Sean,

You could count me among the converts. as I'd never heard of VDW until I came across this thread (well the original one).

However, I have rarely posted on here, as I would not want to mislead anyone with my very imperfect knowledge.

Anyone who has read my various attempts in the Today's Tips section right from Today's Thoughts right through to today's Any Which Way But... would have a chronicle of how not to apply VDW, though not from want of trying I can tell you.

Oldtimer

Certainly - Investor and Vanman were examples of "Total Conversions" - but - like "Born again Christians" - I don't think that their - "Simplistic, Dogmatic, and Inflexible" - approach to the subject, has furthered the cause by much - rather the contrary I think.

-

Black Cat has shown signs of interest, but I doubt that he is a total convert.

-

As for the rest - Fulham et al - They are welcome to continue their Anorack fueled discussions in "Another Place"

tc

This message has been edited. Last edited by: Tuppenycat,

Old Timer,

I consider your posts to be among the best thought out articles on racing to be found on the 'net.
I too have learnt from this thread.

My major concern is that the " best horse doesn't always win when most think it should".

This could be the main cause of any failure of selections to match up to expected performance in your own threads or everyone else's.

quote:

Originally posted by Seanrua:

My major concern is that the " best horse doesn't always win when most think it should".

This could be the main cause of any failure of selections to match up to expected performance in your own threads or everyone else's.

Sean
IMO, VDW's method is a simple mechanism for identifying the best horse in the race, and then knowing whether to bet or not: no mystique, no missing links, no each way or place bets, and rarely more than one horse in a race.
How else could anyone hope to achieve his strike rates, unless they learned to follow his formula, and, in doing so, eliminate 'chance' from their selection process?
With all due respect to OT and countless others who have tried, until they grasp the basic concepts, and learn to apply them within the structure he provided many times, there will remain an element of guesswork in their approach which may occasionally lead them to the 'orchard', but too often leave them in 'the country lanes'.
It isn't guesswork, and, from my own experience, I know that, as he pointed out, temperament is the hardest of all to acquire, but until one can learn that "If there is the slightest doubt, leave well alone" they will never emulate his success rate.
That doesn't imply backing only odds-on shots either, as his selections clearly show.
In most weeks, depending on the meetings available, there are only normally 10 to 20 races worthy of attention, and, as VDW said, he would only expect to bet in 20% of those, so, realistically, you are looking at 2/4 bets most weeks of the season.
While that approach may not suit everyone, those that look for more bets, are, as a result, diluting the potential, and must live with the consequences, but surely the whole aim of the true believer should be never to put their cash down unless there is reasonable certainty of getting it back, and with interest?
Be as cynical as you wish, but there is nothing in the above that is not based on cold unemotional logic!
It also helps to be positive, too, but that is another trait he strongly advised that is completely ignored by so many.

This message has been edited. Last edited by: johnd,

I guess it's time for another VDW challenge. I suggest it run from Saturday (17th) till December 31st, minimum 40 selections, if nobody can get at least 70% winners I think it's time to conclude the thing doesn't work, after all, it's been under discussion here for about 4 years, eventually some conclusion should be reachable.

Thank you, johnd.
I think I can use the " simple mechanism" you mentioned. Would you agree, or is there something i'm missing?

As to the " temperament" thing, I find its definition so vague that it is impossible for me to disagree with your view that this is the essence of punting success. What it is, however, I have no idea.

Personally, i feel it's impossible to remove all risk from life, so, imo, a bet is never guaranteed to succeed.

My experience has shown me time and time again that the " best" horse in the race doesn't always win. Nothing positive or negative about this - just a fact of racing life.

In fact, it would be a great help to those of us who are not as advanced in these matters as your good self, if you would start a thread in the system's testing section which would give clear indications a to why the "fav" in my " small fields" thread fared as it did.
This can, of course, be provided once the race is over. I don't mind at all about after-timing etc.
There isn't much data there yet, but I've been prepared to stick my neck out and test a theory. Your input would be most welcome.

EPI

yeah, bring it on!
No way will anything be proven; few will even bother to submit entries; there will be little agreement and plenty of slagging.
BUT, I'm all for it - health permitting.

ps

johnd,

I take it then, that OT has not yet achieved " true believer" status but is still only a novice monk?

Perhaps four years isn't long enough to wear the saffron robes of the initiate? Seven is nearer the mark for devotees of Buddha, I guess.

We can assume, therefore that NONE has converted to true VDW (yet).
I had thought Investor and Vanman were there, but reading thru the comments from the fully-fledged vdwers, I feel they were, like the rest of us, seriously misguided wannabees.

Pity that. Just when i didn't want not to be positive. Still numbers are numbers, so ZERO it is.
No bggar has converted to VDW from reading this thread.
Well, don't it just make your brown eyes blue?
What a bummer!!

Unfortunately i have to agree with johnd,I now average between 10 to 14 bets a month on occasions i have waited 8 days before striking a bet But they are nearly always worth waiting for.Vdw said that he backed 20% of class form horses he thought would win,This to my mind means that he viewed the horses he did back as having an 80%+ chance of winning.What deludes so many is how he would arrive at such a figure.

I would like to cast your mind back to our friend prominent King.This horse in vdw's eyes was a 3/1 shot and was 6/1 in the betting.Mr Kildare was also a lot lower than his forcast price suggested.Beacon Light was 9/4 and the odds were totally against him.

There is a horse declared for Godolphin over the weekend into the dark with good cons figures of 111 the horse hasn't run for 323 days but his last 2 wins came in september 2oo4.The questions that we have to ask ourselves are ,Can this horse win after such a long lay off,Would it still be considered in form,Is it consistent,Does it have the ability,Capabiity and probaility of winning.There's a lot of work to do.But there is always only one answer at the end of it.

Take care and cheerio.

This message has been edited. Last edited by: investor,

Hi Investor!

Nice to hear from you, old mate!

Maybe you can tell us - from the horse's mouth, as it were - are you the only successful convert to VDW that this thread has ever produced?

I'd have to agree with both yourself and johnd that SELECTIVITY is very important, AND, that making too many wagers is a widespread weakness among punters ( myself included).

Anyway, I trust you're still making it pay and I do hope you and johnd can supply a few horses for the forthcoming contest.
It should be interesting reading; I shall be very keen to know the 3 or 4 bets a week that you and john agree are " cast -iron" selections.

Looking forward to it!

Sean
Read and try and understand my post.And like i said at the end of it "Ceerio and take care."

Ceers, Investor!

What do you make of the dutching thread?

it's the complete opposite of the cast-iron job, isn't it?

Sean
I don't know where to locate said thread but it's probably a load of rubbish like most other things that are now on this subject.

Investor,
Good to see you back again,I hope you stick around.The forum might take off again.

Beacon Light you mentioned 9/4,I know the s.p. was 1/1 money,was 9/4 the forecast price?

Investor

"Systems Testing and Results".

Dutching is far from a load of rubbish.
Ask VDW.

I haven't read the booklets and i've been in profit all year!

Pipedreamer

Beacon Light was a 6/4 shot in the forecast from the Sporting Life. I have no idea where the 9/4 comes from, but there again I can't see how Investor can be sure VDW looked on PK as a 3/1 shot. Some of the figures being bandied about on the other forum beggar belief. Barney and Investor have horse being given 90% + chances of winning. This is one horse not the best three.

Be Lucky

Nice, too, to hear from Pipedreamer and Mtoto!

And there's a name from the past that i'd forgotten: Barney.
Barney is another convert, along with Investor and Vanman, I believe.

Anyway, as we seem to have a quorum of vdwers present, here's my rough vdw selection bash for today:

230 Ayr
ICE PLANET, EW ( 42d2yes)
Johnston's Diamond ( 13d3no)
Golden Dixie (13d2no)

Ice ew would be my small bet at odds better than 5/1. The mumbo jumbo within the brackets is all my own; basically, the higher the numbers the better, and yes means last 3 formfigs are 12 or less).

Now to a more valuable race at Newbury;

215 Newbury

I think Investor mentioned this race yesterday. It's also one that features in a couple of experiments I'm running in the Systems testing section.

Anyway, though I firmly believe that small fields spell danger to punters, here is my rough vdw type selection:

NOTABLE GUEST ( 58d yes)
Into the dark ( 28dyes)
Frank sonata ( 29d no)
Compton bolter ( 27d yes)

Despite my misgivings about these dodgy small fields, I make Notable Guest the top VDW bet of the day!

Over to you, ye great masters of scripture.

I get the feeling that Barney and Vanman are one and the same.

Dutching - "Into the Dark and Notable Guest"

Sean

From a VDW perspective, Notable Guest has far more in his favour than Investor's horse.

From "Compton Bolters" perspective - Its 2 fingers to VDW

Thank fk for dutching: Compton Bolter 25/1!
Those small fields are dodgy.

My vdw rough selections were very bad today.

Still, I only wasted 8 minutes on them.