With ref to 80/20 stats I dont recall Max actually mentioning the sire stats.I know you are starting with the 80/20 filter to cut the field down but what are you checking next.I have not been using the numerical figures to work out the form as Max suggested,just my own form interpretation . if we take todays race at Wolves Pips Song was nowhere in the reckoning but won.I guess we have to take the laid out horse as an undetectable inconvenience.
F1

Cabbie

are you using the 80/20 lists for trainer/jockey/sire from stephen mainwaring?

Cheer's Kis

I personally did not see the post that Max put up regarding the 80/20 rule.
I know we apply it but is it THE most important filter. Max kept referencing the filter on the PRW thread which was the t/j at course etc filter but there was never a mention of the 80/20 rule on there. Has anyone got any results from just the t/j filter excluding the 80/20. I ask this because on Sat I had Compton dynamo as top rated not Madame Maxine but I had excluded the 80/20.
If we check every race with the 80/20 then we should have 80% of the winners somewhere in the remaining selections.(in theory I think)
IF the winner is not in the remaining horses then this part of the process is breaking down.If this failure % is significant then I suggest that is why Max suggested doing it last as the winner should be identified through the tj stats/form. A lot of the selections that we have made have been singles whereas Max said the vast mjority of his bets were dutched.
I acknowledge Cabbies comments on How long it takes and Max must have a quicker way (perhaps 80/20 first) but are there any other ways we have not really noticed yet.Max did state it took him upto 6 hours sometimes to do the ratings.
On the PRW thread Max also states that he takes more than just the current or last season into account for stats.I know he has stated on this thread that he uses the current but has anyone tried using the past 3 - 5 seasons figures.
We must all take into account Maxs experience on the form side of things (for which we have seen deviations off the 10% stat for selections) but if we can methodically break this down we can get consistant winners.
To obtain Maxs high strike rate or somewhere close I think we first need to find the primary filter that gives us the winner included in the remaining selections.Once that is consistant we can then look at the different ways of applying the rest of the filters etc to narrow it down to 2 or 3 for dutching.
Comments welcome cos my fingers are knackered now
F1

F1NUT/KIS
F1NUT you are right max didnt say 80/20 sires but because we was all busy when max was on the forum,we didn,t look at max selections properly,also KIS and MYSELF did query with max on some ofhis selections they did not come up with the formula max set,in fact on one of his bets i pointed out that one of his filters was only 079 not 10% he said what is 079 to 10% its nothing if you look back in the forum you will find that message, so i started looking into the 80/20 on sires/train/jock/ and the next day i had the horses max put up he then left the forum, i have not checked he,s other selections previously so i might have been lucky.

KIS yes i use stephen manwairing 80/20 the reason is they are in A/B/C order and it is easier to read, when stephen gets his racecards on the internet i will give them a try he thinks they may be up and running in MAY on his racecards he will put all the 80/20 on train/jock/sires/ also it will be easier to check all the filters of maxs,the cards are ready to go but he is waiting to see what saville is going to do
i think max used the vfb in some form i have all of vfb books and at the moment im looking for a clue,i think if we persevere it will come,i have just read the ROUSHAYD SYSTEM BY VDW but i dont think max used this there is not enough bets, max was putting 2/4 bets a day,i think he used part of it,ie drop in class with improving speed fig, the full ROUSHAYD is drop in class with improving speed fig,plus never been dropped in class before if you want any more details of this system, i will give you examples the book is called THE KEY BY JOHN BINGAM AS I SAY i think max did use something like this plus 80/20 i know as well as you KIS that max did not stick to his filters

be lucky cabbie

F1NUT
i agree with you max must have looked at something first before he applied the filters, there was some talk of SWISH AND MAX getting together,and i think SWISH uses a drop in class obviously this is not all that SWISH uses but we can start of first looking into the 1st 4 in the f/c betting for non handcs and the 1st 5 in the f/c betting in handcs also a drop in class,it has been said that 85% of horses win when dropped in class this could be a start,if you have any other ideas lets hear about them,also i suggest you pay a visit to stephens www.site, he has put up some interesting stats on the 80/20

be lucky cabbie

Cabbie
Agree with the first few in betting.What about no odds greater than runners in race.Maxs betting did seem to hinge on stats and I think it was about 70% S/R for odds < no of runners.I disagreed with class drop earlier in the thread unless it was a very significant drop but I will keep an open mind as I am now sure Max did not give us the totally true story on his selection process.Cant blame him really and I appreciate the time he put in o the board.He also said he specialised in sprints.Speed is a major consideration in this case. I cannot for the life of me find any statistical or form reason why Pips Song won today but it was tipped as a course gamble on another board.
stick at it
F1

F1NUT
your idea of the odds i can go along with that, im in agreement with you about max not given us the full works, i have said this on one of my messages,
as for drop in class the 2 races i put up to-day i would have had both the winners in the 2.00 kelso race worth 41 shuildante last race was 53 and primitive way 52 both c/dand shul was nly carrying 2lb more than last race
in the 3.05 the top 2 in class drop waskhan kicker and mytimie race was a 30 k/k last was 88 and mytimie was 85 k/k dist win and mytimie c/d khan is only carrying 4lb more than when he won 2 races ago this looks interesting

be lucky cabbie

Cabbie
did KK and shuildante pass the filters and the 80/20.
F1

Hi all - been on me hols - good to see new ones involved !!

max gave us his system(90% of it anyway- remember he had to find a bet or he did not eat) only thing is it takes a good 5 hours to work through it.
If we also have work/family were stuffed(Eh Kis?) - I cannot devote this amount of time.
I guess if it's your full time role then no issue ??

for me as I said Max has given us his workings - I am currently working on a program to whistle through the racecards using a his methods(yeh I am a sad techie in real life)maybe when I have finished we will have sussed the remaining 10%.

remember - we all have the dream of max's job

take it easy
spacedout

F1NUT
RE SHULDANTO

F1NUT
RE SHULDANTE passed max filters on train/jock
they read train/form ok/class19,/crs30,/ dist14,/r,t 15,/ jock 13.
jock was form ok,/class 20,/crs 33,/ dist 18,/ r,t 40, train 13, also PRIMITIVE WAY PAST ALL THE FILTERS there totting up fig was PRIMITIVE WAY 193 TOP AND 2ND WAS SHULDANTE WITH 94

IN THE 3.05 KHAN KICKER PASSED ALL FILTERS BARRING JOCK WHICH WAS 6% MYTIMIE AND INDIAN VENTUER ALSO PASSED ALL FILTERS

REGARDS FOR THE 80/20 WE HAVE NEVER HAD THE 80/20 FOR THE JUMPS

SINCE MY LAST MESSAGE I HAVE HAD FURTHER THOUGHTS ON MAX MESSAGES HE SAID THAT HE ONLY LOOKED AT TRAINERS WITH THE 10% THIS IS FROM THE LIST OF TOP TRAINERS IN THE R/P,THIS IS WHAT I THINK TO MAKE US DO THE FILTERING QUICKER.

i have read a book by john bingam it is called back methodology not kidology and i think this tys up with max bets the 1st 4 in the betting f/c in the racing post for none hcps and 1st 5 in hcps if we look at the train list from the r/p then look at the betting f/c we only look at the train/jock that come under the f/c betting hows that sound,i will put up the horses that pass the filters and also pass john bingams filters and see how they go we can only try,i cant give you the formula for john bingam because he has all rights reserved

be lucky cabbie

SPACEDOUT
glad you have not left us, hope you had a good holiday.
if some of us keep probing im sure between us we will eventually get the full works on max,s sytem,if you crack the whizzing through the race card,will we be able to use it, like you i have a family and have to go to work.

be lucky cabbie

I have been sorting the races using the t % @ course first not the 80/20.This is why I was concerned yesterday over Pips Song winning as Hiat had such a bad record not only at course but in other areas as well.
Can you give me an ISBN no for the book.
cheers
F1

Forgot to say I made a list for the jumps off the stats page on the RP.If we can post up selections that pass course filter as early as poss then it gives us more of a chance to check form etc.Will post as early as I can but am self employed and dont know when I am in or out from day to day.
F1

F1NUT
RE BOOKS there are no isb numbers they are called BE A WINNER BACK METHODOLOGY NOT KIDOLOGY AND THE OTHER BOOK IS CALLED THE KEY the key to ROUSHAYD and the 3 most consistent horses both are written by JOHN BINGAM AND YOU GET THEM FROM BROWZERS, if you get any trouble getting them, i will get them for you, we have a browzers in london and i can pop in there anytime, these books are for helping to solve the vdw method i also have other books bt tony peach also solving the vdw method, hope this is some help to you.browzers are on the internet.

be lucky cabbie

Just a passing thought which maybe controversial.;Max gave many parameters to examine to come to a conclusion/selection(S)in any race.My thoughts are that perhaps he did not go through them all for every race.For example in the 2.45 Kemp won by Boanerges with Sunley Sense second.If you went through Max`s system and he suggested at Kempton that draw in sprints with stalls in straight course that high draw was ultra important.If you used that as a filter first you were left with 6 horses to look at.After looking at trainer stats as in winners placed horses in last 14 days you were left with 2 by also applying the sire stats.The 2 were Boarneges and Sunley Sense both 16/1 shots.Now to be honest i did not have a penny on the race as I didn`t have time to go through rest of filters,but i wonder if Max simply didn`t bother too much where he came up with selections without applying all the filters.It may of course just be coincidence but may be worth noting.

Re-My last post I know that Max did not stipulate using sire statistic as filter.

yes - no problem at all, and was always my intention.

spacedout

I think Max is really E.Chorlton and it's all a wind up.

Are you serious ??
and

who is E.Chorlton, is he like a C.***** (ie a valid tipster)??

spacedout
I hope I'm just being dumb - and you have wound me up!!