saint par-had a look at this one and is the clear form choice 17% above the rest,however s.stronge appears to be the weak link here his stats are not at all good-last season he failed to win a single d class hurdle race in 21 attempts,his nov hurdle record is not much better either 6%.the posts forcast of 4/9 gives us no dutching opportunity and allthough on all known form looking beyond saint par for a winner is unlikely i would not be interested in getting involved.

this is a good example of form and filter contradicting each other,i am obviuosly bias as to the filters effectiveness but it will be interesting to see which way it goes.
for the record the nearest market rival sonny jim comes out worst of all in my points value list which just adds to the confusion.

you would think a little 5 runner race like this with a strong fav would be straight forward but with all the conflicting information it makes quite a puzzle.

trading trouble-all stats and form positive and its a GO GO GO on my way down now to put my 50p on and see if i can get the 1/5.

good luck,max.

[This message was edited by max on March 23, 2002 at 10:00 AM.]

as a bit of fun my 3 against the field in most fancied order are-dayglow dancer,nimello,faithful warrior.

at newbury COLOURFUL LIFE is owned by the sponsors uk hygiene and is worth a second look.
max.

this one does NOT pass filter.

fontwell 2.45
going to see if a bet3 highest horses
cresswell native 290 past maxs filters
golden rose 270 not past filters failed on class
jans dream 155 not pass filters
cresswell train form 42 runs 10 won 9 placed
won 1 out of 3 here=33%
won 1 out 3 dist =33%
won 2 out 9 going =22%
jock rode him 3 times without a win
jock %wins to rides for trainer=29%
the horse has won 3 times at 15 attempts =20%
the horse is coming back to form
this bit is hard to explain but here goes
is the trainer going to go for this race the horse is ready for a win so i check the horses engagements this is a good exercise for the coming flat season its a bit late for the n/h because there trying to win some corn money before the end of season
but he has no future eng good sign
then comes the patterns that i use very well
go to r/p click on the horse for all its runs this is where the r/p is on its own look for a pattern especialy when it wins he,s 1st win dont matter how far back that is
before the win unless its a win 1st time of running you will see that the horse is either improving or not by looking at speed fig and p/m fig we are not interseted in the horse untill it wins from then on you will see a pattern it will go something like this
horse has already run we have the dist/going/type of track/speed/form fig it dont matter what speed or form fig you use they are all about the same.
we see if the horse is coming back to form,we look at the races hes form is coming back we are now alert we are looking now is it running in the same type of race when it won or is the race differant, if differant he is not going for the win this horse will go for the win in the next 2/3 races when you spot it you have a bet this is the way i bet
so is cresswll trainer going for the win
it blundered and unseated the rider last race was he having a go it was in a 21fur class a @£19k today its a £3k @ 20 fur a drop in class today was there a build up for the race yes its imp yes its the right dist yes its the right going yes the trainer wants to win with it yes its a bet win or lose you have done the homework it dont matter if you win or lose you have sussed out the trainer to which i think where the human facture comes in and that is how you should use maxs filters

very good work,i will get back to you in about a week when i have digested all of that.
seriously though it looks as if you have the hang of everything and as far as betting for a living is concerned you should have no problems and whatever happens its easier than riding them.
good luck but i doubt you will need it,max.

Hi Max/All
Just like to say thanks for all past/continuing information their's so much i have to try and get my head around that it's time to go into read/study mode the penny's in the slot but may take some time to drop.

Thanks again was

Max - Thank you for your reply. Regards. JIF

This is my first post so I will start by thanking the contributors for such a great thread. Considering the general crap that is being touted on most boards at this time I find it a great relief to find an intellectual and productive thread.
Max
A question regarding your betting habits.How many races do you rate and back in each day.I noted you said you liked sprints but if there are several at the meeting how do you choose which one is the best option to bet in.Do you avoid betting odds on if you prefer to dutch bets rather than select only 1 horse in a race or does it depend on how many pass the filters.
KIS
Are you anywhere near Fenton (Stokie residence)
Cheers
F1

f1nut

Hey up Mucka
Just got back in form watching the potters.
The answer to your question is yes Trent-Vale.
Welcome aboard mate, your right about this board, it as got to be the best thing since slice bread when it comes to helping each other over racing matters. What i've learnt since i've been a member you could'nt buy anywhere at any price.

Cheer's Kis

go over to the vdw thread and look at the new topic i started,makes interesting reading.

what you doing watching the footie when theres racing on?

speak to you later,max.

ps.f1 get back to you tonight

pps kis did you notice a.p got turned over on 2 pipe odds on shots at bangor,pipe failed filter on course 2/22 last 2 seasons.

MAX

I'll be goin over to the VDW thread as soon as i've posted this.
Went to the footie because i had to get out and clear my head as it was about to explode and glad i did, although the match was shite, so was my results, all those 33/1 shot's coming in, just thank god i didn't bet.
Reference the pipe/mccoy statement, just shows how strong your filters are, would anyone not knowing of the filters back against that pairing.

Cheer's Kis

ps,
I too would be interested in the answer to f1nut's question. As i dont know where to start looking, although i now THINK i can work your methods.

MAX

If you are still looking in, is there anything of interest to have a look at tonight, at wolverhampton. Dont want you to do the workings for us, just tell us which if any race would be worth looking at. Then we can work it out for ourself's.

Cheer's Kis

if i was having a bet tonight the 9.00 looks very good.have not ran filter but i would be surprised if the winner did not come from either feast of romance or garth pool.the first named in particular interests me as the winner.
max.

well that worked out great for you your top two rated coming in 1st and 2nd and the other one a non runner.
well done.
max.

in answer to your earlier question.i usually start off by looking at the strongest favourites on the card and try to find fault with it i.e filter fail this then leads me to look at the other runners in the race,with a good % of the book taken by the favourite if i can discount it then a good dutching opportunity is probable.
when the flat has settled down and the ground a little more forgiving then i will go through the entire card or even days racing(which can take 6 hours in the summer)assessing each race,i will then group together any potential qualifiers in each race and make a list which in my opinion offer the best chance of winning,this way i can rate my chances of reaching target for the day/week.
i have no hard and fast rule as to which race types i use allthough h/c are traditionally believed to be harder they also offer the best chance of maybe backing 3/4 in a race and still making a decent profit.
in short i will go wherever i believe there is money to be made.
hope that answers your question if not then get back to me.
max.

Hi Max,Gents

This may be a well worn saying, but it fits.

"Give a man a fish and you feed him for a day.

TEACH a man to fish and he can feed himself for
a lifetime".

Thanks again.
Regards Del

Max
thanks for that.If this shows a good rate of finding false favorites then it must open an opportunity for laying the favorite as well as backing the potential winners. I have tried so many times to get into form study but there were so many variables and the time taken was so long it was always impractical. By using this method in selected races I reckon a reasonable income could be made.
KIS
ey up duck, ow at
Glad Im not the only one around here looking to make a few bob on the nags.
A good informative book on dutching is by W J Davies called "the complete professional horse racing system". in it he gives formulas for dutching upto 6 horses in a race although the brief methods of horse selection are not up to much.
F1

look at the thread i told kis about at tea time gives a good example of what you are saying.

delboy-i dont want any fish-i dont eat anything that once had eyes.lol

re cresswell native post
i can see your way of thinking regerding future engagements however you must also be aware that trainers commonly enter up horses to run the next day or within a few days of previous runs,there was a horse that won at wolverhampton tonight red fred i think it was called who ran yesterday and went on to win tonight.one of the most successful systems doing the rounds at the moment concerns horses running again within a few days allthough it seems they must have ran placed previously to be considered.
trainers also often run a horse just to bring it to peak a day or to before effectively laying it out to win a future race within the next few days.also consider the horses that have won as expected and the trainer has had the foresight to enter it for another race before it has even won the race it is contesting today enabling it to run and win again before being properly assessed and runnnig with a penalty which more often than not turns out to be to lenient.d.nicholls for one pulls this off to great effect in the summer.
i suppose this is where some knowledge of the trainers habits comes in handy.
max.

MAX

Can you please explain as to how you get 2/22 for M C PIPE at Bangor, as i get the folowing:-

.....................overall...........hurdles.........chases
2000 Bang.......3-15=20%......1-10=10%.....2-4=50%
2001 Bang.......1-12=8%........1-10=10%.....0-2=0%

Cheer's Kis