...0/27

big Irish delegation today at both meetings - last time he came over to Mussleburgh - he scooped 4 from 4 !!

tc

Alderburn 100L is RPR1 18pts clear and TS1 25 points clear. No OR has yet been awarded over fences.

There are some fancy stables here so a good price looks a strong possibility.

The trainer course record for chases is poor but the T/J is v good. However the ratings themselves are both over 120 which is excellent for a second time only chaser.

Incidentally Alderburn is one of Mark Howards 40 to follow in his excellent 'One Jump Ahead' book.

John are you saying that if 2 independent ratings agree with the Official Handicappers assessment of a horse then we are onto the beginnings of a vdw type selection?.

Thats not a question I can give a simple answer to Walter.

Its not that I am trying to be vague but an awful lot depends on the actual value of each rating and the advantage in points they enjoy (and have enjoyed in the past) over their rivals.

Thankfully the RPR, TS, and OR all work on the same scale 1-140 for the Flat and 1-170 for jumps so we can get three separate appraisals of class that can be directly compared to each other. If you use Massey or some of the other paid or free ratings you cannot directly compare them as they have idiosyncratic scales.

I am beginning to form starting ratings values for 2yos, 3yos, nov hdlers, and nov chsers for all three or any one of the ratings which seems to be able to sort out the winners from the also rans. Though the actual ratings themselves are always tempered by the difference to the 2nd rated and vice versa.

However of the three ratings the most important at the initial stage of their careers seems to be the TS. Though like the OR the RPR seems to become clear after 3 or 4 runs.

Today for example Rosecliff was RPR1 by a big difference but its TS was nothing great (in the 80s if I remember correctly) and I laid it (aftertiming I know, but I can copy and paste my betfair acct if someone would like to see it) at 1.66.

At the moment I'm compiling a list of 3yos to follow based on their RPRS and TSs at grade A courses as 2yos in 2005. The decision to bet or not will depend on their sire stats and quality of opposition but under ideal conditions I hope they will win quite a few races next year.

By starting with he higher values for each rating I hope I will be less susceptable to trainer jiggery pokery with their handicappers as that is an unwanted complication at this stage of my experiments.

John,
I have a formula of sorts in my possession that im told originates from your goodself re- rpr`s & or`s. It came into my hands a while back from a mutual friend, at that time i was asked to keep it to myself which i have done.
I was wondering if you now felt comfortable enough to disclose it to the members?.

Was it the AW stuff?

No i think it covered all sorts of racing.

John the method of rating used enabled anyone to look at a horses last 3 races & calculate whether they were progressive or otherwise.

Walter,

If it is what I think it is then, it was tried last winter on the AW, though the idea is equally valid for both types of turf racing.

I chose the AW because despite their differences the courses have similar characteristics and as there are only three of them then there's an awful lot of C and G form which helps remove the problems caused by the nature of the vagaries of the turf racing.

I started after last Christmas because I felt that the sand form had settled down by then and was going to be indulged in only by the serious sand merchants.

As I have stated the OR and the RPR both work on the same scale which for both types of flat racing is 1-140. I then had a good think about their differences.

In the long term no one can really fool the OH and the mark he awards will eventually accurately gauge the true class of a horse. However it is because of his cautious approach that the OH can be out of phase with a horses latest development.

The OH only makes (on the flat at least as over the jumps the fluctuations are more liberal) large steps up in OR after a win otherwise a good run only generally goes up a pound or two. By the same measure when a horse has lost its form and runs a series of poor races it only goes down a pound at a time, if at all if he is suspicious.

However the RPR records a value based only on each run and can fluctuate quite widely depending on each performance.

So if we take a race and look at a horses recorded RPR and the OR it ran off we can see if it over, under or accurately performed to its OR. If the horse over performed then the RPR is going to be larger than the OR. If the animal underperfomed then the RPR will be lower than the OR.

If the horse overperfomed there is a chance that it is coming back to form if it is an older animal or improving if it is a younger one. Eitherway it suggests that on its next run it may be better class than its rivals if the horses are of similar ORs, or weighted for class as in hcps.

I started taking all the horses in a races' last three runs and dividing their recorded RPRs by the ORs they raced off for each of the three previous runs. I was looking for at least one ˜recent' (make your own mind up as to what you are happy to consider as recent) race where the RPR was at least 10% better than the OR. This is done by simply dividing the RPR recorded by the OR the horse ran off on that occasion and multiplying by 100. If the horse qualifies the calculator will read at least 110.

Let me immediately say that the number of winners with the characteristic of a higher RPR than OR in one or more of their last three races traps a phenomenal amount of winners . However before any shouts of ˜Eureka' start echoing around the forum the problems start exactly at this point and have not as yet been resolved by myself though I will be having another go in January.

What are the problems you ask?

Firstly there are generally several horses with the characteristic described above, and at this stage forget the 10% figure I quoted as that was only my starting point and plenty of 10% better horses were beaten by 5, 6, or 7% better ones.

Secondly, the lower the class of race (ie ˜banded') where there are donkeys that race off marks of 35, its not uncommon to see horses with a percentage advantage of 50% or more recorded at some recent stage but still unable to win! However at the other end, in for example class C races, with ORs of 70+ its rare to find a horse that has got the full 10% advantage, in fact there were races where nearly all the runners had at least one positvely advantaged previous race but none of them had reached my arbitrarily arrived at figure of 10%.

Thirdly, nearly all the horses that had won one of their previous three races had achieved a positive advantage of over 10% but of course the OH had then done his work and put up their OR so that now they were running off a mark that was 5-7lbs higher than the one which they won off and recorded the excellent advatage figure. I was told that on the AW 20% of horses that have won go on to win again in their next three races, but when you think about it this exactly the sort of result that makes it impossible to reach a conclusion as it is neither too high nor too low. For a while I didn't include horses that had won in their last three starts then saw myself exclude some good winners. When I did include them I wasted a lot of bets!

Lastly, I tried ruling out horses with poor win/run ratios, T/C stats, no C or D wins but no advantage seemed to accrue from this, once I even missed a 33/1 because of my meddling!

This year I will be concentrating on grades D, E, and F. However for each grade I intend to be more flexable with my advantage percentage rule demanding a bigger advantage in grade F and less in grade D. and will mostly be looking to dutch all possible qualifiers as long as the odds are reasonable enough.

Lucky?

Cruising River 120T has only had 4 runs over obstacles but is RPR1 by 10pts, TS1 by 39pts and OR1jt. Over fences none of the opposition have ever bettered its recorded RPR and TS lto. And only one of the opposition has ever managed to better the RPR when over hdls and that was only once.

T/C is 20% and T/J also 20% for chases.

Currently 11/8.

Hi JIB
i like your AW system post, cant say i fully understand it but when i've re-read it a few times i'm sure it will click into place. but most of all what i like is someone putting up VDW selections before a race, i admire your cojones for putting yourself up there to be shot at & i also like your selections alot keep up the good work
all the best
Larry

Cruising River looks spot on for the 1.20 esp with Mick Divine a NR. - however odds are now 1/1.

The "HEN" certainly looks to have taken Tim Murphy - "Under her Wing" this season.

-

In the 1.50 - in "ticking the boxes" for NATAL -

I have simply run out of boxes to tick !!!

A - VDW horse if ever !!

-

aggh ! - it is giving 18lbs to the Pipe Horse !!!

Will VDW triumph ????


tc

This message has been edited. Last edited by: Tuppenycat,

Natal is going to have one hell of an OR if it goes in again today.

jib,walter larry tc et all
did you notice the price of the 2nd favs in both Gardasee's race and Rosecliff's races?

Natal looks nailed on,against not much opposition,1/2 is short,but should it be shorter,I wouldn't like to lay it anyway.

I wont be laying it either PD, but it seems a strange decision to run it in this type of race.

As I cant understand the reasoning its no bet for me either way.

JIB - 'you still @ - johngringo@click21.com. ???

Amarula Ridge 100D is not rated by RPR and TS over fences but over hdls it has always been better than its rivals.

The recent run after his summer break definitely looks like a bolt tightner and he's now been sent to one of trainer's favourite courses.


Recorded RPR1 by 8pts, recorded TS1 by 23pts, recorded OR1 by 5pts.

T/C 4/9, T/J 0/1 for fences.