I dont know whether to laugh or cry! 9/4 !!

48hrs...And Still No Reply...

Girocheque: "AlanB,

If that is so then how do you explain that going on a little while chronologically from the introduction of the AR. VDW states that:

" I believe it is more realistic to base class on what a horse has actually done in public not by any other means"?

As far as I can see he was worried about the AR and had to cover himself because it is impossible to reconcile that statement with wholesale application of the AR. There is then a flurry of justification of the AR/CR method using various races as examples however the fragility of which was succinctly pointed out by 'Win of Brighton' who was not replied to for over a year!"

AlanB:"The quote you have posted is surely entirely consistent with the one I posted. What is more public than a horse's runs and wins."

Girocheque:"As a horse generally wins fewer of its runs than it loses, both of which are done in public, why then should only the wins be considered?

And I will remind you it isnt myself who is being quoted here.

VDW could well have reinforced his AR directive at this point but most certainly did not, chosing to avoid all mention of the word 'win'.

The reason for the omission is probably found in the quote itself."

AlanB:"Because VDW was trying to measure ability in terms of achievement: a horse that, on average, wins £10,000 races can reasonably be regarded as a better one than one which, on average, wins £5,000 races - subject, obviously, to the caveats VDW expressed.



I suspect that, to those who don't have an adequate feel as to the range of "all the other elements", it may look as though a great deal of weight is being placed on what is just an average, with all the questionmarks that attach to averages and of which VDW was clearly aware. But in practice this is not so.



For example, in the 26 handicaps where VDW names or hints at selections in letters and articles up to and including the "Spells it all out" piece, in exactly half on my view of things there was only one class/form horse, so the AR did not figure at all. Of the remaining 13, in 7 there were two class/form horses, in 3 three, in 4 two and in 1 five. In these, from VDW's perspective, the higher/highest ability rated horse was the best horse and most likely winner, but even then he didn't always back them, because not all the other elements lined up sufficiently.



The AR, then, is an important part of the "kit" but it is not always relevant, and when it is only leads to a bet when the other parts stack up.



Indeed, having havered on the issue over the years, I am still not wholly sure that VDW always backed the class/form horse. Yes, there are strong arguments for thinking that he did - well articulated by Lee on the Gummy thread - and basically I find them convincing. But there remain questionmarks in my mind about one or two races out of the 140+ analysed - particularly perhaps those won by Kumbi and Rivage Bleu."

Girocheque:"The appearance of the AR is immediately preceded in the same letter by worries that VDW had that class was being ignored or unknown to most punters as demonstrated by the forums' correspondence about his previous missives.

'A significant factor with regard to racing that is apparently not known or ignored by the vast majority of punters is that of class.'

So a simple idea of roughly gauging class is duly trundled out for the use of those punters near the bottom of the 2nd division.

However for those punters who had already understood his previous letters and were fully aware of the importance of class it is axiomatic that the AR is/was unnecessary.' .......

Good 10 pence worth JIB.



btw -

I see that Richard Guest - has started his annual Christmas collection !!


tc

Quote from Fulham:
For example, in the 26 handicaps where VDW names or hints at selections in letters and articles up to and including the "Spells it all out" piece, in exactly half on my view of things there was only one class/form horse, so the AR did not figure at all. Of the remaining 13, in 7 there were two class/form horses, in 3 three, in 4 two and in 1 five. In these, from VDW's perspective, the higher/highest ability rated horse was the best horse and most likely winner, but even then he didn't always back them, because not all the other elements lined up sufficiently.

3 quotes from VDW

It remains positive that the class horse, given certain other factors, usually wins.

I illustrated how class fitted into my calculations and showed a way to find virtual racing certainties!

It is my view that class and form are the dominant factors, and restate that the 'class horse' seldom fails to capture the prize when the prize is big enough.



It should be clear from the above that there can only be one class/form horse in any race, any other conclusion, apart from being a fudge to make one's own view fit VDW's selections, flys in the face of simple logic.

Hi Johnd

Are you saying if you get the correct class/form horse in the race you will get most of the winners?

The Listener 240W has the necessary requirements.

Vingis Park 1250U has been found another race and the trainer seems to have found a sorry bunch for him to race against. Could be decent price as theyre going for the 2nd fav already.

quote:

It should be clear from the above that there can only be one class/form horse in any race,

-

Not so , and I hope that johnd will clarify !!

tc

Anyway -

ALL the pent-up frustration of 47 consecutive losers ended for Martin Pipe on Thursday when he at last returned to the winner's enclosure.



Class D Chase at Exeter !

With a GR 2 horse -

Smacks of Desperation - Doesn't it ???

This message has been edited. Last edited by: Tuppenycat,

"Ding Dong Merrily On High....."

I make that 9/13 now

Hi JIB well you can certainly walk the walk, you are the man with the Midas touch
johnd take note WINNERS(selections even) CAN BE POSTED BEFORE THE OFF
all the best
Larry
btw i'm going away on sunday for Xmas will be back 27/12 so may i take this opurtunity to wish everyone
A VERY MERRY CHRISTMAS

"Top Spotting" JIB.

Pipe seems a long way from being "Right" -
bet that McCoy wishes that he had stopped in bed !!



Does tho' point to Acambo being a horse to watch, if it can win under present circumstances.

100H Circassian is nailed and bolted

110W Natal is a selection too.

Think - I'll add in - Inglis Drever - for a - "Patent"

12.50 Lingfield RAMSGILL looks the biz to me.

Some good stuff on here recently, well done to all..except JohnD

Welcome back ec
i'm away for chrimbo but when i get back i'm hoping youll have your hurdles ratings(you usually have them by now)
JIB king of the novices but i just cant have CIRCASSIAN too many if's & buts with it & the other runners best obf luck with it m8 but i'm leaving it alone(i know i'll regret this)
all the best
Larry
btw if you see me online on sunday after about 10am i'm on the wifes laptop & probably surfing my way to a divorce
MERRY CHRISTMAS ONE & ALL(including JD)

Oh ye of little faith...

Hard Held!

Hope you got on early, (1.93 for me )

Windsor abandoned so now 10/14 (73%SR)

I apologise oh mighty one