Happy Valentines Day to everyone (except Bailiffs).

Another day of very limited opportunities. No play on "soft" going, so jumps are out. No 5 or 6 furlong sprints. And I shouldn't be looking at anything less than a Class 3 race - although I have been forced to stretch this recently.

In addition, the race should take place about 3.30 (and preferably on ATR) - as this is when Mrs T is out on the school run

Looking at the Class 4 Southwell 3.30 today.
BLUE PATRICK is progressive and looks to be worthy favourite - but no way a bet for us at about 2/1. I like the look of COUNCELLOR, has entry in the Lincoln and comes out slightly on top of my shortlist.

BUT, I'm playing with my wedding ring, and what's this engraved on the inside? TE QUIERO
along with the date of my marriage. You see, I got married in Spain where it is the custom to have this done. Now, it being Valentines Day, and Gay Kellaway being a girlie - has she laid out this horse for today?

No no, have I lost my marbles

Am I going to start backing horses on the basis of names having personal significances? No not at all. On my figures, the horse is closely matched in the top 4 and therefore should have a live chance of making the frame. At 16/1 it looks value - but unfortunately fails to make it as a full selection.

I shall just take a few pennies out of the Golf Bag and put £10 e/w on at 16/1

Down 14lbs and with Master Kelly riding all out to the line( ) should make a place. The interesting one for me, if handling the layoff, is Red Contact with track figures of 12122 may be worth a punt in the place market at around 3.05. May very well need the run but nothing ventured etc...!

4.6 the place on Te Queiro did nicely...ta yet again! RC obviously did need a run!

Thanks Kingsley,

A close 2nd !!

A bit of change to add to the Golf Bag today,

£22.00 to be exact, taking it up to

£3,565.75

8 days left

Ling 4.20

DANGER ZONE £50 e/w at 10/1

Astounding stuff Trojan !!! Sadley I missed it by a minute but I hope you and others were on

Trojan,

Somebody up there obviously feels you're the bee's knees!

Well done yet again; do you need any help carrying that golf bag?

Oldtimer

Hell's teeth....very impressive yet again young Sir. More thanks!!

.

Thanks Guys,

Straight to the point this morning, I wanted the horse to do the talking

I must admit I personally had a bit extra on today (16.5 win on Betfair) as well as the usual e/w at the Bookies.

Well, that's £600 profit today from Sporting Odds (I wouldn't mind, but they pushed it out to 11/1 after I placed my bet - and WHY haven't I been backing "win-only?")

Stuffing that in the Golf Bag takes it to

£4,163.75

with 7 days left

Trojan

Blinkin' Heck (or words to that effect).

This must be one of the best threads on the net!!

I've stopped my mortagage payments in the hope that they threaten to send the bailiffs around......

Thanks Pitmatic,

Very kind of you.

I think it's fairly safe to assume that at least the thread will end in profit....I hope

Im nearly speechless with the results Trojan,
And miffed ive got to go to work and miss them,But i could give up work

Well done again and Good luck

Hello Trojan, Mega Galactic Member, the Force is definately with you. Carry on like this and you can pay the bailiff to drag your ever increasingly heavy golf bag around the course for you. I don't back as heavily as you but I enjoy putting you selections in with some of my own to make eachway doubles. Today I picked two losers and a four to one winner which gave me a 54/1 win double and a 5/1 place double. Thank you Trojan. All the Best, Tyro

Thanks Guys,

Well done Tyro - 54/1 - nice going . The amount staked is all relative. We have quadrupled the bank in 3 weeks from simple level e/w staking. So, a £10 bank would have grown to more than £40. A £5,000 bank to more than £20,000. And, as you have seen, my simple staking method is probably doing the results no favours. I should be at least increasing the stake as the bank grows.

I looked at a race last night and thought I had found a nice value bet for today - but "idiots" on Betfair have been taking half the forecast price!!!! So, I doubt early prices will be anywhere near the f/p. I'll post again when I find out.

Good luck to you all.

The horse is now being matched on Betfair at less than one-third of its f/p

Taking your thoughts about backing to win only, and at the risk of teaching grandmothers, eggs, sucking etc., I imagine that you have thought of the place part of the bet as a hedge just to recover the whole stake?

I'm also intrigued as to why Bookmakers rather than Betfair where, as you know from your "little extra" yesterday, the prices are higher. Have you as a matter of interest compared the Betdaq ew market with the Bookmakers? Liquiity on Betdaq may be an issue possibly but I have no knowlege one way or the other, might be worth checking out though. Anyway whatever you do is working so please ignore my remblings !

Hi Kingsley,

Yes, I do sometimes back on Betfair, and adjust the win/place side of the bet.

But 2 points:

For the purpose of this thread, I wanted to show what was fairly achievable by all Gummyites. First of all I use only the information freely available on the RP website for the selections. I then take an Early Price from a Bookmakers - which can, I hope be attained/checked. I often "fish" for higher prices overnight on Betfair, but do not think it fair to calculate the profits at this price. Apart from the lack of availabilty - I could (but I wouldn't as I'm not a cad) easily "inflate" the price I had taken. I do, however, take the "liberty" of calculating the profits at the Early Price I have taken with the Bookies.

Second point. I'm a simple person and unfortunately not in the best of health. I often spend enough time on making the selection to wear me out for the day. I just haven't got the time/strength/patience to try to improve prices and staking methods - I often get very grumpy trying to match prices - I find it difficult to just leave bets unmatched and "wait and see". If I'm happy with a Bookie price - I put it on - job done - mind at rest.

Right on to today, I was hoping for nearer to the 16/1 f/p for this horse - when I looked on Betfair last night it was already trading at below 10/1 - so I left it, bad move, as I have now taken:

Southwell Beach 4.20 SET ALIGHT £50 e/w at 7/1 (VC)

Thanks for the explanation and all perfectly understood and appreciated. Your generosity in sharing these selections with us is also very much appreciated.

kind regards,

kingsley

I feel very humbled,

We've had a fair share of luck and the odds are that we will hit a losing run soon.

I'm no VDW you know

This message has been edited. Last edited by: Trojan,