Max,
I've always thought that the reason dogs shouldnt be backed when they are upped in grade is because of the initial acceleration taking more out of them. The higher the grade the quicker the early pace of the race, so although the dog may have a time comparable with the new grade's par time, it has to use more of its energy keeping up with the initial pace, so by the end of the race it is knackered. As you say, if the dog is classy enough after a couple of runs it has adjusted to the quicker early pace and can then maybe go on and win in that grade.
regards,

3 winners and 2 seconds from 6.
encouragingly the 2.30 went to the horse mentioned and the 4.05 we had the winner and the e/w 2nd choice finished 2nd.

i generally agree with all of your points but what about the upgraded runner whose sectionals are favourable compared to the runners competing in their normal grade.
i think you will find most upgraded dogs who go on to win first time in a higher grade will have first bend pace combined with the overall speed/time needed to defeat the grader.
not many upgraded dogs do it from behind,i do not know the figures but i would be very surprised if the majority did not pinch it from the front.afterall its logical to conclude that a dog who has enough early pace to avoid trouble and as its time proves can sustain it to the line will cope with a class rise.

been through the two n/h cards and some decent bets to be had.

musselburgh

1.20 SIKASSO holds very good claims on its 100e lto.witches brew has virtually the same claims but garrity is not very good at the course and a better e/w bet may be royal wanderer.

1.50 ROVERETTO will win barring a fall.

2.20 ROSE D'APRIL has not got much to beat.

2.50 BOBBAYARO 118d should come on and make up for an unlucky mistake lto when having the race at its mercy.of the dangers the manse bray's 117b looks to be a bit flukey and is better judged on its 113d,i expect this one to follow home the selection with third place going to hunters tweed 126e.

3.20 YANKEE JAMIE 134e will with the usual improvement mean's a win should be on the cards tomorrow.

3.50 BROOKLYNS BRIDGE should prove to strong for these.the interesting runner on old 2000 form is too technical so watch the market.

taunton

2.40 this looks tricky and to start with i couldnt narrow it down to less than four but after giving it a bit of thought i like the look of the nicholls top weight PERENGE 141c but will dutch with saddlers 141d the hobbs runner whose 5lb weight advantage will level the pm's to within 5lb.

3.10 SATSHOON 143c reverting to hurdles will find this alot easier and i fully expect it to take advantage.

3.40 SADDLERS SECRET 113d has beeen very consistant and has good claims.of the dangers got news for you 98d has abit to find but the weight conceeded by saddlers levels that out to within a lb,however timmy murphy is a good jockey to have on your side and anything like the 11/2 quoted looks an e/w steal.

4.10 KOCK DE LA VESRE 122d has the assistance of a.p and unless the nicholls ex french runner is anything special should account for greyfield 118c.greyfields trainer k.bishop has a decent strike rate here but is not in the best of form.the selection only has to run upto the level lto behind the german horse to easily take this.

will have a look at southwell and post if i find anything.

good luck.

max.

a very poor card and not alot to fancy,however-

1.00 only three with a realistic chance dil 67e the 6/4 fav is a terrible price and the macauley stable finding winners hard to come by.night shift blues 70d is a better proposition but not much of a better price and i favour the ex john gosdon MUTARAFAA who has only visited here once way back in feb 02 but at least did win scoring a 75 class d.the weight advantage though gives it even more of a chance(potentially anything upto 83 class d)however the downside is the drop back in trip and its a bit hit and hope but at the e/w price quoted maybe a small interest.another word of caution is the jockey though and for this reason a rev f/c with nightshift is the way i would go.

1.30 YAVARI could not have won any easier last week and that is obviously reflected in the price but i cannot see anything to top its 75e,well not on the a/w anyway but if you are prepard to take a chance on zyzania 70d making its debut from the morrison yard then the 20/1 does look very tempting.its turf form puts it right in the picture and will either go on and beat the selection or run like a donkey.

2.00 YOUNG COLLIER'S 60e was a improvement and back over this c/d will suit.it has quite a good cushion in comparison to the field and will win.

2.30 is really bad and betting in this is not a good idea but if i had my arm twisted i would go with LEITRIM ROCKS e/w.

3.00 a two horse race with rudik 76e who should find a few pounds at these weights but has not won in four years.even allowing for the class drop not one to take 5/4 about.i prefer PURE COINCIDENCE'S 67d and getting a generous weight advantage from the former but again doubts surround it regarding the trip.nothing else looks capable of putting up a fight and if they come for rudik the price on pure coincidence may be a big enough incentive to play.

3.30 i like the look of PARK STAR here scoring a 61d lto.the other one that caught my eye was STAR LAD who was beaten fair and square by the selection.they are weighted to finish in the same order but you can never discount i.mongon who not noted for h/c winners (likes his sellers)will give it a good ride.i will more than likely bet both with the win on park star and cover with the other.

good luck on an uninspiring card.

max.

Max,
Thanks for your kind offer. I only get time to analyse Saturday racing and am at the moment heavily into VDW Methodology so trying to post pre race on that thread.
I am very interested in this thread because you clearly post a lot of good stuff and know your business well.
I will try to contribute where I can. All the best,
Yours in sport

Graham.

Max,
I'd go along with that although to make certain I'd want the sectional time to be at at a track with a longish distance from the traps to the line to make sure the dog can sustain the early pace.
regards,

I have just seen your comments on Young Collier.

I heard the commentary only and so did not see what happened exactly but do you think they really tried to win this?

All the best

JIF

i dont know mate whether he tried his best or not but what i do know is going into yesterdays race BERGAMO ran a pm of 27 over 14f southwell compared to YOUNG COLLIER'S 60.with the weight advantage to BERGAMO and assuming it ran upto that best piece of form you could expect it to run 44 at very best.
that left YOUNG COLLIER over a stone well in and thats before it improves anymore.
they sure dont make it easy for us.

1.20 st matthew 113e
1.50 true north 118d
2.10 deoch an dorais 114d
2.20 the grey dyer 130d
3.10 grand gousier 116d
4.10 tana river 118d

this horse is very well treated today and a shrewd move by the trainer to get another win with a small penalty before the handicapper hammers it for last weeks win.it has been said that today's race will be the last one this season before the horse goes novice chasing but the price today is not very good for a 3m h/c in the mud and a better option maybe a f/c or even tricast with the leading contenders of the other runners.

here are the pm figures with the weight adjustment bracketed,they show the potential mark the horse could be expected to run.the difference between these and adjusted pm's as they appear in the post are that my adjusted figures are based on recent form,what they have already done on the track as opposed to the post's adjusted and what they might do.

true 118d 24h (118d)
blue 95e 27h (111e)-converted to grade 101d
sir 100d 24s (107d)
barton 83d 20s (103d)
84f 24s (104f)-converted to grade 84d


laid out like this its easier to see the advantage true north holds.

barton nic has better recent form over shorter and when you look at its runs over todays trip it does fall way short.

on these figures maybe 2 straight f/c

true north-blue
true north-sir

or two tricast for the adventurous

true north-blue-sir
true north-sir-blue

max.

I see you both have an interest in dogs, but do you have any BAGS back results? I've been looking around online and can't find much other than say the last rolling month. Any ideas?

Etrigan

Hi Etrigan
You might like to try http://www.tractorboy.co.uk/Pages/ASPFiles/Dogs/dogsmenu.asp.(hope this is alright Gummy)It's a database of BAGS results i.e Winning traps, Forecast results etc.
Regards
Gastric

Hi, me again
Just posted above then realised I had a question-DOH!!
Max,You mention in an above example a dog running for instance an A2 time in an A3 race.Is there any specific way to find the times (standard times?) for a certain grade at a certain track.I think I've asked this question before, but with little success-it was probably before you were on the board.Any ideas greatly appreciated.
Regards
Gastric

Diamond Geezer!

Etrigan

Gastric,
To get the standard times for each grade you have to get hold of around 100 or so winning results for each grade, add up the winning times ( not forgetting to add/subtract the going allowance) and then find the average time. That will be be the standard for the particular grade. Its very, very time consuming but you will then have a set of times for your particular track which are a) fairly accurate and more importantly b) unique to you.
I can honestly say that it is very worthwhile to do. It may seem daunting but just do it for your local track first and the benefits will soon become clear.
regards,

Cheers Stata,
I had a horrible feeling that this was the way to do it-I was just hoping that somewhere there was a record of standard times.
Right then, Swindon A8's...............
Kind regards
Gastric

1:50 Hunt. 24GS
Loking at this race has thrown up a quandry for me using this method. First four in the betting rated.

Cresswell Key - Quoted as Fav mainly because of low weight today. Best PM 121, all previous races low class, trainer and jockey poor record, I'm leaving Cress. alone.

Putsomethingby - Consistant on the PM's at 128 but at grade D, 3 times beaten Fav twice with McCoy on board and stepping up in grade today. John Joe dodgey and back with Cooper on board so not sure but will also leave alone.

Keltic Hertitage. - Its LTO gives it a 124 A2. I would prefer to ignore this run as again in the main it runs at grade D & E with PM of 123. Has a jock Kozak (1-4) claiming 7Lbs, could be in with a chance.

Itsonlyme - Grades miles above the rest at 136 A and has all the credentials to win apart from its Lto in a Grade C @ 116 were it fell but also was never in contention. Ignoring this last run makes it a very good proposition @ 11/2.

This is my quandry. I'm ignoring Keltics Lto and I'm ignoring Itsonlyme Lto. Am I basically back fitting the figures to make Itsonlyme a bet. Looking at them in their raw form the bet would be Keltic @ 4/1. I don't think it's a race to dutch as Putsome is a thorn in the side.

Will probally go Itsonlyme e/w.

Any thoughts?.

Just brought to the top

WP

In case anyone goes to the bother of checking wether I was talking Rhubarb, (as if), the above race at Huntingdon would have run as above had the meeting not been abandoned.