Have a read of this:

Author Comment
Mike



Registered: 29/12/04
Posts: 122 Yesterday at 05:20 PM

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Tosh.



Firstly, you owe the Author of the Application and myself an unreserved apology for your unfounded attack, they are blatant lies and accusations fermented by a small minded idiot which are totally without foundation. ALL your points are incorrect in regards to the app being for sale or advertised. You owe this apology, however, it will not be accepted. If this apology is not made publicly I am sure that your stature amongst other members will be in question, or perhaps you have no self respect or concern in this quarter.



Let me make this quite clear. The Application is, and never has been for sale, or advertised as you have stated.



It was posted to show what could be done, but then if you had bothered to read the previous postings you would have known this, but then again ignorance is bliss.



Your small minded negative and naïve attitude is I fear the foundation of many a forum, and not needed or wanted. Is it deemed to be lazy if one uses a calculator to achieve the same result?. Many who are new to VDW or for that matter those that do not have the time, would for one week have had this time consuming task at their disposal.



Once again as in other forums one idiot spoils it for others.



I can think of no reason to add any further posts.




tomobrien

Registered: 18/05/05
Posts: 22 Yesterday at 06:48 PM

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Mike,

I notice the original thread you posted has vanished, so I don't know what the latest comments were like, but I myself came in for some waspish comments from the self same Tosh, for trying to support your efforts. You have my sympathy; prejudice and narrow-mindedness are all some of these people spew out; that and a stream of drivel masquerading as VDW methodology. Good luck with your spreadsheets, I hope they will be appreciated somewhere else. Let me know if you decide to post elsewhere. Best wishes

tomobrien


barrison

Registered: 15/12/04
Posts: 22 Yesterday at 07:19 PM

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Mike,

sorry you have been driven away by some idiot, I wish you well and hope your spread sheet does you well.



Barry


__________________
Barry

Tosh

Registered: 14/04/05
Posts: 123 Yesterday at 08:46 PM

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Mike,

< !--[if !supportEmptyParas]--> < !--[endif]-->

Good job its not Russia, Free speech is still allowed here.

< !--[if !supportEmptyParas]--> < !--[endif]-->

A few points,

a) I don't owe you anything.

b)

Just admit it, you came back here after months in the wilderness with some new-fangled contraption that can divide.
Shortly afterwards you post streams of lays.
After little interest is generated here, on the Betfair forum VDW is rapidly the topic of the day quickly followed by Links to the site.
< !--[if !supportEmptyParas]--> < !--[endif]-->

Even VDW, he of mathematical mistakes, could make that lot add up to six.

< !--[if !supportEmptyParas]--> < !--[endif]-->

Some more general points:

< !--[if !supportEmptyParas]--> < !--[endif]-->

1."If this apology is not made publicly I am sure that your stature amongst other members will be in question, or perhaps you have no self respect or concern in this quarter."



My "stature" as you put it will be in question by who, You? I have never claimed any stature, neither have I been awarded any by others, so in this respect the second assumption is mostly correct I don't care. But thanks for pointing out you're a fan.

< !--[if !supportEmptyParas]--> < !--[endif]-->

< !--[if !supportEmptyParas]--> < !--[endif]-->

2. "Let me make this quite clear. The Application is, and never has been for sale, or advertised as you have stated. "

< !--[if !supportEmptyParas]--> < !--[endif]-->

I cannot work out this sentence, is it for sale or not?

< !--[if !supportEmptyParas]--> < !--[endif]-->

< !--[if !supportEmptyParas]--> < !--[endif]-->

"Your small minded negative and naïve attitude is I fear the foundation of many a forum, and not needed or wanted."
< !--[if !supportEmptyParas]--> < !--[endif]-->

Yet again we are partly in agreement, many internet forums are formed and indeed based on the desire for people working towards a goal "to lend a helping hand" something which a small minority of people usually but not exclusively bookmakers and layers and agree that some of my comments, as you point out, are not needed or wanted by such types. In fact it can cause some to spit the dummy right out. As witnessed today.

< !--[if !supportEmptyParas]--> < !--[endif]-->

"Once again as in other forums one idiot spoils it for others."
< !--[if !supportEmptyParas]--> < !--[endif]-->

More agreement, this is becoming more than a coincidence, sorry to be the "idiot" who has spoiled it for you and one or two others. But as McRirrick and others say "they don't like it up em".

You will not find your easy picking's here. These forumites are a far more enlightened bunch than your common or garden lemmings.

< !--[if !supportEmptyParas]--> < !--[endif]-->

< !--[if !supportEmptyParas]--> < !--[endif]-->

Tomobrien,

< !--[if !supportEmptyParas]--> < !--[endif]-->

There were no other comments, just the waspish ones. Must have touched a nerve eh.

< !--[if !supportEmptyParas]--> < !--[endif]-->

Barrison,

< !--[if !supportEmptyParas]--> < !--[endif]-->

< !--[if !supportEmptyParas]--> < !--[endif]-->

Oh poor little Barry, welcome back to posting. Not barry dennis are you? Keep up your Bismarks,

< !--[if !supportEmptyParas]--> < !--[endif]-->

Outstanding tipping!!!!!!!


tomobrien

Registered: 18/05/05
Posts: 22 Yesterday at 09:07 PM

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Tosh,

Don't know if it touched a nerve or not. It was all a bit inarticulate, to be honest.

tomobrien


SadKen

Registered: 05/01/05
Posts: 167 Today at 06:02 PM

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Dear Mike,

Profile,

Tosh- Occupation Time Waster, (by his own admittance).

Types you'll never win with.

Best Wishes

Sad Ken.


barrison

Registered: 15/12/04
Posts: 22 Today at 06:22 PM

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Hi Tosh,

no I'm not Barry Dennis if only,



It was just your remarks, seemed like a little boy who only thinks people are all money grabers.



Barry


__________________
Barry

Ahoy

Registered: 22/12/04
Posts: 207 Today at 08:42 PM

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Sad Ken

If only the likes of you Hensman, Alan B , Pro and indeed Monster would come back posting - if not i feel this forum is doomed.To much crap going on here lately.


SadKen

Registered: 05/01/05
Posts: 167 Today at 09:25 PM

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Dear Ahoy,

I said I would not post anymore, but can't hold my water when people try to spoil things for others. I assumed by Mike's previous well standing that he was being the victim of a Time Wasting attack. Webmasters comments have thrown that into the air, I did not view the actual comments, and assumed, rightly or wrongly, that basically it was something that perhaps Mike should not have taken the bait on, in view of Tosh's admitted occupation.

Anyway I still enjoy reading ALL contributions on this forum, and will hopefully continue to do so.

Those others you mention put in excellent contributions. I think Alan B will be back as he (in my opinion), is dedicated to VDW, and he will get it down to the absolute tee, such is his commitment.

Just one point I would like to make is "LET THE FIRST FEW MONTHS GO BY", not many seem to adhere to this part of VDW advice ?

Best Wishes

Sad Ken.

So it looks like Fulham, Barney, Investor, et all are on the move again!

Brace yourselves lads!!

We might be lucky that they wont have the nerve to join again

JohnD,

Have to ask what possible use my none VDW selections would be to you? I'm doing it all wrong, remember you have mentioned this several times. I would far rather discuss how to get it right using your ideas. In fact I would like to hear your ideas, I have gone into a fair bit of detail om mine. I didn't have a bet at Chester or back anything at the York Dante meeting so it would be a long wait for any selections from me. Have to admit this has been the worst year in the last 7 for bets, I just can't find anything I'm happy with from a VDW perspective. I backed Oratorio in the Guineas and then didn't have another bet until Epsom. Since then there was only been 2 other bets, and 1 of those was only a bet because of the antics of the likely winner in the prelims. If I had been posting up selections on that day (for that race) it would have been a no bet race. JIB and Ectoo would have loved that especially if I had then claimed a logical winner later.
I'm sorry if I misunderstood, but as this is the VDW thread I though Var was a VDW selection. Also I made him the c/form horse based on just my ratings, but as I said he lacked consistency. I would have been more than happy to forgive his last race, first of the season and a bad draw. I couldn't forgive the race before that, ok it was worth a lot of money but was it really a reason to forgive an 11 length beating in a 5f race? Don't think VDW went in for a lot of forgiveness. You may well be correct that if the runs are cherry picked he is more consistent than the bare figures show, but I can see no proof that's how VDW worked.
To be honest if VDW was still writing I would ask him the same question that Ectoo asked you about certainties. I had a horse 6 lengths clear coming to the last furlong on the flat, it fell before the post.

JIB,

I find it very interesting to look at the field even before the 5 day decs for some of the big races. Jockeys are something I take very little notice of, yes, there are some I prefer but I trust the trainer. Much like the going, a good trainer will pull a horse if he isn't happy with the going or he can't get the right jockey. As I've said before I'm looking to see what the trainer is doing with THIS horse, not the other horses in his stable. So while the trainer may have multiple entries in a race I'm only looking for the consistent (in form) horses or improvers. A bit like I don't care how many horses win after 7 or what ever days. I'm looking to see when THIS horse performs. It's not a lot of help knowing 75% of races are won by a horse running in 10 days, if THIS horse runs best after a 30 day + break.

Be Lucky

Mtoto

Var was racing against the best sprinters in the world from an impossible draw.
Perhaps you should start to read the form instead of just looking at the numbers?

Re- the fall out on the other board.

Just the other day the same two gentlemen concerned held a little discussion on the members selections page entitled the 4.30 Redcar.
Now a statement was made by one of them that was given special attention by the other.They both seemed to have a healthy respect for each other at that stage as well.

Here`s how it went,

Tosh : 3.05pm Post Deleted.

Mike : 6.18pm Tosh you certainly are not wrong with that statement.

Mike : 6.24pm Tosh has made an excellent point that should be heeded by us all.

Unfortunately the 3.05 post was pulled before most members would have had an opportunity to read it.

JohnD,

I find your reply a little strange to say the least. I have already said Var was top on my numbers it was after reading his form he failed. I accept he was running against the top sprinter(s) from a bad draw but I wasn't happy it was a form run. VDW said use the ratings to check what the form says, I did, and the ratings for that race confirmed the form was up not up to HIS standard. You keep saying VDW is simple and others are making it complicated, but isn't trying to read things into the form complicated? When he went over for the race they knew they would be taking on the top sprinters they must have been trying for the very good place money at the very least. It was a bad run draw, or no draw. I can find only one example where VDW forgave a bad run and still backed the horse.
I will carry on reading the form book, but can I respectfully suggest that you spend a little time reading and understanding the VDW literature. Don't take my word for it ask Lee if Var was a VDW bet, would he have backed it? Of course all of this is a waste of time if Var wasn't a VDW selection but what was it doing on this thread?

Be Lucky

A lot of interesting things here for me to catch up with. Let's see if a month of treatment has improved my punting.

345 York, Coronation Stakes.

Basically, my old interpretation of " VDW methodology" but based now on the top six in LADBROKES EARLY PRICES as taken from the RP paper.

Next the old win prize money over number of wins thing, plus a figure for the animal's last winning race.

Then, I weed out any that have a " last three form fig" total of more than 12 ( so-called consistency??).
In this race, it eliminated both market leaders - Damson and Virginia Waters. Ho hum.

Finally, my favourite factor of all - " speed figures".

In all, it went something like this:

Short list graded by prize money check;
Virginia Waters and Cape Columbine - joint top
Damson
Maids causeway
Karen's Caper

Take out VW and D.

Remaining three are OK for speed - in my opinion.
So,
CAPE COLUMBINE
MAIDS CAUSEWAY
KAREN'S CAPER are the three.

Dunno how to split them, so, either, no bet, or plump for any one to PLACE.

Right, now over to the experts.

Just for comparison, here are three of my NON-VDW selections:

210 Redcar, Strathan
320 Redcar, Industrial Star
330 Ayr, Ballich.

All place only bets.

This should get some of ye snorting with fury and contempt.
Comments, criticism, suggestions and insults all welcomed, PROVIDED, profit IS INCREASED by your post.

Sean,

Good to see you back!

Good to have you back Seanrua - hope everything goes as well as possible for you.

My point/query is not aimed at you specifically, but to the readership as a whole:

I realise that ratings are a part of a mechanical procedure to be used as a guide only.

Now, looking at "The Ultimate Wheil Of Fortune" and the article dated April 13 1985 entitled "The Missing Link?" VDW illustrates a few points using the Sandown card 5/1/85.

I quote " Because my own ratings have caused some concern in the past, I have used those provided by the press which can be checked by anyone....The forecast and first set of ratings are taken from the Sporting life (SL) and the second set of ratings the Daily Mail (DM) "

Looking at the 1.00 there are 6 horses listed.

Now under the SL ratings, Wing And A Prayer had a rating of 26, which was 2nd from bottom (SL ratings were 36, 34, 36, 0, 26, 55) In respect of the DM ratings, the horse was 2nd rated with 77 (78, 74, 76, 54, 77, 50)

Wing And A Prayer won at 5/4.

VDW wrote " No question about the class/form horse Wing And A prayer in this one. Everything goes his way and with a pull of half a stone, it would be a shock if he blotted the book. Class, consistent pull at the weight, all three wins over this distance, has been running in better class than the remainder. For good measure both time and form ratings also put him out in front" (my emphasis)

Similarly, in the 3.00, the winner Cool Gin is 2nd from bottom on the SL ratings, but this seems to be disregarded by VDW who is keen to extol the class/form attributes.

This is an example of the difficulty I have with VDW. If I were being cynical, I could say that bits and pieces of the methodology are conveniently passed-over when giving examples of past winners. Something that is very easy to do when looking at past winners, but not so easy to do for future winners.

If these horses had not won, it would have been easy to point to the poor SL ratings.

This message has been edited. Last edited by: Trojan,

Trojan,

A wonderful bit of undertaking!

Well Done!

Trojan

The SL ratings worked in reverse, the lowest is the best except when it is 0 because it has no rating. I have no idea why they were set out like that, but it does say that'show to use them in the SL.

Be Lucky

Thanks Mtoto

Ooops.....I've made a real prat of myself as usual...I'll leave my post though, as it may be helpful if anyone had the same misconception as myself regarding the SL ratings

This message has been edited. Last edited by: Trojan,

quote:

Originally posted by john in brasil:
Trojan,
A wonderful bit of undertaking!
Well Done!

quote:

Originally posted by Trojan:
Thanks Mtoto
...I'll leave my post though, as it may be helpful if anyone had the same misconception as myself regarding the SL ratings

Oh dear! The "corpse" was still alive!!!!

Trojan,

Not only have you made a prat of yourself you've made one of me as well!

Thanks for the welcome, guys!

We may not be too happy about this, but the rough VDW-type selections finished
FIRST
SECOND
FOURTH ( unplaced).

My own three bets that I posted as comparison were
2nd, NR and nowhere - losing about 40p.

What I cannot understand is why none of the VDW experts helped me pick the "winner of winners" or whatever the fk it is: after all, I'd given them a decent short-list to pick from!

What I am certain of, though, is that no bggr knew the racing certainty till the first horse crossed the line.
Perhaps, when rewinding after the race, we are supposed to note that the lame horse was the winner! This could be a very useful clue for after-timing.
Hmmm, now I wonder if I could market a few back-playing tapes to help with those old booklets? Could be a nice little earner on eedjits-bay.
The Reverse, cross, flying, double Dutch racing , missing link, certainty, perhaps?

Yes, that should attract 'em in, I'd say.

Black Cat:
What do you think of Pertemps Magus in the 5:40 at Ayr? It looks a clear enough selection to me but it's the only runner outside the magic 28 days.

Hi Epi

I have not looked at racing today - other commitments.

BlackCat

A question for those that believe consistent form has some relevance.

If consistency is a major key ..how come that favourites in races where there is little consistent form on offer from any horse.. still win at the same frequency as in races where there are lots of 1 & 2's on offer. How does the market MEASURE each horse just as successfully?

To say that consistency is some kind of assistance to predicting the outcome of races surely falls on it's bum in the other races..but the market KNOWS which horse to make fav..how's that done?..it must mean that predicting race outcomes goes a little beyond the simple numbers game that VDW is..and that is all it is.

Racing is far more sophisticated and complicated than the simplistic approach laid out by the Handicap book under the guise of the non existent dutchman.