Sorry, mate just read your last bit to Mtoto.
Without a doubt speed figs work well in non hcp jumps.
In a novice hurdle. for example you will often find that the fav and 2nd fav are either top speed or second top speed. In fact I reckon the top speed horse will be fav or 2nd fav 80+ of the time. Therefore I feel certain that the odds compilers take the SF strongly into account before compiling the odds. Also, again in a Nh for example the horses often haven't had many runs so there aren't too many figs to study.

In a hcp however the difficulty lies in deciding which of the figs are the most relevant. The latest, the best recent, the best in last year, the best in last 2 years?
And since usually all the runners will have at least 10+ figs each it can be mind boggling.

I see you use Postmark to good effect. Have you ever considered Postmarks from one or more years ago, or do you reckon the old figs are invalid?

I reckon that most big outsiders that win have old, form, or figs hidden in the past.
33-1 shots don't suddenly beat a field of good recent form horses for no reason,
I am certain some trainers, particularly small ones are prepared to be very patient and run horses in wrong class, distance, going etc so gradually the horse is written off by bookie and public and tipsters alike.
Taking the horse to the races dozens of times to lose costs a lot of money, but if you carefully bet £5000 through many different avenues in small amounts when the time is right at 33-1 you suddenly make £165000 for 2 or 3 years patient investment.
See what I mean?
Look forward to hearing from you,
All the best
Swish

going to have to answer you tomorrow.i had hoped to post about spped figures tonight but been up since 5 and the same again tomorrow,the mind wants to type but the eyes say no.
i had a look at the brimadon thread and ended up posting a long one which took me a while.

will get back to you.
thanks.

Thanks Max for your quick reply, looking forward to your speed figures,
Will come back again as Moto and Swish have raised some interesting sidelines.
Been looking at Nick Mordins book on how to make up ones own figures and how Dosage works, I am wondering if this is the method that JIB uses.
Thanks again MAX. warrington

the priciples-

colliers quay 107d/24gs/dee/113/107/113 21g
aquarius 111e/17gs/eee/111/ 76/111 17gs
the lyme 115c/24 s/ced/115/115/115 24s
saddlers 110d/27 s/ede/110/110/110 27s
mithak 109e/22 s/eef/109/109/109 23s

getting the no hopers out of the way first and starting with lord dal's 121 in a 10k irish race would if we could be sure it would reproduce that be a real danger but having unseated and pulled up in its two previous tries in this country i would wait for a glimmer of ability before seriously considering it especially with the jock being 0/36 at the course.
put up or shut up with a 106e to its name does not figure and with doubts surrounding its suitability to the distance and the jocks 1/22 is readily passed over.
great crusader is going the right way with a lto and best of 92 but that was in a lowly class g and cannot be expected to cope with a few of these.
tonka 73d shows it to be out of form.errigal 71f is all i can say about this one.galleons reach 100f has a least ground and trip to suit but the jocks 1/21 and the fact it has a best some 3st below the best of these speaks volumes as to its chances.

onto those with half a chance and AQUARIUS'S best of 111 in a class e needs big improvement to win this.it has been turned over in weaker races than this.the only positive thing i can say is that it may improve for the step up in trip but what with the trainer hype surely the 11/2 quote has no appeal.

COLLIER QUAY 107d over the trip and on soft deserves a mention but the jock lets it down on 0/28 at the course.lto in this grade it ran some 6lb's behind its best and today has to run off its best 113 mark so considering its best is a few pounds short of the selections lto mark it has it to do.

MITHRAK finally won a race lto 109 class e.the first one in nearly four years and do we think it can repeat that today?no,its 109 was obvously the best it ha done in the last 12 months but it is not good enough today stepping up in grade.

SADDLERS SECRET managed a 110 to which showed improved form on what it had already done.equalling its best of 110 means today it goes into the race with a fighting chance and is the clear 2nd pick over a trip that suits and going that poses no problems.its best from the last 12 months was achieved over 23f soft and it should follow the selection home today.

the selection of course being THE LYME VOLUNTEER whose lto 115 in a class c gives it a great chance.i would be concerned over this lto pm normally because the race was run in desperate conditions at ascot where only half the field completed.the horse that day had the assistance of a.p which must have been worth a few lenghs at the line.it narrowly went down in second place but managing to finish 18 lenghs clear of the remainder.this 115 equals its best which in turn gives more confidence behind its chances today.
allthough i suppose that 115 should be treated with caution i have backed this selection up with its 110 class d from 3 runs ago where it ran a good race over 24f on g/s.
so if you do not take the last run at face value the horse has to be a serious contender on its 110 class d.the trainer has a 30% s/r at the course and the jockey also an enviable record and for these reasons my 1/2 are.

1st THE LYME VOLUNTEER
2ND SADDLERS SECRET


good luck whatever you back.

max.

re 12.45 all that typing for so little reward.anyway onward and upward and as promised here are a few ideas on speed figures to be used inconjunction with the form evaluation method at the begining of this thread.

speed figures have been the subject of alot of disscussion on the board and the first question to ask is which ones to use?
i personally favour good old fashioned topspeed in the post,afterall its free and it is also convenient to have everthing on the same site.

more importantly i think is the need to be consistant and not chop and change.once you have picked one set of figures to use stick with it.

i realize this subject brings out strong differing opinions in one another and the following is purely my own opinion it may be right,it may be wrong but i am happy with it and after giving it a whirl its up to you to decide whether or not it has any validity.

i will kick off straight away by saying it makes no difference whatsoever in what class the speed figure was achieved in.that may sound a strange statement to make but a horse running 7f in 73 seconds with the same weight holds good in a group race or a claimer.isuppose that example is a little extreme but there is no arguing with the clock if a horse can run a certain distance in a certain time then the only thing to split the group race runner and the claiming stakes runner if competing against each other is actual weight on its back,otherwise they are going to dead heat if both running upto their best.
i do not think speed figures are nearly as important over the jumps,now there are a few respected members of this board who are most likely pulling their hair out about now but the way i see it is 2 or 3 seconds are neither here nor there over 3 miles in the mud on a wet monday afternoon.there are just to many other variables to consider.lets assume horse A given perfect conditions and after everything falls in place for it gains a very good speed figure.in effect its figure has been awarded after it ran an error free perfect race.what are the chances of that happening next time out or again within the next half dozen runs.there is 99% of the time something that goes wrong in the course of a race,the jockey got boxed in,had no sort of run,pecked on landing,set to fast a pace(re mr kavanagh 12.45 lud),gave the horse to much to do,even fell off and remounted and not just over the jumps the flat is even worse where draw bias is a big problem,horse getting cut up going for non existant gaps.
i suppose what i am getting at is to take a good speed figure at face value in n/h races and longer flat races is not something that i imediately look for.i will say though that you want to be reasonably sure your selection does have half chance and hasnt recorded a personal best ten minutes behind the rest of the field.

i do however think the speed figure is important on the a/w and all turf races upto a mile,above this distance horses obviously step down a gear and thats when by taking a speed figure literally you get into trouble.over sprint distances al thats required is all out acceleration for about a minute,you have to be able to sustain that speed but thats about all there is to it.when you step up in distance pace has to be judged and its no good setting off like a scolded cat only to be gasping for breath half a mile out.thats where the continual galloping type of horse comes into the picture,you know the one who sets off mid field and stays there,it doesnt really pick up toward race end,just stays on past the speedsters who have run out of puff.
the speed sters may have a better speed figure in fact i would be surprised if they did not because even the scolded cat will sometimes have the legs of the field and hang on in there but the consistant speed figures from the plodders should be noted and where appropriate be supported.
before i mentioned variables that can scupper a horses chances and high on the list must be different course characteristics where the speed horse are favoured on the tight tracks like chester the galloping types win hands down on the wide open newmarket straight.

if you are going to use speed figures the most important thing to remember is under no circumstances should you try to convert them distance to distance,thats to say if you only have 7f speed figure to work from and you are looking at a 5f race then do not try to take 30% off the clock,its no use saying horse a ran 7f in 70 seconds therefore it should run 5f in under 50 it just doesnt work like that,pace changes according to whats in front and whats coming from behind and you can be assured a horse out to win will be accelerating in the last 20% of the race so as to render converted figures useless.

so the way i do it is to simply take the best speed figure from the last 12 months over the distance and the best achieved on the going and average them out(all weather figures from track in question only)so if a horse has a t/s of 66 on going and 54 at distance its average is 60 and this is what i use.
this differs from postmark figures where i only use the best from the last three because the postmark is a guide as to the horses current form and scoring highly recently gives a clue to its wellbeing and potential for improvement and good recent form is what we are looking for.
its different with the topspeed because a horse can be in form winning a race but in a slow time but once its proved within the last 12 months that the basic speed is there and you have established its form is good enough to win the race then a t/s from months back is acceptable.only advancing years or extra weight is going to slow it down.

an easy way to get your figures without going through all their form is to click on the topspeed box next to the race in question.from this it will give you the best from the last 12 months on the going and at the distance.

max.

This should be an interesting evening,

some contentious points there max.

I think if we had sectionals you may have a different opinion about a group horse and a claimer running the same time.

i am a big believer in sectionals and without them dog betting would be a big no no but whatever the sectional time you cannot argue with the clock on the finish line.

I am not disputing that but I think we would find a "how it did it" rather than "what it did" scenario.

i think i have touched on a couple of points you have raised but the situation with nov hurdles is different because if a horse has ran a half decent speed figure first time out then it will invariably be made fav on its next run.lets face it with the majority of nov hurdle races you have sire/dam stats,trainer reputation or speed figures to go on.
the majority of nov hurdlers who achieved a good speed figure are made fav because because the bookies have a field of first timers with which to compare.it is also no surprise to see those with the benefit of that all important first run to have the edge over the newcomers thus creating a decent win ratio of speed rated runners.

the point you raise about past postmarks is a good question and there are two answers.firstly on a day to day basis i generally do discount them,its not because i consider them to be invalid its just that i cannot bet them in the hope of a form revival.a horse with a good pm from last season will have had a handfuls of chances to repeat it and in the long term i can afford to leave these out if they are only going to spring a big priced shock once in a season.
thats not to say i dont enjoy delving into past form in the hope of unearthing that big 33/1 handicap winner but only for fun and i cannot rely on those few and far between pleasant surprises to make a living.
a few saturdays ago paragon of virtue was such an example,scoring very highly last season but had had chances since,going into the race i knew anything like its old form would win the race but on this thrtead i discounted it thinking it was being lined up for a decent a/w prize next month,as you know it hacked up leaving me with egg on my face but the form was there and more fool me.

i hope thats answered your post,speak to you soon.

max.

its my fault i know but i did say the example was an extreme.
not very likely i know but used to illustrate a point.

maybe you could get your head around it better if i say a two grade class drop.

oh i can get my head round it alright, it might be confusing for some though.

Very interesting posts as always, thanks. I'm interested that you say that the figure has the same value regardless of the class of race, I would agree with that view but when I have looked at the figures in the post I got the impression that they were inflated for higher class races as if the class of race is included in the figure. This is the main reason that I have never used them. It would be nice to know what exactly a speed figure represents as it seems to include more than just the time taken for the run(?) I suppose in a higher class a horse would carry less weight so may be able to complete the distance in a quicker time, is this the explanation?

that is an interesting thought but i do not think class has a lot to do with it for example FLYING TREATY from 2 runs ago has a t/s of 38 for winning a class c h/c,in comparrison that old dodge pot WHITE PLAINS has a t/s of 44 for running down the field in a f claimer.
i think when allocating a t/s it is purely down to the clock with an adjustment for weight carried and surface conditions.

Okay, thanks for the reply.

no time today to post up any definate selectio0ns but i thought for anybody following the idea that i would post up my shortlist from all of todays races.
i must stress they are NOT definate bets,in fact all they are is postmark shortlisted horses,the ones where if i were betting the winner would more than likely come from.i have not checked their suitability to distance,going or trainer/jockey stats but thought it useful to demonstrate how often the winner comes from the shortlist.it will also be useful for anybody else doing the same thing to compare with their own.

chepstow

12.55 standaside 114d-tournaquet 108d
1.30 secret 83g-lord 79e-fireside 72e
2.05 possible 134d-nordic 114c-mistletoe 148a
4.20 bacardi 121a-stennikov 114e

musselburgh

12.45 no kidding 114e-stone cold 112d-clear water 118d
1.20 loaunen 112e-another 115e-ontos 118d
2.30 glenmoss 127a-clingstone 98e
3.05 indien 126d-curtains 107d-ocean 110c
3.40 autumn 97a-loopy 107h

wolverhampton

1.10 just wiz 85d
2.20 its all eurs 70d-lithuanian 72d-zufarah 64d
2.55 failed 68g-charles 63g
3.30 every note 79d-captain 75c
4.00 miss glory bee 65f

at first glance the 4.20 chepstow looks a good dutch.as does the 2.55 wolverhampton and the 3.30.
i like the chances of glenmoss and that 1/3 looks like money for nothing,it has nothing to beat.autumn stroll is surely not coming over for one and its 97a catches the eye.i would be wary of taking a short price on loaunen.

going to take an hour now to look into some of them and maybe play later.

good luck
max.

dug this out from last feb one of my first posts to the board and thought it may help.it relates mainly to an old system we were looking at but the general concept holds true.have also included an old example.


i have been looking into the prw system to try and find a common denominator linking the losers,the strike rate for this system is fantastic but with a very large number of selections being odds on the losers do to much damage to the bank.
there is obviously going to be divided opinion into my findings but that is after all the purpose of this forum to stimulate debate at the least.
the following are my own personal opinions and i would welcome any other insight from members.
i examined the 74 selections as follows-there were 46 winners/28 losers,the losers are what we are concentrating on.
this system appears to me to ignore one important point its what i call the human factor,this meaning the trainer/jockey performance.
of the 28 losers i could find no explaination as to why 2 of them did not win,on all known form they both had outstanding chances and the human factor confirmed this.i suppose this will have to be put down to the 2 horses having an off day.of the remaining losers 3 fell,an occurance that could not be determined beforehand just bad luck on the day.this leaves the remaining 23 but before i tell you why they did not win consider this-martin pipe the most successful trainer of his generation,sends out winner after winner,day after day then why do you think that last season he did not manage to train a winner of a chase at taunton on of his local courses?,why has he got an overall win record of only 2/17 at kempton.another example is richard johnson one of the top 5 jocks then why last season did he only have a 1/26 strike rate in sellers? and why did john dunlop fail to win a single race from 30 atempts at leicester or have no 4 year od plus winner at ascot?.
when considering any future prw selection i think it is vital that the following criteria is met-CLASS how does trainer perform in this class race?COURSE strike rate for both trainer/jockey.DISTANCE does trainer have an acceptable s/r?RACE TYPE if you are going to back the fav in a nov chase you want to know that the trainer has at least won one of these races before.JOCKEY which jockey is most suited to race conditions by number of winners in similar for trainer.
i personally would discount any runner whose s/r for above falls below 10%.
i will know go through the losers and tell you in my opinion why each one lost.
massey/lost-jock 2/21 class trainer 3/20
stromness/lost trainer 0/17 hurdles trainer wrong class,performs much better with runners in differant class races.
sparky gayle/lost 0/6 class/0/9 course
seed the light/lostt 2/31 class 0/19 dist
linea g/0/14 course
miniso/lost 0/12 course 6% overall
last option jock 1/24 overall 2/26
legal lunch/lost 5%/5% both c and d
albarahin/lost 0/15 course/wrong jock
mr combustable wrong jock 2/21 course
inchiri/lost 2/54
gay rann/lost jock 0/18
life is life/lost 0/17 hurdles
right to reply/lost 1/30 nov hur
michael de moeurs/lost wrong jock
pluralist/lost 6% hurdles
snow leopard/lost 2/23 overall
maximize/lost 0/4 class/0/7 maiden
do you see a patern emerging it can always be boiled down to one or more of a handful of factors regarding the trainer/jockey-class-dist-race type-course,remember we are talking about fancied horses usually odds on the question of form does not arise they must have proven themselves over similar conditions to be top rated by p.m/t.s.
i would also strongly suggest that any selections be also checked as regards the trainer current performance,i personally would not consider a trainer if they had gone more than 15 runners without a winner or had not at least been placed with a runner within the last 14 days.
i firmly believe that there is a reason why certain top trainers/jockeys perform badly at certain tracks and i think they have a certain mental block as regards future runners/rides they start to think negatively as to their chances and the result is often a forgone conclusion before the race already starts.they see themselves on the back of a losing run and subconsiously they perform below standard.very often all it takes is one winner at the bogey track to get them back on the winning trail in future races at the venue but often that illusive winner is very hard to find


HERE IS A EXAMPLE OF FILTER IN ACTION.

SEED THE LIGHT/ev fav/d maiden 3yo+ 12f/trainer-GL MOORE/jockey-I MONGON.

source-r/p online.

the following all concern trainer performance.
to start off with i looked at his s/r in different class races,the particular one i am interested in is a d class-s/r 6% this would mean the horse fails the filter immediatly,the trainer does best in lower class races.
for the purpose of this demo i will continue regardless of qualifing or not.
next i looked at distance-s/r 0 from 19=0% again fails filter min 10% guideline.the trainer does best in staying races.
next i looked at the 3 a/w courses to compare performance and lingfield came out tops so on this criteria the horse qualifies.
then i looked at race type and the trainers performance in maidens he had a 10% s/r which meant it just squeezed in.the trainer excells in claimers.
then we look at the jockey i.mongon who up until today was the stable jock for gl moore,his s/r was 16% out of all the freelance jocks who ride for stable i.mongon came out best.
then i looked at the jockey himself,checing what class of race he won most in,even when not riding for stable he had an overall s/r of 5% for d class races,so again a filter fail.
he was o k at the course riding at 11% but the distance was not good and another fail.
race type confirmed what the yrainer stat had already told us,jockey running at 4% and like his govenor did much better in sellers.
what was interesting was even though the trainer and stable jockey stats should obviously correspond as they did,the jockey still roughly returned the same s/r for other trainers in similar type races.
so the selection SEEK THE LIGHT was definitely a no bet.

just to remind everyone my cut off point for pass or fail each filter is 10%.
different members might like to make up their own minds as to a suitable % pass/fail.

hope this helps at least someone.
max

Max,

Your trainer/jockey filter I remember, filed it at the time. However, I do find it difficult to go through them all. So what I'm doing is overall at course/type of race and of course 14 days for trainer. Interesting one today in 3.05 Musselbrough is Indien du Boulay, as if you look at the trainer and jockey stats for HURDLES at Muss, they both fail rather miserably, 2% & 4%.

Keep up the good work

Oldtimer

Max,

A couple of points. Don't you think your example of Flying Treaty and White Plain disagrees with your statement about class not a factor with s/f? If you take those figures at face value you could be in trouble.

The other point 2/3 seconds is equal to 10/15 lengths, a big neither here or there. I do agree with most of your thinking about course distance, and going. I would humble suggest if followers of this thread are going to use speed they use the same thinking you apply to Postmark.

Anyway good luck for the future. If you choose to ignore my thinking, I really don't mind as the more that do helps my edge.

Be Lucky

re flying treaty-i do not understand your point,from what i see the example given only strenghens my original post.
ft in a class c 38
wp in a class f 44

if your idea stood up ft would have scored a significantly higher t/s because of grade difference.

in effect the t/s given to wp is more indicating the class of race to be insignificant and more to do with the clock.

also your point about 2/3 seconds equaling x ammount of lenghs is only relevent in a perfectly run race,of which you do not see many.
how many times have you watched your horse seemingly going great guns and pecking at one of the ditches.this causes the horse to slow up,it may if you are lucky get back into stride but the error has cost ittime on the clock.which in turn reflects its eventual t/s figure.
i do agree with you if the horse could put in an exhibition round but like i have already said it doesn't often happen.

Max,

I can only speak for myself. When I work s/f the higher the grade the faster the standard time. I don't know if this is how Top Speed works but I would be surprised if class wasn't taken into account with him.

I can't quite understand why you except form from a C race is stronger than form from a D race but not the speed from the race. Isn't the form dependent on the pace?

The only answer I can give about time = distance, is when the finishing distances are worked out it is done using time. (1 second = 5 lengths) This happens even if it wasn't a perfectly run race.

As I said in the beginning, the more people that discount speed the happier I am.

Be Lucky