busy writting up next "lesson" allthough after last two days at cheltenham feel a bit of a fraud giving advice to anyone.
max.

Ok Q,

Calm down, relax, have a cuppa. Tell Mrs Q you`re sorry for snapping at her lately. Uncle Max has`nt forgotten you.

XXX

with the start of the flat season next week i thought it would be a good idea to look at the top 10 draw bias.in my opinion this is the single most important factor in finding the winner on the flat.
in reverse order of significance they are-
10 CATTERICK high draw on soft ground,especially on the round course but low if soft at 5f and low at all other distances on fast ground.
9 NEWCASTLE low in straight races but not on fast ground.
8 WINDSOR high in sprints good/faster but a major drawback on soft.
7 THIRSK high have a definate advantage in sprints on faster ground but low on soft at distances of 6f/7f/1m.
6 KEMPTON in big field sprints on soft ground high (top half dozen stalls only)also when stalls stand side and stretched across the track.
5 FOLKESTONE look for front runners drawn very high at up to 1m 12+ runners.
4 RIPON high have big advantage in big field sprints(top half dozen only)do not back anything drawn in the centre.
3 SANDOWN at 5f on ground with some cut consider only the top 5 stalls.the softer the ground the bigger the advantage to high runners.
2 HAMILTON high drawn runners have a hugh advantage up to 1m on soft ground.
1 BEVERLEY on good/faster ground consider only those drawn very high(top 3/4 stalls)the bias switches completely on soft ground.

other courses to note include BATH low draw up to 1m/DONCASTER round course low on soft/EPSOM low draw on round course on faster ground especially front runners/MUSSELBURGH low in sprints on soft/NEWBURY high on soft/PONTEFRACT high have a big advantage on soft ground but are at a hugh disadvantage on faster ground,low drawn here have little chance on soft ground.and i have saved my personal favourite until last CHESTER where allthough a low draw is usually considered a big advantage especially on soft i think the ability to accelerate as the stalls open to be just as important,because horses are constantly turning while racing they are unable to fully accelerate until they turn for home so to be racing close to the pace is vital.another thing i like about this course is the advantage it gives to the class horses who are carrying more weight,as i have already said because they are not going full pelt the class horse(most weight) is not put under any pressure and any recent penalty or weight rise can be negated and they can often go in again.
max.

MAX

Thank's for lesson 3, i look forward to lesson 4.

cheer's Kis

ps sorry to sound thick, but just want to clear this up, when you mention high/low draw, i take it to mean the following:-
low being 1 2 3 etc
high being 16 17 18 etc

yes mate you are correct.the draw bias is obviously at its strongest with the bigger the field.the top 3 courses i would suggest you only give consideration to the best 3/4 stalls,beverley is a great example of this where horses drawn highest have a great advantage even when their form indicates otherwise.
max.

Thanks MAX

Thanks Max also.Education is a wonderful thing.

Max

thats very interesting and useful. Do you have similar views on the a.w tracks. Also be interesting to see what the racing post come up with their proposed new feature on the draw

To the Professional;Try 5furlongstogo.co.uk for aw info/draw info.You may find what you want in the kickback section.Hope this is useful.

i will post up a/w draw stats if you do not find what you are looking for.

Ibrox

thanks a lot for that

MAX:
Thankyou for posting advice on track draw bias. I read in yesterdays Racing Post (page 17) that it is introducing A NEW WEAPON FOR THE PUNTER to be called TOPDRAW (how interesting.)
B-SELECTIVE.

Dear Max,
Thank you for your excellent draw info, without looking through my own records, I think, in general, I agree. I would like to add a couple of things, if I may. (I am sure you know this but...)
Sometimes it depend where the stalls are, the famous SANDOWN 5f ( where I once picked first 3 home just on top 3 drawn, 33-1, 20, 1 and 14-1 (I think). Tricast paid £5600. I was at York races that day and couldn't get a tricast on so I had to do the Tote Trio instead. When the race result came up on the screen I told all the lads I was with (about 20) that all the drinks were on me all night. DO YOU KNOW WHAT THE TOTE TRIO DIVIDEND WAS? (It should average 1 6th cos its a perm in any order.) No not 1000-1, not even 500-1 ,it was extremely low, 60-1 .
I WAS ABSOLUTELY GUTTED! I never did a tote trio bet ever again.
Anyway, i have digressed. I was going to say the Sandown draw which isn't as strong now anyway dissappears if the stalls are moved to opposite side of the track.
Also all draw bias is far stronger in hcps than non-hcps,
Yours
Swish

that really is a story to make you weep,i bet it still hurts even now.you are completely right of course and big mac for one is always banging on about the decreased divivded in t/c when the draw plays a big part in the result,its not right i know but it doesn't stop us playing though?
max.

privalleged minority

afternoon everyone.to continue where i left off i would like to put forward an old idea that has stood me in good stead in the time i have been using it.
some of you will no doubt be familiar with the 80/20 rule but for those who have not then here goes.the 80/20 rule can be found in all aspects of life and basically states that 80% of results are achieved by 20% of contributors.this applys to horse racing also where last flat season over 500 trainers contested over 3000 races resulting in 20% of these trainers winning 80% of the races,leaving another 400 trainers to fight out the remaining 20% of races.
the pattern continues for the jockeys with 20% of them (top 50)winning the 80% of races and a further 200 winning the other 20%.in fact a 150 of these jockeys did not win a single race between them.
it makes sense then when selecting possible future bets to make sure the trainer/jockey is on the 20% list and not scratching around with the unfavourable majority.

The above is part of the posting from Max the other part of the posting has been removed as it messed up the board length.
It was messing the board up because the list of Trainers and Jockeys were copied and pasted directly unto this board from another site.


Gummy

GUMMY,

Are you saying that you have deleted a posting from MAX.

MAX
if the above is correct, was it the next lesson or just some of your thoughts, only we would hate to of missed it, if it was.

Cheer's Kis

re last post
i resent the last remark gummy,the message posted by myself was not copied and pasted from stephens site but was sent to me by a friend quite a while ago from surewin.
i can understand stephen being upset if someone had used an original idea of his but lets get one thing straight the list i posted up was not someones opinion but an irrefutable fact,of which no one person can claim as their own.i can not for one minute undersatnd the annoyance of anyone because another person has used a statistic that is there for all to see.
if i said for example that there were 250 people living in my street and then another person counted and said the same thing does the original person then claim sole ownership of this fact,no of course not.
i am aware of the article on stephens site posted last october but he is surely not suggesting he was the first to be aware of the 80/20 rule in question is he?.
i know of a number of gamblers who werte using this principle long before his article or site appeared.
max.

part of an earlier post was deleted by gummy after complaints from a third party.
i will have to wait and see if the post will be allowed back in its original form,if not then i will e-mail you and any one else who wants it.
it would be a pity though to be censored in this way,maybe the complainant works for one of the big three?
max.

p.s as an afterthought gummy i would just like to say in my defence that i do not have the remotest idea how to "copy and paste" from another site.it takes me all of my time to send an e-mail.
i am afraid i am one of the old school and prefer pen and paper and until a couple of months ago had not touched a computor in twenty years,when i had a zx-81 for christmas.

[This message was edited by max on March 17, 2002 at 03:59 PM.]

I have no objections to anyone copying the free stuff from my site. But it is curteous to ask permission first.

Sure, anyone with a PC and data and a bit of time can compile a list of trainers and jockeys. But that is the whole point - time.

I spent hours researching that article to ensure it was informative and accurate, my PC's whizzed around draining resources from the national grid, my web editor spent some time checking the data and correcting my spelling.

A lot of time and resources was spent creating it. Is it fair that someone can just copy and paste it in a few milliseconds without first asking "please may I"