i think we will have to agree to disagree.we could go on from now till the derby back and forth with this.

the only thing i will take up from your last post is when you mention class from a c to d.postmark v topspeed.

i would take preference with the d class form if 10+ points clear of the c class form,as explained at the begining of the thread.
the postmark ratings method differs from top speed because a horse can win a class c race in a slower time than a class d race over the same c/d.
if for example i had horse A run a class c race in 70 seconds and horse B run a class d in 67 seconds i would not automatically assume put against each other horse A would win,unless the handicapper had been at them.
it makes no difference to me that horse A ran against better class animals when running 70 seconds.horse B running one grade lower against suppossed animals of lesser ability has covered the same ammount of ground under the same conditions and at the end of the day has ran 3 seconds faster than horse A has ever managed to do.
you dont suppose if horse A was dropped in class it would make it run any faster do you?and by the same token if horse B was raised in class it would not make it run any slower.

i am a big follower of greyhound racing where dogs are graded up and down every few runs dependent on current performance and if you believed that speed in different classes effected the result then you would not see upgraded greyhounds winning races.
there are plenty of examples of dogs running a decent time in say an a7 grade and going on to complete the double or treble in a6 and a5.
the reason for this is that allthough competing against better class dogs in each progressive run they have the basic speed to cope with the class rise.which is the point i am trying to get across.

anyway good luck.

chepstow

12.55 3rd
1.30 lost
2.05 won
4.20 won

musselburgh

12.45 2nd/3rd
1. 20 won/2nd
1. 50 won
3. 05 2nd/3rd
3. 40 2nd

wolverhampton

1.10 won
2.20 lost
2.55 won
3.30 won
4.00 2nd

of the ones especially mentioned to win or dutch-only autumn stroll failed to win.
glenmoss tara going in at a very generous price considering the opposition.

so a 50% win s/r just from the shortlisted runners without even looking at form or suitability in any detail and a win/place s/r of 85.2%.

Keep on keepin on mate,remember the old Northern soul.Your ratings are solid,Anybody who can't see this are blind.Good luck my friend.

Max,

I think you are right, and we will have to agree to disagree. I will answer your questions out of politeness.

I know nothing about greyhound racing, so the only answer I can give is based on logic. The shorter the distance the more chance anything or anyone has of getting closer to the record or standard. More 5f sprinters can get within 2 seconds of the standard than 12f horses.

The other question re horses A and B. For me it isn't about can they run faster or slower in a different class. It's about can horse B maintain the pace in the higher class against better horses? Less chance of a blow with horses used to a stronger pace, if it slows for a split second it can lose position, etc. I have to agree 3 seconds may not seem much, but the way I work it's a lot. I have the average difference between a C and D race (over 8f) 1 second (about 5 lengths).

Long live the difference of opinion.

Be Lucky

thank you for replying.whatever the ins and outs one thing is for sure both you and i will continue to pick winners.

happy hunting.


i am going to close this thread down now with regard to picking horses at least.
i think i have shown enough examples for anybody following to be able to do it for themselves.
i will of course answer any questions that may arise and unless anyone has one then i will cease to post here.
good luck if you follow this idea and always back winners.
max.

Massive thanks Max.
Before this thread I wouldn't have touched a handicap with a barge pole and now they are the first races I look at.

Excellent method.

Max,
I have found the thread very interesting but do have a question if I may which I will illustrate using the handicap chase at Kempton on Saturday.
If Seebald and Young Devereaux were to meet again in the near future in similar conditions their respective best of 3 ratings would be:-
Seebald 172 class A
Young Devereaux 160 class A (ie their ratings from Sat's race)
The difference between the 2 is effectively the weight carried on Sat but if I have understood correctly the initial evaluation would point to Seebald as being in with a good chance.
So the question is do we bring weight carried into the reckoning during the review process?
It's the only bit that puzzles me when looking at handicaps and am therefore unsure as to how to handle it.
Thanks for thr time put into this thread and good luck with your latest challenge.

Graham

you have touched on a very interesting point.i would like to look at the race in question and take the time to answer with the response it deserves so can you bear with me and i will get back to you when i have more time.

max.

MAX.

I have just managed to catch up with the all the threads after a busy Xmas & an hectic New Year.
I would like to say a big thanks for spelling out the clearest & most readable methodology for using form ratings that I have ever read anywhere.
I'm only practising at the moment, though i'm starting to get a grip of things.
Thanks again Max, like Gummy & others on this site, you're a man with a generous spirit.
Regards Peter.
p.s.
good luck with your £5k challenge.

i am very surprised that after two months of this thread being on the board no-one has mentioned the weight factor before now.
when i originally posted this idea up i expected many questions regarding postmark ratings but decided to leave weight out of the workings until at least someone wanted to know the relevence.
i have been putting up my own horses and the selections where significant have been made with weight given or received taken into consideration.
the example you give seebald and young devereaux is a very good starting point because they have met twice with varying degrees of weight difference so i have gone over their last three races and list the example out below,if you have any questions then please ask.


when i posted the race up on the 21st dec these were the figures i used.

SEEBALD 163a-05/11/02-weight carried today 11/12
YOUNG DEVEREUAX 145b-1/12/01-weight carried today 10/1

from this you can see seebalds has a 18 point/lbadvantage over the other and in a class one grade higher.from this i concluded that young devereaux who had not run for over a year had something in the region of 18lb to find with seebald but a few alteration to that calculation were needed.seebald's pm was achieved in a class A so that gives it another 10 points/lb's making 28 but to level that out a bit young devereaux has a weight advantage of 25lb,so in theory seebald went into that race 3lb well in.that is of course assuming they both ran up to their recent level of form.
when considering this i had i concluded that young devereaux would need to run up to its best mark to hold seebald at these weights and considering it was coming back off from a long lay off and had obviously had problems in training i assumed todays race would be asking to much.
as it happens it ram a blinder and went on to beat seebald a lengh.
i thought seebald ran superbly that day with 11/12 on ground not really suitable,it had rained all morning and had softened up considerably.

moving on to the race 18/01/03 and the revised best pm's were as follows-

SEEBALD 163a 05/11/02 allthough its run above on the 21/12/02 showed it to have held its form 172b being within a lb of its best-weight carried today 11/5

YOUNG DEVEREAUX 151b 21/12/02-weight carried today 10/4.
you will have noticed it had an improved pm of 6 lb's/points.so in winning its last race had in fact impoved on last years best(01/12/01)to the tune of 6lb's/points.

in this race seebald still had a 12 point advantage and one grade higher equalling 22 points but the weight pull this time of 15lb's narrowed it down to 7.

so the question was will young devereaux come on again,remember it improved last time by 6lb's.in theory with clear rounds it needs to find 7lb with seebald.
weknow from its last couple of races seebald has held its form and could reasonably be expected to run to its true mark but by how much if any would young devereaux come on?
if you watched the race where young deveraux beat seebald a lengh (21/12/02)you cannnot fail to have noticed how it pitched over the last and nearly threw the race away,it must have cost a good few lenghs therefore the 6lbs worth of improvement was most likely a very conservative estimate.who knows by just how many more pounds he will come on.the horse had only ran five times over fences before this race and all things being considered another 6lb's worth to win today was not asking that much more of the horse(especially if we take the view of another 3/4 pounds would have been added with a clear jump over the last lto because it would have won by at least three lenghs.)
as we now know young devereaux did indeed come on again and much more than the 6 lb estimate needed to win that race.its new mark of 160 class A is some big improvement on its old best of 151 in a class B.
nineteen pounds (10 for the jump A to B)is most likely a bit flattering and we will most likely see this levelling out as the season wears on to something like a 160 class B (150 class A)

however much the horse has come on it is certainly no where near seebald who himself has recored a new personal best lto.in going down a lengh again to young devereaux seebald scores a mighty impressive 172 class A.an impovment of 9lb on its previous best of 163 class A.

the revised postmarks now put seebald on 172 class A and young devereaux 160 class A.

so again in theory (its allways just theory as races rarely are perfectly run)and assuming they either progress at a similar level or their form remains static (levels out)seebald has 12lb in hand of young devereaux.
any more weight advantage given by seebald to young devereaux makes it vunerable.


i hope that answers your question.

max.

as a follow up to my last post regarding weight.it might pay to have a look at cheltenham tomorrow.
in the 12.55 keltic bard is very interesting and looks to hold a decent chance against the likely favourite translucid.check out its pm from three runs back in comparison with the field,noting the class achieved in and what it beat.
a half hour later classified is another good example of weight difference when meeting the same horse again.lto eternal springs beat him 5l,this time round getting a 6lb weight pull.does he even need it?

Max,
Great Post - thanks for that.
IMO we have to take a little notice of weight when looking at extremes such as the example we have examined and need to consider if a horse carrying a welter weight has done so in the past.
If the two horsee were to meet at levels in the Champion Chase I know where my money would go - the horse with the highest rating!
Thanks Again

Graham

just cant leave this thread alone and an interesting runner in limestone lad today.his last win over 16f gives it quite abit in hand over like a butterfly.for the e/w money a closer look at stage affair may be a good idea.

I don't really know if your all that interested in vdw.And under different circumstances Iwould have been in total agrrement r.e Limestone lad.But over today's distance it was a different kettle of fish.

If you look at the horses Statajack put up on the vdw thread.As coming through the process,I.e La landiere A piece of cake and Bleu superbe,And apply your ratings and B.Bs.You will see that all three horses had strong claims.

Going back to your bets on saturday,I very nearly let the first one run,The ratings and also from a vdw perspective the odds were strongly in Fireball Mcnamaras favour,and the eventual fav was most definately a false one.I was praying they would flip flop or go off jfs but alas we know the outcome.Basically what i'm trying to say is that your ratings along with B.Bs are a very powerful tool,And i thank you for sharing it with us.I respect your opinion and what you have brought to this board,I just hope you can pull off the 1000 to 5000,Good luck mate.

i certainly agree with you on yesterdays runners and you could have included lady cricket in that group.

i also can see your way of thinking today in ireland but from that race you really do have to conclude that for limestone to run butterfly so close over that distance either butterfly was seriously short of work and will come on considerably in six weeks or she is not that good.i favour the former after seeing her today but i doubt she will be good enough in march.

graham

if you would like to continue the weight issue maybe we could discuss some up and coming races on this thread where horses are meeting again with differing advantages.

Max,
Like yourself I'm well into greyhounds but I see the class element as crucial and would only back a dog with a time recorded in today's class.
Sure grade jumpers can win but only if they are either young improving dogs whose potential has yet to be realised as they make their way up the grades or older dogs with previous wins in today's grade who have returned to form after being dropped in grade(s) through being out of form. Best example of the latter is when a bitch wins after coming back from season, once that initial win takes place they can zoom up to their previous level remarkably quickly.
Otherwise backing grade jumpers will put you in the poor house.
regards,

and here are the strongest looking ones.

in no particular order.

vanoramix 2.00 exe
visability 2.30 exe *
one knight 3.05 exe
the villager 4.05 exe **
over the storm 1.20 kemp
hell of a shindy 12.45 kemp ***

* watch out for unraced hobbs horse andy gin.quoted at 7/1 but i know stable fancy it and will most likely go off 2nd fav.
** bonus bridge an interesting e/w horse.
*** worried about tremalt who would easily take this if fit and ready.

good luck.
max.

thanks for the interest but i am abit unsure as to whether you are agreeing with mtoto or myself.from what i can make out your post applies just the same with horses stepping up in class and i have read nothing to convince me otherwise that if the basic speed is there to cope with a class jump it should not count as a negative when looking at potential selections.
true generally speaking dogs upgraded do need a couple of runs to get the hang of things but countless examples on a daily basis of dogs winning again after an upgrade only strengthen my initial opinion.
basically if a dog wins a a8 race in an a7 time there is nothing stopping it doing it in that grade but the examples you have given do account for the majority of such instances.

max i have to disagree with seebalds assessment ...if youlook at his last 3 runs prior to his last run he had a topspeed of 126 ,129, 126 and last time only did 110 which suggests off 11-5 he ran well below his capability and it was in fact a slow race considering previous performances.a faster run rematch would be very interesting so dont be surprised if seebald wins next time.

seebalds personal best lto had nothing to do with the time the race was run.the posts handicapper obviously agrees hence the improved pm.it was more to do with weight carried in that class against the opposition.
proir to the race in question and using lifetime form as opposed to recent seebald had a best of 168 when second to moscow flyer in a class A but that was at level weights and its new improved pm was gained giving 15lb to a horse within the same class,you will have noticed seebalds new OR also giving further proof of the run lto bettering anything it had previously achieved.
like i said before at the rate of improvement these two have shown seebald giving young devereaux anymore than 12lb makes him vunerable.