with all the systems floating around i thought it high time to get back to basics and start to look at form study once again.
you basically fall into one or the other camps either rigid system rules where everyone bets the same horse or rely on your own interpretation of form study.
all along i have been a follower of the latter allthough recently i have been a big fan of tonys system because of the effortless way it has made money,however in the long run form study is allways the thing i fall back on even to check a runner that tonys system throws up.
what i am posting now is a very easy way of evaluating a horses chace in relation to the rest of the field.

form study-

here is the way to read and evaluate form easily and quickly.please bare with me at times it will seem like i am stating the obvious but i want to make sure you know exactly what i am saying because when you fully understand it you will be able to look at any race and know exactly what has chances and what does not.you will also know that you will bet winners on a regular basis regardless of the price be it a 6/4 favouirite or a 33/1 outsider.i have always had a 45% strike rate across the board whatever the price when only backing one horse in a race so you can appreciate just how much better that will get if you are prepard to dutch the two best selections from your analysis of a race.

1.first of all recent FORM 70%(thanks guest for the figures) of all races goes to one of the form horses,form does not just mean 1st and 2nd's its the class that the form was achieved in that is important.you may have a runner that has won 3 class f claiming stakes running against a horse that last ran 5th of 8 in a c class handicap,on the face of it all those 1's look good but when put in comparison with the runner who ran moderatly in a better class it does not look so promising.
so the first thing you do is go through all of the runners in the race and look at their last three runs(the ones that are relevant to todays race,dont take any notice of runs before this)when you look either in the racing post paper version or online you will see little numbers and figures next to the horses name along with the race comments for the particular past race you are looking at.
for example-big bad bob pm97 ts 55 (led three out,never headed) the numbers relate to pm= postmark,this is the racing posts private handicapper who asseses a horses previous runs and awards a points value called a postmark,in big bad bobs case 97(the other figure ts55 is the topspeed figure)
so we look at all the runners last 3 runs and pick the best postmark figure,so if big bad bob had for example pm97-pm94-pm91 for its last 3 runs then pm97 would be the one to pick,also when you have found the best pm from its last 3 runs also make a note of the class of race it was achieved in so again it might look something like this-big bad bob pm97 class d which shortened looks like this-bbb pm97/d
now go through all the runners and upto 10 runners use only the best 3 horses,over 10 runners pick the top 20% only,so in a 20 runner race you would pick only the top 4 horses with the best postmark from their last 3 runs.your list will look just like this-

big bad bob 97/d
susie sue 94/d
freddie boy 95/c
lucky lad 90/c

from this we can see bbb has the best pm but it was achieved in a lower class than freddie and lucky,now just by these ratings freddie boy would have a very good chance because it is only 2 points behind big bad bob but one grade higher.races are graded as follows group 1/2/3 listed a/b/c/d/e/f/g and generally speaking for a horse to win in a higher class it needs to have a pm 10 points higher than a runner who achieved its pm in the grade it is running today.that is to say bbb's last run in a class d scoring 97 is not enough to beat freddie or lucky whose rating was achieved in a higher grade,for bbb to have a good chance it would need a best pm of at least 100 (10 points higher than the nearest runner in a higher grade)true sometimes the runner who is stepping up in grade will improve and go on and win again but i will explain how to spot that later.
so at the moment freddie boy looks good but we need to check further to see which runners are competing above themselves and which are 'well in'(a racing term used to indicate a horse who is favourably treated on what it has already shown on past form)
so from a 20 runner race we only have 4 potential winners all in a matter of 10 minutes next we need to look at the postmark ratings either in the paper version of the post or the online version(an important point here is that if you use the online form then the postmark ratings are ADJUSTED this means that the posts handicapper has tinkered around with the horses rating according to the weight it is carrying today and how he expects the horse to perform under the conditions i.e on the ground/at the distance.in my opinion a load of rubbish.what you want are the UNADJUSTED figures these show a horses true chances and are much more reliable.the unadjusted figure is found simply by first calculating the difference in weight a horse is carrying today and 10 stone.so if bbb has an adjusted pm of 104 and today he is carrying 9st 7lb the difference in weight is 7 (lb) so take 7 off 104 to give you 97 and thats his unadjusted pm rating(the handicapper was really telling you that bbb could be expected to run 7lb better today under the conditions)if you are using the paper post then the pm is already shown as unadjusted so you do not need to make the conversion.right we now know that we want the pm unadjusted so click on to the postmark ratings for the race you are looking at (or if using paper version look at the handicap chart,its is listed alongside the official handicap ratings,the one where it shows you the officail h/c rating for the last 6 runs)when you click on to the postmark ratings(you will see the little box to click onto next to the trainer/jockey info)it shows you the latest postmark rating achieved,the best postmark rating achieved within the last 12 months and on the far left before the horses name todays postmark rating(remember to adjust todays rating,the others are ok)so go back to your list of four runners and looking at the first one bbb write down its pm today,its pm latest and its pm best.your list will know look like this-

big bad bob 97/d 96/97/99
susie sue 94/d 94/94/94
freddie boy 95/c 92/95/101
lucky lad 90/c 99/90/90

so working across we can see bbb has a best pm from last 3 of 97 achieved in class d.its pm today is 96,its latest pm is 97 and its best pm is 99.this tells us that it has a chance on its last run because it has only been raised 1 point but to win today it will need to improve on what it has already achieved because freddie boy has ran a 101 in a higher class.more about this later.
next starting with bbb we want to find out its highest class win so click onto horses form and then click onto winning form so it is easier to see if the horse has won in a higher grade or at least equal to todays grade.again heres how it will look.

big bad bob 97/d 96/97/99 d
susie sue 94/d 94/94/94 e
freddie boy 95/c 92/95/101 b
lucky lad 90/c 99/90/90 d

next we check that the 4 on the list are suited to the going and distance,again click on horses form and put a tick or a cross next to the horses name,a tick for suited to the going or a cross if not suited or unproven.a tick for suited to the distance and a cross for either not suited or unproven at the distance.as a general rule (allthough with younger horses you have to be careful)if they have not won or at least been placed over corresponding conditions then i give tham a cross.

i have no ticks so for the purpose of the example i will put a ! to mean ok (tick) or a x if unsuited to either going or distance.

big bad bob 97/d 96/97/99 d ! x
susie sue 94/d 94/94/94 e x x
freddie boy 95/c 92/95/101 c ! !
lucky lad 90/c 99/90/90 c x !

finally we check to see if the trainer/jockey have good enough course form (you must also check trainers current form over last 14 days)make a note against each runner with ticks and crosses again according to the trainer/jockeys track record.so if the trainer has a minimum 10% strike rate then his/her runner gets a tick or if trainer falls below 10% then that runner gets a cross,the same for the jockey.

here is what the final table looks like

big bad bob 97/d 96/97/99 d ! x ! !
susie sue 94/d 94/94/94 e x x x x
fredddie boy 95/c 92/95/101 c ! ! ! !
lucky lad 90/c 99/90/90 c x ! x !

nearly there now,from the finished list we have narrowed a 20 runner class c race down to 4 potential selections.we have noted that big bad bob has the best piece of recent form with a pm of 97 but in a lower class.freddie boy is second best scoring 94 in a class higher it has also won in a class c grade unlike big bad bob and susie sue who have only won in lower grades.
the point of laying it all out like this is to give you a clearer picture as to the strengh and weaknesses of the sheortlist.

now all you have to do is weigh up each ones individual strenghs and weaknesses,lets go through each one on the list and pick the winner.

big bad bob-has the highest pm but in class d (todays race is class c)it has never won a race of todays class so why should it change that today? because its best pm is 99 in a lower class it will need to improve today (bear in mind that to perform one grade higher its pm should be 10 points clear of next best horses pm)when compared to the others it has the beating of susie sue (highest pm of 94 in an even lower class e) last time out its latest pm was 97 compared to susie sues best ever 94.big bad bob is suited by the distance but doubts about the going.its trainer is ok as is his jockey.

susie sue has little chance compared to the rest only scoring 94 best pm ever it will need to improve to beat any of the other runners,it is stepping up in class and has only ever won in lower class,it has doubts surrounding distance/going/trainer/jockey and can be safely discounted.

freddie boy has the second best piece of recent form with a 95 pm in the same class as todays race,it has the best pm of 101 from its best ever run so if freddie boy runs upto its best it will win,it has a best class win equal to todays race and is suited to the conditions and the trainer/jockey both pass the filter.

lucky lad has it all to do today running off a mark 9lb's higher than its best ever 90,it has won in this class but not off a mark of 99.its best ever pm of 90 suggests it has not got much chance against freddie boy,big bad bob or even susie sue who all ran better pm's last time out when compared to lucky lads best pm.

CONCLUSION
if a horse horses latest pm is better than anothers best ever pm then this is the one to concentrate on it may improve for the run.improvers are noted by comparing their latest pm and their best pm(like susie sue who scored 94 last time and also has a best pm of 94,this tells us susie sue is improving but not enough to trouble freddie boy because of the grade difference in class runs.susie sue last ran in class d which is one grade lower than freddie boys class c.for susie sue to trouble freddie boy she would have needed a latest pm of 105 in class d (10 points clear).
remember compare recent form and class it was achieved in.use postmark to see if runners are being asked to do more today than previously (like lucky lad who is being asked today to run off a mark of 99 which is 9 more than ever done before).check runners are suited to toays conditions.check trainer and jockey pass filters.
so as you have most likely worked out freddie boy would be the selection in this example.
it may look complicated but with a bit of practice all of the above will take no longer that 10 minutes regardless of the number of runners.so next time you are faced with a 30 runner handicap you will be able to quickly work out which runners have the best chance of winning.you will often find that the runners on your shortlist fill the places so with good prices forecasts and even tricasts can pay big money for a small stake.if you use this you will more often than not have the winner of the race in your shortlist.
i have most likely forgot something or not explained something clearly so ask away if anybody not clear.

max.

Well done MAX,
The above POST is (without doubt) one of the best to appear on this board, yes (IMHO) in my humble opinion. WELL WORTH (TEN ********** STARS)

Be-selective

yep good stuff Max
if anyones interested on www.cdsystems.uk.com theres a "do your own ratings" page which you can adopt however you like & has its uses
not my website by the way!

Good post,

with the ratings thing it is also worth considering what the ratings were achieved against.

if the rating was 95 against other horses in the race rated 110 off more or less level weights then thats also a big plus, if it got its 95 recieving weight from 2 rated 80 then not so good.

question....
do you still use your 80/20, class/dist filters as in pro-punting ?? - I guess it's second nature for you, stupid question really, but it leads onto the next...

If so do you eval the form before or after reducing the field ??

cheers

yes i still use 80/20 allthough not so much over the jumps where you find plenty of little trainers with only half a dozen horses who do very well without figuring on an 80/20 list.
the dist stats etc i also use.

as you know i am still quite new to this computor lark and only within the last year have i taken an interest so now i mainly use the post online instead of the paper version which enables me to look at a race that much quicker regarding all the trainer and jockey stats.before this i used to check all trainer/jockeys before looking at any form but now i do it the other way around and start by narrowing the field as in the above example only then do i check the 10% rule.
as i said before doing it this way only takes maybe 10-15 mins for each race before you have a good idea as to potential bets.at least then you do not waste valuable time checking stats on all runners only to find the ones that pass the 10% rule have little chance on known form.

thanks max....

Max,

Interesting as always, so I tried it out today in comparison with mine and came up with the same horse. I hope you will concur.

Oldtimer

oldtimer
i would agree bin it does look like it has a good chance today even with top weight.
its pm of 119 class b at kempton earlier this year looks rock solid carrying 11-9,it will also go in the ground.it also ran a good race last week on its firt run of the season so does look interesting.
the likely fav camp nou whilst it does pose a threat if improving does have doubts surrounding it on ground this soft and surely the price reflects the trainer/jockey more than what it has already shown us on course.
while bin it would be my selection in the race it isn't the strongest bet of the day by any means and i doubt i will be sticking my money down.

Great MAX, now what about a daily leson starting next monday and go through stage by stage, say for three or four days so that old codgers like me who their senior moments can understand your posting. If you can I shall go and sharpen my pencil and buy pad of paper. warringto. now then enough cheeky.

time to dust down the mortar and gown.

Great post MAX

Very interesting and puts a profitable slant on form evaluation which should be of great value to us all.

Thanks for the time and trouble.

ED

Great posting Max.
Invaluable to say the least.
Well worth printing off and reading a few times over.

Hello MAX,
My shortlist for tomorrow,
Southwell 2.15 Indian Steppes
Southwell 3.50 Reminiscent / Daunted
Kempton. 3.35 Knightsbridge King / Fabrezan

(whats your thoughts on the above)

will have a look and post in morning

questions,questions...


trying to work through this so

12:45 Kempton

is this correct ??
proper squire adj=116 unadjusted=130 (24lb over 10st)

and
why no PM for lady felix?? has had them in the past

???

and another

do you have any idea on this ??

12:45 Kempton
Bold King
current adjusted=118
now r/p online shows PM for 19/10/02 as being 106

I have racecard from r/p online for that day and it show PM of 131

cheers
s

Hi Max.
Your ability to put into written word what's in your head with such ease is in itself a trade. Well done. Are you a former head master?.

1:- On the adjusted PM (which I never understood) when horses are carrying over 10 stone do you subtract from what?. 12 stone?.

Cheers - Mikey

only just starting to look at todays racing so will post later but regarding your querry PROPER SQUIRE 12.45 kempton.
this is my fault as i should have explained when you are using n/h postmarks as opposed to the flat the adjustted postmark is worked out to 12st and not 10 st as is the flat.this is because obviuosly the minimum weight over the jumps is much more than flat racing.the principle is exactly the same though so if you look at the horse you mentioned and today its carrying 11st 10lbs with an adjusted pm of 116 all you have to do to get the unadjusted figure is take the difference in weight carried today to 12 st which in this case is 4lb so the unadjusted figure is 112.
just remember n/h work from 12st.flat work from 10st

will post later this morning.

just saw your post so here are 2 quick examples.

flat
lucky lad 8st 7 lb's adjusted pm of 95

so the weight difference from lucky lads 8st 7lbs to 10 st is 21lbs.so subtract 21 from 95 giving 74 is lucky lads unadjusted pm.


n/h
lucky lad 10st 4lbs adjusted pm of 112

so weight difference from lucky lad's 10st 4lbs to 12st is 24lbs.so subtract 24 from 112 giving 88 is lucky lads unadjusted pm.