Just a bit of interest in Pinchbeck 140S who is interesting from an RPR/OR angle and looking at trainer and sire stats may well have been placed to win.

Great Price!

Now theres clever !!

Not just clever tc its fecking brilliant with 3/1 and 10/1,

Very well done John

A nice surprise!

Thanks Lads!

Well done JIB.
I think next year I'll have to take a more serious interest in all this stuff. Trouble is I'm always telling meself that.
New Years resolution:- to give up putting off giving up procrastination

'to give up putting off giving up procrastination'

Imp,

When you can construct a sentence with 3 x verb + prepositions you should have no trouble picking winners!

Thanks!

well done JIB over the last few weeks

happy xmas to all of you

JIB,

You are way out of order, you should be ashamed of yourself. Posting winners up before a race - what is the VDW world coming to?

Ah, you ain't a VDW'er - long may it continue.

I've just watched the 1990 King George - I reckon Dessie will win it. Crap, it seems Mr Hill will not take my bet!

VDW is dead (if it were ever alive, doubtful), long live the king.

JIB - I just bet them invertaerate VDW'ers are crapping their pants - you upstart you.

As ever well done in your analysis and your sire stats - keep 'em coming.

Excellent stuff JIB - well done!!

Boxing Day 350W Class 4 12f

Consonant has two positive RPR/OR ratios in its last 3 runs. However it has already been brought to the boil winning lto out and clobbered by a 6lb penalty. Obviously not out of it but its cover has been blown. Not a distance winner either. Sire stats are positive for the course and whilst the distance shouldn't be bad its not likely to be his best either, something his form bears out with no wins over 10f.

The T/C and T/J stats are fine and the horse is 5/10 on the AW, but despite all these positives it doesn't have the feel of being placed to win, even if it is capable of doing so. A reluctant and potentially dangerous discard.

Eastborough recorded a positive RPR/OR percentage lto despite coming 10th of 12 at the 'wrong' dist. This horse is a case of:

Poor formfigs (080) + missionary position trainer and jockey stats = Big price

And has the look of a potential surprise especially as it is CD winner now returning to ideal conditions. Sire stats are indicative of a horse ideally placed both for dist and course.

Pass The Port has recorded two big positives last two times out and goes unpenalised for them too (I don't know why). Obviously form figs of 21 and CD mean that hes no secret but as a still unexposed 4yo he deserves to be fc fav. Certainly the sire stats support his place in the market.

As a wlto I would love to throw him out but he has to stay in.

Heathyards Pride also has two big positives but has been penalized for his efforts. Once again we have a CD horse who has come to the boil but who is still not out of it. Sire stats for course are superb and the distance ideal for the horse.

Stays in.

Bethanys Boy has 3 consecutive good positive ratios but has risen well above his last previous winning mark and looks set for a spell of losing now and even though 2nd fc fav can be ruled out.

Fiddlers Creek has had a long break so will hopefully need a pipeopener.

Ruled out.

Countrywide Luck has two good positives last two t.os. Has not won but still been clobbered with 3lbs from the OH. However his recorded RPRs still show a good positive advantage when compared to his new mark. Only a 4yo with just two sand runs behind him he is unexposed, at least on the sand. However Inchinor progeny havent a good record at Wolves and he doesn't look placed to win.

Discard.

Bazelle has a nice positive lto but over only 9f. Is a 3yo and relatively unexposed, the sire stats suggest that 12f is not ideal neither is the track. In the absence of information to the contrary I understand that it has not been placed to win.

Discard.

Wotchalike has no positives and looks out of form.

Discard.

Not a great race and probably best left alone however as its Xmas I'll dutch:

Eastborough, Pass The Port, and Heathyards Pride.

At fc prices that works out at 20/21 though on BF it should be at least 5/4.

Three selections tomorrow:

Racing Demon 105S is clearly the class animal in the race. I wont say it is nailed and bolted because in top class novice events nearly all the runners, barring accidents, will improve. With a current SR of 70% I can afford to take 4/5.

Intersky Falcon 140S is the proven class animal in the race. The lto he was clearly coming to the boil and is well overdue a win now, (this race two years ago when beating Rooster Booster). The current 4/1 looks v good value thanks to a fav who has not yet shown she has the class people are awarding her. Neither was this race in her plans before her lto.

Fuel Cell 335MR cost £100k when a yearling and if you forgive the lto run is the clear class animal in the race. Again a good fc price and I even got a bit on at 17/2!

John,
Re-Feathard Lady the trainer has brought this mare along slowly & as a consequence she is lightly raced, improving, and still relatively unexposed.
Entered in 3 graded races both sides of the water in Dec she is obviously held in some regard by her handler.
Another (rating) that is useful for a gauge on class with improving types like this John is to rate the entire field dividing win prizemoney by starts.
If nothing else it can give a different slant to a race where a horse has not yet had the opportunity to show it`s real class.

NR and

Well Done Walter!

I`ll away an have a look at your dutch in the 3.50 at Wolves John i managed to get on Back In Front at 3.0 in running entering the final bend there at Limerick pmsl.

JIB - on fire with the 3.50 Wolvs - excellent!!

Ist and 2nd!

Get in there i bet the first 2 home at 6.0 & 3.45 John. I did`nt even look at the race just followed your lead cheers m8.

VDW advised us to use ratings as a guide.
Here are the Daily Mirrors ratings for Wolverhampton today.

1.35
Foreplay top rated 28 won 7/4
Canona 2nd rated 27 2nd 4/1

2.10
Rapsgate 2nd rated 31 won 7/1
Egyptian Lord 5th rated 28 2nd 7/2

2.45
Reveur 5th rated 24 won 50/1
Porters top rated 28 2nd 8/11

3.20
Atlantic Quest 2nd rated 25 won 9/4
Mystic Man top rated 26 2nd 11/10

3.50
Heathyards Pride top rated 32 won 11/2
Pass The Port 2nd rated 31 2nd7/2

4.20
Connotation 2nd rated 27 won 5/1
Daring Affair top rated 28 2nd 9/2.

The ratings dont usually work out as well as this for normal.

Sandown had three top rated winners in Darkness Hoo La Baloo & Kicking King. Fethard Lady Afrad & Albarino were 2nd 3rd & 4th rated winners respectively.