I`ll try again sometime, my boy has beat my old record but none of us have broken the 1000 mark as yet.

I'll settle for one each.

Buggered if I can get the ordinary one within 8 of your highest. Little bugger just buries his nose when I think I might have it.

Aye if you swing too early it`s a miss or a nosedive but then again you need to take him a little early to get the desired effect on that one.

Mckelvey:

RPR1 13pts clear
TS1 1pt clear
OR1 7pts clear

Three seperate ratings make him the class horse.

Carreer Bests:

RPR1 (Hurdles and Chases) 16pts clear
TS1 (Chases) 1pt clear
OR1 (Hurdles and Chases) 6pts clear

Has always been better than todays rivals

Trainer:

Trainer/Course (Chases) 1/3
Trainer/Jockey (all) 0/3
Trainer/Owner (Chases) 2/4

Horse is CD and Going in grade C hcp (Topweight then, and less weight today in a non hcp). This v easy win was 3 weeks ago and earned the comments:

"jumped well, close up, led after 4 out, ridden clear after 2 out, stayed on strongly."

This horse should be odds on but I got 5/4+ and you can still get better than evens.

- any way neck on the block.

CHEPSTOW

NICHOLS has 27% here - of interest

1.35 runs 2 VALFONI and GIVE ME LOVE pref for V - but !

3.50 THE LUDER


WETHERBY

You would expect Howard Johnson - he has 4 - but difficult to sort out.

Richard Guest normaly comes into form in Dec and runs 2

1.45 St PIRRAN

3.25 SHANNONS PRIDE ??

2.50 MCKELVY of course but maybe a saver on JULIUS CAESARE


HAYDOCK

again Howard Johnson - he has a 47% strike rate here rising to 57% with Dobin

1.55 LORD TRANSCEND

2.30 Sue Smith another course specialist runs BETTER DAYS

3.00 Irish Raider DUN DOIRE again save with Johnson on DEJA VUE

3.35 A bit speculitive , but THE COOL GUY looks to have it on the ratings - Nice trainer jock combination


SANDOWN

A real conumdrum nothing stands out.

maybe

2.05 RACING DEMON/IRON MAN

3.10 ALLSTAR/ADOPTED HERO





tc

This message has been edited. Last edited by: Tuppenycat,

Bloody Typical

touch of secunditus -

Think "The Ground" won the day .



Howard Johnson was OK at Wetherby

1st @ 10/1 - 2nd @ 20/1 - 2nd @ 4/1 - UP

- Lord Transcend was giving 24 lbs to the winner in that ground

- Better Days lost by a nose

- Richard Guest isn't firing yet, but watch his Chasers at - Ayr,Fakenham,Hexham,Market Rasen, Newcastle,Sedgfield,Southwell, and Towster.esp in novices and maidens.

- Think Henrieta might have found a new Best Mate - in Racing Demon - did you see the way that it came up that hill.

- Dun Doire and The Cool Guy - saved the day at Haydock.

tc

Don't know whats up with Pipe either his stable genuinly has problems, or he is just putting up smokescreens !! the Tanterary race was a "Bloody Joke" !!

This message has been edited. Last edited by: Tuppenycat,

John In Braasil wrote:

"Has always been better than today`s rivals".

This has to be the crux of any successful method
the animal then only has to be in form & placed within correct race conditions to collect.

Hi walter,

Judging by todays performance we musn't forget a tube of superglue to spread on the seat of the jockey's jodhpurs!

John, that`s racing as im sure your aware the horse you identified as a good thing would have won with a clear round of that i have no doubt.
I bet him myself to a tune that would cater for 10 yrs membership on the other place but then that`s my choice to do that & no one forced it on me.

First Look 320K looks placed to win.

RPR1 and TS1 both by huge margins hes dropping in class from race grade A to E and from course grade A to D.

T/C and T/J stats are fine. I only hope they sell superglue in Kelso!

Walter I had my biggest bet for sometime on it too .

However Racing Demon had a v similar profile to Mckelvey so I had had a decent bet on that first . Though I am always wary of these top class races for improving horses so it wasnt as big as Mckelveys.

I had bet Onewayat 7/1 last night and laid it back at 9/2 before the off so no damage done there. And of my 3 hcp chses dutching method bets two won so I finished a wee bit up on the day.

mmm - First Look ???

That Johnson Wilie team - rear their head again !!

a dutch with ESPONA has to be considered !!

tc

I dont see how TS or RPR can be considered important when 75% of the field are unrated, it's a second hand guess, isn't it? And how about Fair Shake or Nae Bother At All or Third Empire? That's already a third of the field (including the two above) as immediate possibilities and with 16 runners any manner of accident might happen. Are these kind of races really predictable enough to be rewarding in terms of both time and money?

EpiG,

The horses that are having their first run are generally treated gently. They may well in time prove themselves better than the current RPR/TS1 but it wont usually be asked of them to prove that on their debuts.

Those that have had a run or two are obviously still going to improve but then you have to consider the difference of what they have so far achieved against what the selection has done. Obviously if the difference is only a handful of points or the RPR/TS1 has scored less than for example 100 in Nov Hdls then not much confidence can be awarded to it.

Thirdly if the horse has also gone a couple of runs or so without winning in better company and is then dropped it really gives the impression of being placed to win. (Roushayd)

Think the drop in class is important - last race - 15k 3rd now a 3k race.

RP- "found this an even tougher test. He likes soft ground and will surely find an opening when his sights are set lower."

ESTEPONA however - 3rd lto in a 34k flat race !!

Howard Johnson has pretty much an open chequebook when buying horses for Wilie.

can't realy consider any of the rest.

JiB: You're the expert in maidens, so I'll take your word for it. At best it strikes me that there are at least five viable candidate selections, for me that's too many.

the trouble with most systems is they dont take debutants into account however WYLIE/JOHNSON/LEE have a very good 1st time out record so i have dutched Estepona & First Look i also like Blue buster & Nae bother at all but the front 2 are too short to dutch 4 in this race so my money is on aforementioned horses

Placed to win is placed to win.

Good horses like Estepona are usually placed to learn first, its called apprenticeship.

Should they meet again the result may well be different, but when Monteith placed First Look he would have calculated that the debutants would not be thrashed to go after his horse (it set too high a standard for a fto animal), and that the already rans were too far below the level of his horses' form.

Remember the horse had form figs of 23, the owners would be screaming for a prize, the horse had come to the boil, all that needed to be done was find the opportunity.

It is worth considering that if First Look had form figs of 11 he wouldnt have been in this maiden hurdle and would have had to carry a double penalty in a novice event. So much for the CR!

First Look was second CR, I'd say.