Well done JIB !! - justback, and looked at the race.

Looks like ESTE was given a gentle ride once it was clear that a lot of effort would be needed at the end of the race.

Like you say, there is no point in pushing these debutants too soon.

As LaryD says tho, that particular team have a very good strike rate fto.

2 horses at 6/4 is an 80% dutch so I just left the race alone.

tc

The courses/tracks animals run or qualify to run at in the case of greyhounds give an indication at least of their ability.
There is so much to consider but always in the trainer/handlers mind is the conscious thought that he must be holding all through the process from the beginning to the end.
This is what loads the odds in your favour in the long run but all types need to be exploited at different times or you become predictable to those who are watching what is going on.
Sometimes a job is done early at a certain class of track with one type of greyhound & perhaps the next time the track is visited with a better class of dog we may bide our time but all tracks have a basic qualifying time that must be aquired.
There is always a lot to take in & you have to be very careful & patient sometimes of where you go. Ive waited up to six months in the past with a greyhound & i know of others who have sat longer for the right opportunity to present it`self.

P.S. I get good info from the Peter Monteith stable John from a m8 who is a match reporter with BBC Scotland no call today though, he must be busy eh?.

Walter,

If I was a trainer there are more things I would keep to myself than share.

I would probably be called several names for it, perhaps the kindest being enigmatic, but then again the captain of a ship doesnt have to explain each turn of the rudder he orders.

My best subordinates would be those that could read my mind and silently share my enthusiasm for the tactics employed.

Gardasee 120N has a huge advantage over its rivals using the RPRs and the TS ratings. The trainer stats are excellent too.

However there is no drop in class and it is one of the two penalty carriers in the race. I dont back double penalties as the trainers are usually worried about he horses OR if it runs up another win whilst still a novice, however one penalty when the ratings are so favourable looks okay.

On the downside this is a race for 3yo hdlers on heavy ground so a surprise is not unimaginable.

Gardasee has 12 picks in the selection box with 4 naps to its name so I'm not sure I will get the even money I insist on.

Pat Haslam is as cute a Northern Trainer as you could wish for !

And when he teams up with a certain "Tony McCoy" - then watch out!!

there are 2 at Newcastle -

12.50 - Nocatee - win bet !

1.20 - JIBs race - Royal Master - "EW" @ 12/1



tc

TC & JIB
i'm reporting you to the VDW police you are putting selections up BEFORE the race that is not allowed stop it AT ONCE or youre VDW membership cards will be withdrawn
all the best
Larry

Gardasee is an interesting one, JIB.

Top on a very successful backing system, it is also given as a lay by a guy who's good!

Of course, I know nothing of jump racing ( gave it up years ago bc of things like McKelvey), but the only negative I can spot is G's jockey ( poor win record at track).

As for the vdw aspects, I've given up on that too!

even more reason to dutch the chases sean.

have dutched with the fav in the 12.50

I make the price about 2-3 Dutching for an even return on those two in the 12:50.

no I am happy to ducth for a saver on my stake.
The objective is max return on my selection.

not an unbrekable rule but policy when I am going against a short odds favourite.

tc

But it wasn't a bet, was it?

No EpiG for me it was only a selection.

My only point here is trying to demonstrate that it is possible to find horses that on the day are too far ahead of their rivals to be likely to be beaten.

It's not a system but a judgement and the decision to bet depends on what I feel is value. I saw on BF that early on some people got 6/5 on Gardasee. When I logged on however it was in to 1.9 and I asked for 2.05 but didnt get it.

If the going hadnt been described as 'heavy' I would have taken the 1.9 but I wouldnt want my own idiosyncrasies to interfere with the point I'm trying to demonstrate.

As a follow up to my original post on Gardasee I would now like to add that whilst we dont know where it will next be placed, it will now have have a double penalty (ie a stone more to carry and the beady eye of the OH watching it v closely), but those mesmerized by form figs will probably ignore what this means and back it and are more than likely to lose their money.

TC

Well done with Nocatee!

Yes, I understand what you're getting at and I agree about the illusion of the CR. One thing about such horses with all the ratings etc in their favour is that they're conspicuous, this is bound to be reflected in the price and if such a horse were to go off at over 3-1 I would suspect that something was wrong. In this sense a short price can be seen as confirmatory to some extent. Have you analysed the results with respect to SP?

Happy with the 9/2

Looks as if Royal Master hated the ground tho'

No, but if Gardasee had been 6/4 - 2/1 after all the selection box tips and naps I wouldnt have liked it at all.

However if it had been 3/1 then I would have thought it a v good bet as the thing that had taken its place was probably being exagerated.

T Tate is a 'small' trainer so we were likely to get a better price than if it were trained by Pipe or Hobbs etc.

Each case is different and I dont want to make the mistake of the vdw orthodoxists of sticking ridgidly to given examples because the picture is only as clear as its salients and has to be studied in the clarity of light and not in the dimness of the distant past.

Here's one that should have the vdwers clutching their sides in mirth: High Cotton 120S.

The downside first:

1)Still a maiden after 26 starts over obstacles
2)Trainer has a poor course record
3)Now less than 30 days away from his eleventh birthday.
4)Needless to point out it has an AR of zero!

So why is it a selection:

1)RPR1 by 14pts
2)TS1 by a massive 55pts
3)OR1 by 7pts.
4)It has always been better than its rivals today, once having had an OR of 123
5)T/J stat is v good.
6)Dropped from lto from 18k to 4k and course grade from C to D, and where it recorded good figs, certainly better than anything the opposition has ever achieved.
7)This is the lowest class of Chase that it has ever run in.
8)It is a proven out and out stayer.
9)There is a good chance of a decent price because of its aged maiden status.

Opposed by £40.000





Massive Ts advantage the for HC

tc

This message has been edited. Last edited by: Tuppenycat,

A well spent £40K !!