spacedout

This one got me aswell, and after going up and down the list for some time it then dawned on me, we haven't got a 80/20 list for the jumps. The one that max gave us is for the flat, but do we use stephen mainwarings.

Kis

all of the jockeys except one are given the benefit of the doubt as they have only had a handful of runs so the question of % do not really matter.
kis your figures match up with mine apart from the fact that you seem to multiply the total by 10.
as you see the fav falls short that is why i consider it to be a false fav but looking at the stats for all other trainers no others come close to passing and skye blue comes out well on points total and flys through filters not to mention the fact that it only gets into this race on the back of 2 moderate last runs.the only concern is that they go a decent pace to bring its stamina into play because over this trip it does need a good gallop.
good luck.
max.

i only posted up the 80/20 for flat because that is where i am concentrating on now,the difficult donny card today swayed me back over the jumps.
with reference to the 80/20 list-if your trainer/jockey passes the filter it is 99 times out of 100 a sure bet that they make the list anyway,an exception to this would be a jockey or trainer that has a terrible record everywhere all bar a couple of courses hence not making the list but does pass filter for that particular course,it is not very likely though.
with regards to stephens list i can not say for sure but he is a flat man and i do not think he has posted the n/h list.
when i get time i will work on one but it will not be for a few days.
max.

MAX

When you mention about the horse being OUTCLASSED, and goin off the figures below, would you not say that SKYE BLUE was being outclassed by CELTIC JUSTICE or as the gap got to be larger between the 2 before you can come to that conclusion

SKYE BLUE...20 50 90...FDD...11.3/10.13/11.6=1584
CELTIC JUSTIC...60 20 100...CEB...11.3/11.10/11.5=1792
ROCKY ISLAND...50 20 20...DFG...11.3/11.3/10.11=900
SURE FURTURE...30 30 20...FEF...10.9/10.6/11.9=776
AUDIOSTREETDOTCOM...30 50 50...DDD...10.7/10.1/10.5=1300
DALCASSIAN BUCK...40 30 40...DED...11.2/11.3/10.7=1140
SORELY MISSED...50 70 20...DDF...10.12/10.0/10.4=1408
POLISH PADDY...20 20 20...FFE...10.5/10.2/10.12=608

And also where can i find, where the horse as been drawn.

Cheer's and thank's again Max

Kis

looking at your figures SKYE BLUE comes 2nd on the list of 8 well within the guidelines,the other runner SURE FUTURE though looks up against it and its only the awful stats for the rest that make SURE FUTURE the saver in the bet.
max.
P.S dont know why i have been calling it sure quest in earlier posts.

the last question you ask about draw-do you mean on the flat? if so its usually bracketed next to the horses name depending on which paper you use.

Max

Tremendous work. Personally I quite like Celtic justice and sorely missed - the figures as you say do really highlight potential weak favourites

On another note do you ever use a filter say that a horse must have a win to run percentage of 20% or more - apologies if I missed this

i do not really have a rule regarding this and judge each runner on my opinion of how i hope it will perform on the day but without giving it to many chances if it dissapoints.
your suggestion sounds like a great idea though and one well worth considering.
max.

The Pro/Max

I would never have believed, if someone had said to me,
"I`m going to show you how to win on the horses with confidence and consistency, and oh, by the way, I`m not particularly interested in the actual horse, I just need it`s name to write on the betting slip"

Max, tell me that Elvis is alive, I`ll go and buy a ticket for his next show.

Yours

111
.

kis im going on your fig for newbury i think max will agree they should look like this
sky blue 152
celtic justice 180
rocky island 90
sure future 32
audiostreetdotcom 138
dalcassion buck 142
surley missed 156
polish paddy 44

regards florence

i looked at vfb form horses today its intersting in the race we rated they make the winner sure future we make it the worst in, intersting what do you think
regards florence

i think they are taking the race at face value and at first glance sure future does look good but when you delve deeper you get a clearer picture of the likely outcome.
i hope.
max.

probably wrongly but I have layed Sure Future at 2 to 1 . He will of course now go and win - but hes terrible value

MAX/FLO

The reason i was getting this whole thing wrong was because i was getting very low figures that didnt match up to flo's, of which you said were correct, then i asked flo to help and found out why, and she stated

"last 3 prize= 2030 i add the digits and put a nought on the end"

So now i'm putting the nought on at the end and that is why my figures are higher, i'll stop doing it now. So really i was not getting it wrong all at all, just getting confused.

Hope you can understand that as i cant.

Cheer's Kis

Right Max and anyone else who's looking in.
I still dont agree with flo, one of us is getting it wrong and it is probably me, so i've wrote down my findings below and would appreicate it if you would go over them and let me know where i'm going wrong

SKYE BLUE...........20+50+90=160.......FDD=+8....11.3/10.13/11.6=-24=160+8-24=144
01Mar02Don20Sft F4y+ ClaimHdl(2K)5/1439+L, Nouveau Cheval[9/2] 11-3 Mr A Tinkler108
18Feb02Fon22Sft D4y+ HcpHdl(5K)4/1027L, Hurricane Pete[14/1] 10-13 Mr A Tinkler108
26Jan02Chl17Hy D5y+ HcpHdl(9K)PU/1490+L, Polar Red[14/1] 11-6 M A Fitzgerald

CELTIC JUSTICE......60+20+100=180.....CEB=+16....11.3/11.10/11.5=-24=180+16-24=172
09Mar02Chp16GS C4y+ HcpHdl(6K)5/912L, Firestone[12/1] 11-3 S Stronge106 96 99
14Jan02Plu21Sft E5-7y Hdl(2K)9/1154L, Young Ottoman[11/2] 11-10 N Williamson54 77
21Dec01Asc20Gd B4y+ Hdl(10K)6/823L, Beethoven[9/1] 11-5 N Williamson

ROCKY ISLAND......50+20+20=90.......DFG=-16....11.3/11.3/10.11=+8=90-16+8=82
06Mar02Ban20Sft D4y+ HcpHdl(5K)3/9L, Java Sea[6/1] 11-3 N Fehily89 71 99
21Feb02Hun20Sft F5y+ HcpHdl(2K)2/205L, Hidden Bounty[20/1] 11-3 N Fehily84 100
02Feb02Utt16Hy G4y+ SellHdl(2K)1/12nk, Ardrich[3/1J] 10-11 A Garrity

SURE FURTURE......30+30+20=80.......FEF=-24.....10.9/10.6/11.9 =-8=80-24-8=48
07Mar02Wcn22Gd F4y+ HcpHdl(3K)2/175L, Bak To Bill[2/1F] 10-9 S Stronge80 89 89
01Mar02Nby21Sft E4y+ HcpCondHdl(3K)1/166L, Hidden Bounty[25/1] 10-6 F Houston80 52
22Jan02Fon22Sft F4y+ HcpCondHdl(2K)7/1325L, Keltic Heritage[14/1] 11-9 R Forristal

AUDIOSTREETDOTCOM..30+50+50=130...DDD=+24..10.7/10.1/10.5 =-24=130+24-24=130
09Mar02War21GS D4y+ HcpHdl(3K)4/95L, Oddlydodd[7/1] 10-7 hF Keniry86 90 88
18Feb02Fon22Sft D4y+ HcpHdl(5K)6/1033L, Hurricane Pete[10/1] 10-1 hF Keniry89 59 70
04Feb02Fon18Hy D5y+ HcpHdl(5K)3/1019L, Idiome[7/1] 10-5 hF Keniry

DALCASSIAN BUCK.....40+30+40=110....DED=+16..11.2/11.3/10.7 =+8=110+16+8=134
06Feb02Lud24GS D5y+ Ch(4K)PU/1438L, Waterberg[12/1] 11-2 R Thornton­ ­
16Jan02Hun24GS E5y+ Ch(3K)4/1153L, Copper Coin[20/1] 11-3 R Thornton84 75
21Dec01Utt21Sft D5y+ Ch(4K)F/637L, Wain Mountain[11/1] 10-7 Mr D Flavin

SORELY MISSED.....50+70+20=140......DDF=+8....10.12/10.0/10.4 =0=140+8=148
12Jan02War16Sft D5y+ HcpHdl(5K)3/914L, Brooklyn's Gold[9/4J] 10-12 X Aizpuru80 73 76
08Dec01San16Sft D4y+ HcpHdl(7K)3/89L, Idaho D'Ox[5/1] 10-0 X Aizpuru79 68 82
22Nov01War19Gd F4y+ HcpHdl(2K)1/151L, Jalb[10/1] 10-4 X Aizpuru

POLISH PADDY.......20+20+20=60......FFE=-16.....10.5/10.2/10.12 =+24=60-16+24=68
08Mar02Her26Gd F4y+ HcpHdl(2K)6/1633L, Rio Tinto[11/1] 10-5 S Curran81 31 58
29Jan02Tau19Sft F4y+ HcpHdl(2K)10/1626L, Tosawi[14/1] 10-2 S Curran86 46 60
22Jan02Fon18Sft E4y Hdl(2K)7/1250L, Non So[33/1] 10-12 S Curran

4:55 8 run
Newbury Racecourse Golf Centre 'Hands & Heels' Conditional Jockeys' Novices' Handicap Hurdle (Class E) (4yo+,0-110)
Winner £3,342.50
1 1P45 Skye Blue 21 N J Henderson 5 12-0 E Cooper(3) 104 112
2 1695 Celtic Justice 13 R J Hodges 7 12-0 Mr L Tibbatts(5) 104 96
3 9123 Rocky Island 16 J Mackie 5 11-1 C R Weaver 91 113
4 5712 Sure Future 15 R M Stronge 6 10-10 F Houston(3) 86 107
5 2364 Audiostreetdotcom 13 G B Balding 5 10-8h S Elliott(5) 84 115
6 F4P Dalcassian Buck 44 K C Bailey 8 10-5 C Honour 81-
7 6133 Sorely Missed 69 R Dickin 7 10-4 M Pearson(5) 80 100
8 8706 Polish Paddy 14 J W Mullins 4 10-0 D Allen(5) 78 95

Hope this comes out right.

Cheer's Kis

if you put a nought on the end make sure you do the same when subtracting or adding for class/weight previous last 3 e.g if 9 runners then 90 will be the figures you will work with.
it is just the same as mine but i do not add a nought in the first place.
max.

just seen that last post,so thats what you get up to all afternoon is it?
i will dig out my notes and get back to you.

just been rooting around the dustbin looking for notes but can not find them,wish i was more organised.
anyway i think i know where you are going wrong.
when you compare the horses last 3 weights i think you have left them as originally printed,you can see its a conditional jockeys race and most of them are claiming weight you can see it bracketed next to their names either 3 or 5lb,when you look at any race where the jockey is claiming you must take the claim off the weight shown so celtic justice would be calculated at 11 stone 9 ibs.

i made celtic justice 188
sure quest 72
audio 162
dalcassion 150
sure future 172
polish paddy 66

with regard to sure quest i think you took 8 points off for its 2nd last run when you should have left it because it was the same class as todays race.

hope that clears it up,if not get back to me.
max.

once again the jumps jinx strikes,no more n/h for me.

Max

A couple of points

the 2.55 worked out very well with your shortlist - does higher class get better results ?
it highlighted the fact that the favourite was no sure thing in the 4.55
plus all the horses in the 4.55 had a poor win to run ratio compared to the 2.55 and would all fail if we adopted say a 20% cut off (although I stand to be corrected)