Of course Nessie is right... this is the VDW thread after all. Right then. From now on all selections are to be given out AFTER the race. Pre-race selections will be void. The winner will be determined by the best description of why it won from a VDW selection standpoint.

Nothing wrong with aftertiming.... A few years ago two local theives broke into the local bookmakers at around 02:30am, and lost all their money!!!!!!

Investor
well done with your selection today

Good Guess

boozer
Something very strange happened today,There were 2 horses running that came out of a decent handicap at market rasen.And guess what,they both won very strange indeed.LOL

3 came from Market R Lto
2 from good races
1 from a bum race
The 2 that came from the classy races didnt actually show anything in those races but
You have to ask why they were placed there in the first place,
nothing strange investor

This message has been edited. Last edited by: boozer,

Investor
I can see you are interested in prize money as the indicator of class so
Heres something for you to think about

Flat racing 2003
out of 261 races worth 9k or less
51 were won by horses that had run in a race Lto worth 20k or more
first 6 in betting

And
You would have made a LSP of 9 points backing em all willy nilly

This is where to fish investor

This message has been edited. Last edited by: boozer,

Boozer
Youv'e no need to tell me where to fish my friend,There's a f.....g big pond full of them all yer round

Trouble is Investor My freind, you have to back em before the race
And
You VDW stalwarts are going to miss 75% of em cos you wont back in the lower class races
So your Pond turns into a puddle

A salesman eh
That explains a lot

This message has been edited. Last edited by: boozer,

Well done Investor, though I did notice the excuses lined up just in case it didn't do the business

Have to admire your fortitude in what is plainly A VDW knocking shop I wonder what class of filly that may have attracted? Would they have consistently swa... no won't go down that road!

Wincanton 3.00 Taranai

Blackchurch Mist 230Win.

(NFP, I see we have taken the same trainer. I was tempted by your pick but prefered to take on the odds on fav in the hope of better value.)

Hi JIB,

Indeed.

Now as to why my selections may have no worth regards this particular thread, I have already stated I'm not an adept at the black art. My selections are based purely on ratings and my reading of them (with perhaps a little common thrown in - form reading?) and one set at that - not Fineform, though I'd have been 2 for 2 in the races I chose yesterday - Fineform is a long term project for me.

Whilst the trainer rating for this race is reasonable (not the best) and form at present is not inspiring, the horse (according to the ratings - and this is the wee beastie that has to do the business) is improving and both it's raw rating and overall rating are higher than the race class rating - my interpretation and should I be wrong, not a reflection upon the ratings. Plus they have a "value" price for the horse (something at the moment I don't look into too deeply, maybe I should as Cabbie was a big advocate for value and is somebody I have the utmost respect for) of 11/10 so the forecast 7/2 just has to be value - and long term on something like this you can't go wrong, well unless they all lose! Whew, that's a whole lot of ratings!

Blackchurch Mist - the trainer thingymeebob obviously holds true for this race as it does for mine. On the ratings I look at it has been "consistent" at the race class for tomorrow (same raw rating for the last 6 races, which is the same as "class" rating for tomorrow's race) and it's overall rating is higher than tomorrow's race class. BM also has a higher speed rating in a better class race than BG. The odds on fav has a very similar profile but has only held it's raw rating for 1 race after dropping prior to that (not good, but good for your horse), it's overall rating is just above race class - I think you are correct to take on the likely odds on fav. BTW the value price for BM is 10/3 the F'cast is 3/1. The other thing I would look at are trainer/jockey/horse percentages for win/place for your selection they are all dramatically better at course than overall, all be it only 3 runners thus far at course for the trainer.

This was in no way meant to sound presumptious, or even sound like they are from someone who may know what they are doing (though having read through it that's exactly what it looks like, presumptious I mean - and in the edit somebody who might know what they're doing) - just my opinion looking at the ratings I use and my interpretation of them.

On a lighter note, maybe regards the VDW knocking shop I should have asked would they consistently come first

This message has been edited. Last edited by: Nofinepix,

NFP,

Nice summing up! You get a whiff of being well placed too! The bit I think I got wrong was the value; I thought there would be more in BM and McCoyI thought was likely to get Taranai overbet.

Boozer
Not entirely true old bean,You have no idea what class of race i play in.A good recent example is,The prince in a claimer.It's the class of animal and the class it's been running against that alerts me to a prospective bet.So don't for one minute think i only play in the big races.Don't forget that vdw had the h/cap n/hcap method,Which can sometimes be a low class affair as far as the race goes,But not neccesarily where the animals involved are concerned.

wolves 150 musical day & watchmy eyes & kangrina to 20%
ps why isnt amigra in the forecast?

Struggling..Erm..

3.20 wol COUNTDOWN.

Nessie: If it's not in the forecast, it's a non-runner. If you're Dutching I'll either split one point equally or you can submit your result with the calculations, up to you.

W 3:30 Half An Hour
L 3:40 Champagne Lil

I'm not going to keep track of the mean number of runners, distance and class, as I did last time, as if the message didn't get through it was a wasted effort. I'll try to update daily to keep the excitement close to fever pitch but I'll be out of the country for a week this month and again next month, as I dont know how much computer access I'll have I hope someone'll take over during those periods.
Days: 1
Epiglotis: 0/2 -2 0%
Investor: 1/1 3.5 100%
John in Brasil: 0/1 -1 0%
Nofinepix: 1/2 2.5 50%
I dont know where they've hidden the plus signs on this new keyboard so you'll have to do without.

its above the "=" to the left of "backspace" and also on the rhs of the number pad