Turko 205C has already beaten his principal rival fairly comfortably and is a selection. However its another top class novice event so anything can pop up, and therefore not one too go in too hard on nor take too wee a price.

Refinement 145H or 1245L is a selection IN either race which lends credability that they mean business, and a bet if I get evs. (I am naturally prejudiced against jonjo shorties!)

1235S 12f Class 5:

Kylkenny has 3 consecutive positives but has been hit by the OH and has a penalty. Time to lose.

Discard.

Mad Carew has 3 good consecutive positives and is a multiple distance winner. He has had 24 sand runs but strangely enough all of them at Lingfield. However the sire stats suggest that the track should be okay. He has won above his current mark and is due a win (8 losing runs).

Stays in.

Hue should need the run.

Discard.

Dovedon Hero has two ordinary positives but hardly looks placed to win with the sire stats looking dull. Not out of it but still a:

Discard.

Come What July improved considerably lto compared to his two previous runs and may be coming to hand. Unwise to throw out.

Stays in.

Indebted scored a good positive lto but over 3f shorter. This filly is relatively unexposed, but has never atempted 12f before the sire stats arent terribly negative about the dist but its hard to consider her placed to win. A possible danger but better to:

Discard.

Barking Mad looks out of form.

Discard.

Yenaled scored a big positive lto over CD. Although he came 2nd the OH hasnt touched him, and although he'll be 9yo in a week looks dangerous at the moment. Tomorrow is the 100th race of his career... good luck!

Stays in.

Dutch: Mad Carew, Come What July, and Yenaled. At fc prices that works out at 21/20. Should get 11/8 on the exchanges.

This message has been edited. Last edited by: john in brasil,

Stuffed by the frog!

Prime Contender 1250N will win.

Its A Dream 225N has been placed to win

Just banded trash on the sand.

"You should keep in mind no names, nor numbers, nor isolated incidents, not even results, but only methods. The method is plastic. It is applicable in every situation. The result, the isolated incident, is rigid, because bound to wholly individual conditions. The method produces numerous results; a few of these will remain in our memory, and as long as they remain a few, they are usefull to illustrate and to keep alive the rules which order a thousand results."-Emanuel Lasker

2.25 - Henderson has won the 2m novice hurdle at Newbury for the last 4 years !!

I wouldn't rule him out of the 12.50 either.

tc

-

Oh sod !

Abandoned !!

This message has been edited. Last edited by: Tuppenycat,

Just for interest, since we are looking at banded trash.

lets "Play the Draw" in the 2.05 sprint - no point in looking at "form" - just blindly "Dutch" - Stalls 1 to 4 !

we could get a decent priced winner.

tc

I'd love to see the Fulham/Guest reaction to blindly Dutching the draw as a proposal on the VDW page. Good one.

At Wolves since the re-surface - Anyone who bets on a stall higher than 6 in the races up to 1 mile - wants his head looking at !!

Stall 1 - 7/1



Notice also, the stall in the 7f - stall 2 !

More banded crap tomorrow

Wrong track !

The "Draw" only works at Wolves.

tc

Erm, there is a draw bias at Southwell.

And the draw at Wolves cannot always be relied upon - ditto Chester, though, ignore either at your peril.

TC - face it, VDW folk aren't even going to be looking at Wolves.

quote:

Originally posted by epiglotis:
"You should keep in mind no names, nor numbers, nor isolated incidents, not even results, but only methods. The method is plastic. It is applicable in every situation. The result, the isolated incident, is rigid, because bound to wholly individual conditions. The method produces numerous results; a few of these will remain in our memory, and as long as they remain a few, they are usefull to illustrate and to keep alive the rules which order a thousand results."-Emanuel Lasker

Epi
From a higher source:
"And the city lieth foursquare and the length is as large as the breadth; and he measured the city with the reed, twelve thousand furlongs.
The length and the breadth and the height of it are equal."
Revelations, 24:16.

The truth remains the same, whichever angle you approach it from!

This message has been edited. Last edited by: johnd,

finepix -

Lets face, it VDW folk spend so much time going round in the same circles, - that the only thing they ever look at - is their own "Backsides". - let alone "ANY" current racing !!

Still learning the AW - so take my opinions with a "pinch of salt".

Whilst I accept that there "Is" a draw bias at Southwell, I also feel that the Track Surface there, is so very different,that it can upset "The best laid plans".

I am begining to sort some of the Wolves races , with a bit of confidence. - One of my favourite jockeys, is Egan, - when he is handed a decent draw, he produces some amazing rides !

Southwell, as I say, I find much more difficult.

tc

Johnd:
In west Africa early European adventurers were puzzled by spoked circles of sticks that they occasionally encountered. It turned out that these were laid by chimps who then sat waiting for the fire to start. As Lasker suggests, the Barney/Fulham style of fitting a candidate selection to a VDW example (look at the 3:30, isn't there a PK? etc) lacks any kindling spark. It also relies on the assumption that VDW's examples cover all possible winners, Fulham's own observation that only 16% of races are won by VDW class/form horses in itself not only proves this untrue but suggests that most of the runners in a given race will have unknown winning capacities, in short, the "ape VDW" method of the experts can again be seen to hinder rather than help the selector.

Anyone notice how well Brave inca ran today?

As there is no real racing at the moment here is a little angle to ponder on:

In VDWs first epistle which he entitles "Narrow The Field To Gain The Winning Strip" He first states that what follows is only "but one of many ways" to find winners. He then states that most winners can be found within the first 5 or 6 in the betting and equally amongst the three lowest sums of the formfigs and that combining the two can leave a subset for consideration.

So is born the Consistency Rating (CR) as demonstrated in the now infamous Prominent King/ Erin Foods Champion Hurdle at Leopardstown. As we know to our past discomfort the CR is held by the knowalls to be one of the cornerstones of VDWology and imprescriptible to its function. They seem to forget that it is introduced under the instruction that the use of formfigs is "but one of many ways".

One can from this point on take the view that VDW is a fool or a v clever individual because when he lists the three most consistent in the Erin (Beacon Light, Prominent King, and Mr Kildaire) he is actually pointing out that two of his consistent horses are set to lose and only one (as is usual) will eventually win. Interestingly enough the choice of the Erin is full of (intentional or unintentional?) irony because the chosen selection (Prominent King) is not only the worst of the 3 consistent horses having a total of 5 to the other two horses total of three each, but he is also opposing two horses that wlto!

Obviously the Erin example whilst apparently on the surface an injunction to use the CR is also full of scattered clues and hints as why not to make it a fundamental approach. The example terminates with the use of traditional 'form' as the reason for choosing PK over his two consistent rivals. And if this same terminating argument had been given before the CR explanation I am sure that few would differ from the view that 'Consistency' (and by inference the market position too) was only used as a check by VDW after he had chosen a selection as having the greatest chance of winning to see if the statistics were on his side.