for today-latest-best.

1.20 ascot

seebald/168a/16gs/!!/!!/168-163-168
davoski/165a/16gs/!!/!!/165-160-165
dark an/161a/16g /!!/!!/161-142-161
get rea/153b/16h /!!/!!/155-142-164
shamawa/146b/16h /!!/!!/146/146/146
batswin/125a/16gs/!!/!!/146/125/142
young d/145b/20s /!!/!!/149/145/145

from the above you can see that SEEBALD'S run lto behind edredon earned it a pm 5 points behind its best (last 12 months)which is still well clear of the bottom 3.of those 3 SHAMAWAAN is improving but not enough to trouble the top 3,its lto pm of 146 in a b class leaves it with plenty to do to trouble the principles.BATSWING who won lto has only a carrer best of 142 with as you can see is well short of the sort of mark needed to win this.YOUNG DEVEREUX coming back from a long break is also only making up the numbers.
of the rest GET REAL is a good 20lbs short of the other 3.DARK AND SHARP allthough with a best pm of 161 puts it thereabouts and is getting 6lbs from the top weight should in an ideal world finish neck and neck with it but it will need to run a personal best today against the above mentioned and DAVOSKI who if the selection should not come on for its run last month will win.however its win 2 runs ago was the result of a brilliant a.p ride and when push come to shove today will finish 2nd to SEEBALD who showed its wellbeing lto when caught a tarter by edredon.like i have allready mentioned the top 3 are very closely matched but i think it reasonable to assume that SEEBALD will improve today somewhere in the region of 4lbs leaving the others with just to big a gap to bridge.

i will type up another the 1.50 as i watch the above race.

behrajan 177a/25gs/?!/!! 177/ /177
carbury 163a/25g /!!/?! 163/163/163
zafarabad157b/24gf/!!/?? 157/157/157
truckers 154a/16gs/??/!? 154/157/156
ikrenal 156b/20gs/!!/!? 153/ /156
exit to 158b/20gs/!!/!? 156/158/158

ok so another closely mathed contest with question marks about most of them but lets start with ZAFARABAD whose lto run shows improvement but doubts about the ground for me and even with a vintage ap ride needs to improve further.much the same comments apply to EXIT TO WAVE who i feel has problems with the trip.CARBURY CROSS i think will come unstuck if the going is tacky and i can see it running a good rave and being thereabouts only to fade in the last 2f.TRUCKERS TAVERN also has doubts about 3m allthough the trainer says it will get it i would rather wait and see for myself maybe with a view to backing it later in the season,the jockey still hasnt proved himself over here for me yet either.he maybe a champion amateur over in ireland but thurles to ascot a hell of a difference against the big boys.anyway this horse has only ever won over 2m.the henderson horse IKRENAL ROYAL is interesting and would not have to be a world beater to trouble these but another one who is unproven i will pass in favour of BEHRAJAN who allthough i expected more of last time behind takagi in ireland should put that behind it and run a cracking race today.by no means a confident pick it does have the proven form to trouble the rest with a best pm of 177 in a class a race.

Welcome back to the WINNERS ENCLOSURE (MAX)

Max,

Well done indeed. My thoughts went along similar lines, but I ended up with it second to Exit To Wave, who rather surprised me by staying the distance.

Good to see that you haven't lost your touch, whereas I hopefully am hoping to find mine. Though today I'd be better off with my second choices, as Benbyas was 3rd at 20/1!

Oldtimer

Max
well done what about entering our tipping challenge?????

Well done Max.
I've been using your system for a while on Tannis race rating with pretty good results but still in need of fine tuning. IE I took Davoski above Seebald today mainly because previously it had won a Grade A, whereas Seebald only Grade C. In the end it didn't matter as the ground beat both of them.

Have you been betting at all over the past two weeks?.

Reading my own post I'd better clarify that I mean Seebalds last win was in a Gp C. Just in case anyone thinks I'm a nutter.
Max I've went back to the start and you do make it quite clear that it's the highest career win and not the last win that count so it's my own fault.

Can you run over how you throttle a field down again as I end up rating every one top till bottom, just to be sure. This puts me off over eleven runners as I need another page of A4.

Also do you have any quick way of evaluating G & D apart from horse form. Ie Do you rate the ticks by the Rpost postdata?. Quite often these differ from mine.

That's probabaly two questions too many.

Congrats again on the 7/1 today. Pity I missed it.

if you use the paper version of the post you will manage to look at a race much quicker,so much for technology.
remember initially when looking at a race you only need to concentrate on the last three runs for each runner and any relevent form will jump out at you.if for example you have two horses with a pm (from last 3 runs) in the high 90's in the right grade and you come across another runner with a best of 76 you will obviously skip that runner and move on to the next.
the problem using the online version is having to click on each runners form when going through the field whereas when you have the paper version its all there on the same page(thats why i quoted 10 min for each race)
as for suitability on the going and distance i do not even look at the postdata tables as i have found them very unreliable in the past and much prefer to check all shortlisted runner's for wins or at least placed form under the conditions it is likely to encounter.much depends on the race type for example maidens or novice hurdle races are more of a gamble and then you can only go on sire stats but generally speaking if it has not at least placed under the same conditions then leave alone.
the other point you mention about class wins is also worth mentioning again because allthough they are important when looking at horses who have been around the block a bit they are not as relevant when comparing runners where a degree of improvement can be expected.in other words if you are looking at a 6yo in a 5f sprint who has only ever won in a d class what are the chances of improvement in todays class b race?.on the other hand a young lightly raced horse say a 5yo novice hurdler who had ran pm's last three runs of 99/102/109 could quite easily step up ONE grade in class and record a new personal best of 110.which equates to 11 lb's worth of improvement.

hi max
great post hope you give the forum more ideas,i wont trouble you with questions,i will wait and hope the people following your post will answer the questions that i would have asked, happy xmas to all, and have a winning new year
be lucky cabbie

hi cabbie-good to see you posting,ask anything you want.....within reason.


2.30 newbury

the ones to concentrate on are-

table laid out as before

cool investment 128c/24gs/c/127/128/128/!!/!!
helvetus 123d/20g /d/123/123/123/?!/!!
lord 125d/20gs/d/125/125/125/?!/x!
sunshine 110d/16h /d/110/ 87/110/!!/?!

as you can see 3 of them ran up to their best lto but sunshine needs to put the last run behind it today if going to figure.

COOL INVESTMENT has the best piece of recent form scoring a pm of 128 in a class c,from the latest and best pm you can see it was an improvement on earlier form.

HELVETUS has a stone to find with the above named and also has doubts surrounding its suitability on soft going.

LORD although showing improved form lto may struggle on ground this soft and even if it does handle it ok you can see lto's pm of 125 was in a class d in comparison to cool investment's 128 one grade higher leaving it with 13lbs to find with the top weight.(remember the guide 10 points pm for each grade)the trainer also fails so one to leave alone.

SUNSHINE is also only there for the ride as its best pm leaves it a mountain to climb against the selection.

the posts betting f/c quotes LORD the fav at 15/8 compared to COOL INVESTMENT around 5/1,i know which one i would want to be on and anything like that price would be a cracking e/w bet but i would not be put off by the straight win no matter how heavy the support for the fav.

Max,

What do you do if there was no PM for it lto - use the one from its previous run, even though that might date back to last season?

You certainly seem to have it down to an art. I must be picking the wrong races, but whenever I am able to try it I end up with the inevitable loser.

Oldtimer