Anything of note in the systematic betting John?

2.75

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forgot -swish !

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forward - the brown envelope to epi then !!

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cheers

tc

??

epi -

actualy contains most of anything of value from the VDW stuff .

If you want a copy , then re-send your address via e'mail and I will put it in the post. -

as usual - Being a dissorganised bugger - I have stuck it in a "safe place" and - lost it !!!

tc

Okay, thanks.

Rab,

Systematic Betting is all about Roushayd.

Steadily rising SFs over last 3 races it is then dropped in class with the best SF (recorded and adjusted) in the race.

Not a million miles away from what I'm trying to do now only this time I have set benchmarks for two ratings (TS and RPR) not only as to their min. requirements both adjusted and unadjusted but furthermore the advantage they hold over the 2nd rated.

If I obey these criteria the horse doesnt need to be dropped in class as I can still see it as being placed to win. A drop is just icing on the cake and in most cases the trainer knows the horse is currently just too good for the opposition antway.

Thanks John

And the VDW'rs -


Still can't see beyond the first 6 Letters !!

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or count beyond 5 - on their fingers !!

NICKY HENDERSON - has won the 2m Juvenile Hurdle at Newbury for the last 4 years (4-5)


Today Henderson runs RESTLESS D'ARTAIX the 6/4 Favourite

The last Henderson winner (his 4th) last year (Afrad) was 3rd in the same Class C Juvenile Hurdle at Newbury in November that RESTLESS D'ARTAIX was 3rd in last time.

Both RESTLESS D'ARTAIX and ORIGINAL FLY have ran in French Listed Hurdles. ORIGINAL FLY Looks a chasing prospect but should be very competetive without having thesexy profile that RESTLESS D'ARTAIX has. This pair should be far too good for Brave Hiawatha 10/1 (Jim Old has never trained a Juvenile winner) and Vigna Maggio 9/1 . Desert Secrets 14/1 wont be good enough. He comes from a Class D race (Every past winner came from a higher class) and his stables Juvenile Hurdlers are only interesting in Selling juvenile races. The yard are also 1-40 at the track.

All things point to RESTLESS D'ARTAIX giving Nicky Henderson his 5th succesful win in this race if he can defy his penalty. I think he will

The "Tony Evans" stuff - reflects most of "Systematic Betting" .

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tc

If only we got half a dozen of those every month!!

Wish I had the discipline to wait for them.

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Interesting horse in the 3.30 - NITELITE - was entered at Warwick in Nov but then withdrawn.

Hales has only brought one other horse over to Newbury, and it won.



tc

Here you go , you lucky lads, all the way from the US of A:

Ihope some of it may be on topic and helpful:

""
The Special "A" Method

For lack of a better label, I've called the performance side of this angle the "A" angle. And because the trainer maneuver side of this combination angle is unusual, I've tagged it "special". Let's look are the simple, easy-to-spot rules first, and then expand on them later.

1.) The horse must have a 2RB.IMF w/i the last 60 days or so.

2.) The horse must have a LR.OMF, preferably w/i the last 30 days.

3.) The horse's LR must have been an easy conditioning race.

4.) The horse's form cycle or LR.SR (speed rating) must indicate current sharpness.

5. The horse must have been bumped up in Class or Price last start and must not be dropping in Class or Price today.

Now, let's look at each rule in order:

The horse must have a 2RB.IMF w/i the last 60 days or so.

Since we're concerning ourselves with non-drop downs today, we want some evidence that the horse enjoyed good form in the recent past. A 2RB.IMF of relatively recent date tells us that the horse was sharp -- at least on the date of that good race. For all but genuine Allowance or Stakes grade horses, I made it a policy to stick to the 60 days or so -- maybe on the outside 65 days. But for the better class horses, naturally this rule can be stretched since higher class animals are capable of holding their form for longer periods. Or I might even stretch the date rule for a cheaper horse if he has a workout angle in his chart of recent date, i.e. subsequent to his LR.

How everyone applies any of these depends largely on the degree of your own handicapping expertise -- most especially in the area of the complex, multi-faceted Form Factor. For novices, I would recommend you stick with the rules fairly rigidly until such time you can develop the single most important resource any bettor can have, i.e. sound personal judgment. Others, however, who have developed this kind of judgment over the years and are comfortable making tougher decisions could well find good reason to bend the rules. To these: More power to you.

The horse must have a LR.OMF, preferably w/i the last 30 days.

Everything I just stated above applies with equal force to this rule.

The horse's LR must have been an easy conditioning race.

For the sake of the "apprentices" among us, we must define or clarify what constitutes an "easy" race. For the sake of this particular method, an easy race must have been an out of money finish (OMF), for starters. In many cases the horse will have shown a high turn of early speed (ES) from the 1st Call to the Second (1C to 2C) or sometimes even to the Stretch Call (SC), and then from either the 2C or SC, fading back, usually losing lengths during the stretch run.

Or an easy race could be one wherein the horse really didn't show much of any kind of speed. He just ran an even race, more or less.

Or an easy race could be one wherein the horse ran a nice, smooth gaining race perhaps from the 1C or the 2C down to the wire -- but didn't finish too close up -- being beaten by 5+ lengths or so. This kind of race indicates the horse wasn't pressed very hard.

But here is what an easy race isn't: An easy race isn't one wherein the horse was battling for the lead all the way around the track, and then just ran out of steam when he reached the 1/8 pole. What you want to pay attention to is the lengths off the leader at every call in order to make this kind of judgment. For example, a horse could have been a length or even less off the leader at the first two calls, then was 2 or 3 lengths behind the leader at the SC, then lost even more ground by the time he reached wire. In such a scenario, the horse qualified on the ES angle -- an angle that is often found in the chart of A angle horses. But his manner of running in this hypothetical situation would indicate that he wasn't overtaxed.

Or a horse could have even been leading at the first two calls, then started to fade thereafter, losing ground all the way to the wire. Again, this is a form of early speed which I call the HW or Hidden Workout angle because the trainer probably instructed the jock to give his horse a stiff workout for 4 or 6f (depending on the distance) within the confines of a race.

But what all these hypothetical scenarios have in common is that the horse was not overtaxed in its LR. And this is a really important rule to understand and apply correctly if you hope to collect on some big mutuels with this method.

The horse's form cycle or LR.SR (speed rating) must indicate current sharpness.

So, not only is the horse's manner of running that LR important, but we want to see further evidence that he still retains some close resemblance to that good form in the 2RB wherein he finished in the money. We can know with a high degree of certainty that the horse is very sharp today and should run a big race whenever his LR.SR is equal to over better yet, greater than his 2RB.SR. It simply doesn't get any better than this from a current form perspective.

But a lot of qualified horses won't have this speed rating element in their chart. This doesn't necessarily mean, though, that they're not sharp and not ready to run big today. The rule of thumb I've used is that whenever a horse's LR.SR is within 10 points of his 2RB.SR, then we can be reasonably sure that he still retains good form. This is especially true whenever a horse's current form cycle indicates progressive improvement from his 4RB to his 2RB, and then earns a slightly lower SR in is LR.

Going from his 4RB, for example, a horse's SR pattern to his LR might look something like this:

73 - 75 - 82 - 78

Here we see the "spike" in his 2RB -- the race with his IMF. Here he earned an 82, and then came back to run a 78 in his LR. Assuming that this LR was an easy one, we can be sure that it contributed positively to the horses's current condition. This form cycle pattern is commonly found with these A angle horses.

Another form cycle pattern that is sometimes found with the A angle involves regression instead of progression, which can make this form cycle a difficult one to evaluate properly. (Hard core Sheeters generally hate this pattern.)

Starting from the 3RB, such a SR pattern would look something like this:

88 - 84 - 77

Sometimes these kinds of horses will even make good when they come back with SRs more than 10 points below their 2RB.SR. This is truly an enigmatic pattern – one I've never truly understood. However, there are times when the presence of certain other form angles transforms what appears to be a negative angle into a positive one. For example, whenever a horse also has a 3RB.IMF, this for some reason unbeknownst to me adds a lot of strength to the angle.

Another that puts a positive spin to this pattern is when a horse is coming back to race within 8 days of his LR.

Another is when a horse has a certain workout pattern in his chart, etc.

All I can recommend to the less experienced among us is that you study this pattern for yourself., and when in doubt, pass the race.

The horse must have been bumped up in Class or Price last start and must not be dropping in Class or Price today

In most cases, the horse will have been bumped up in Class his last start. The exception to this rule is when we're dealing with bottom-rung claimers. For example, many times these bottom class claimers rarely leave their class level. All the trainer will do is maneuver such an animal in price, as we're going to see in the example race I found.

In summary, what makes this method such a powerful price-getter is that the horse was bumped up last start and is not dropping today. And what can often enhance it's longshot potential is when the horse is bumped up again today. Why would a trainer do this? In a word: Confidence! The trainer believes his horse is sharp, and will be able to withstand a bump up. If he's a betting trainer, he's going to get some bang for his wagering dollars. But if he isn't, then he's going to try to garner a share of a larger purse with his kind of move.

This maneuver coupled with the fact that the horse ran out in his LR (and sometimes badly beaten) seem to throw the crowd for a loop. Stated differently: The public misinterprets the trainer maneuver and the poor appearing finish. These two elements often combine to produce great prices on the winners.

Precisely, additional parameters but if longshots keep you afloat why not incorporate an odds limit. Personally, I like to see a horse going off at 8/1 or greater who had single digit odds last time out. Or the reverse, a ML of single digit odds but was 8/1 or greater last time out. This will usually result in a higher payoff while giving the horse a chance to improve in form. I also like to create my own morning line by accessing 55% factor for a win 20% factor for a place and 15% factor for a show. so let's say the following occurs

HORSES RECORD (Lifetime/distance/surface type) but in this case we will use Lifetime. Also, percentages refer to percent of race purse amount for each finish.

example: Horse A lifetime 40 total races 5 wins 10 places 3 shows

( 5X55% + 10X20% + 3X15%) / 40 X 100%

(2.75 + 2.00 +.45) / 40

5.2 / 40 = .13 OR 13% chance of winning the race

Now simple math dictates that Horse A should also be in the money 45% of the time 18 (total WPS) / 40 =.45

Now you can keep the value of 13% at face value in comparison to the other horse's value or you can total the number for each horse in the race and then divide the total of the individual horse's value by the total. This would give you a percentage value as to the chances of the horse being in the money as compared to the entire field.

HORSES = VALUE

A=13% B=10% C=6% D=21% E=25% F=8% G=12% TOTAL = 95%

ODDS WOULD BE HORSE'S PERCENTAGE DIVIDED BY TOTAL PERCENTAGE

HORSE A 13 / 95 = 7

A=7/1 B=10/1 C=16/1 D=9/2 E=4/1 F=12/1 G=8/1 TOTAL = 61.5
"""

Maybe you've all read it a thousand times before, but I think it's worth a comparison.

Let us know what bits you reject.

That was all copied and pasted from a clever dude.

Anyone know how to use the method for UK racing?

Maybe I don't read the figures correctly, but I find " improving Topspeed" a rarity.

What really fks me is the RP website; when I look at horses form ( click on name), the list of numbers from bottom to top ( oldest to latest) seems at odds with the figures I see when I click on TS.

Of course, I realise that TS figures are no more precise than a machine gun driven by a sledgehammer, but " improvement" or " regression" should match in both places, I would have thought.

Swish, where the fk are you?
Come on, good buddy!

Well the money went down on NITELITE - to some pattern !

Gamble foiled

I'm told that the thing to do - was to back at 6 , then lay at 2 !!

Probably right, as it was obvios that money was coming for it.

There might be something in this backing and laying business, but it needs a bit of study !

This message has been edited. Last edited by: Tuppenycat,

Nothing for tomorrow as although quite a few got close to the requirements especially Lough Derg 210E, none had the decisive feel of 'placed to win' from their respective ratings.

Actually I feel there has been far more candidates lately than is normal so perhaps everyone has now got their Christmas money in and we're in for a quieter spell!

You going to back "ANY" - Pipe horse at the moment ???

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Catterick looks the best bet, - but it will need a bit of serious - "Dutching" !

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Think I will go "Christmas Shopping" -

Wait for Pipe at one of the big meetings, if his horses are really sick he'll not run them. If this is a con then he'll enter 3 or 4 for a big hcp and start dutching to the sound of the 1812 Overture!

Even knowing the result, - I still wouldn't back Lough Derg.