The Thirteen Factors

Written in response to Epi's request, although I can not say what would be 'vulgar cliche', and what would be definitive VDW

For the ˜Flash-in-th-Pan' system, I don't necessarily use the factors in the way described. I have developed quick ways of doing certain things because of time restraints. Nevertheless, each of the factors is accounted for – there is a 13 factor assessment done before the money is placed.

1. Forecast: Position in the betting forecast.

2. Class: VDW gave an ability rating, but suggested that this should be backed up using two further ratings. This class assessment method is not relied on solely, it must be backed up with other ratings which also indicate that the selection is the ˜class' horse. (I use RPM and have begun to add an assessment based on Topspeed, as recommended by Swish).

3. Class TTO compared with LTO compared with the others in the field. This is NOT the same as point 2. A horse may have better overall class rating. But due to whatever circumstances, has been racing against lower class animals recently. (No good).

4. Days: I look for a horse running within 30 days. (But keep in mind that some horses do go well after a break, so look for what is there in their past form to confirm this).

5. Consistency: You all know what was written by VDW concerning consistency. For my system, I like a horse to have one win and one place, (or better), in its previous three runs. One of those placings should have occurred on its last outing. If beaten LTO, it should be within 2L (flat) or 5L (NH) of the winner.

6. Two Furlongs: VDW says look for horses making a fight of it in the last 1 or 2 furlongs during its last 2 or 3 races. (Usually no problem with this using my consistency assessment, but there are instances where it helps – for example, where the horse won so easily LTO that there was no test).

7. Weight: Weight is a great leveller, he writes. I do not like to see a horse going up by more than 10-12 lbs from LTO. (I use 12 for the system). I do not like to see it giving weight away to horses that have shown recent good form. When I am feeling extra keen, I use the weights LTO and TTO of both horses, in conjunction the with RPMs of both horses to try and ensure they are roughly "level" in weight rises compared to their respective RPM rises from LTO.

8. Going: The horse should have proved somewhere in its history that it can carry the weight in today's class of race and going.

9. Distance: Is the horse proven at today's specific distance (and at the same class).

10. Jockey: I want an in-form Jockey. I want a proven Jockey. The ˜worse' the Jockey is, the better the horse must be (relative to its rivals) to compensate. Racing Post has a wonderful statistics thing on its web site).

11. Trainer: I look for is a trainer that has a reasonable strike rate over the current and previous season. By the other factors, we should already know the trainers intention: he has a fit horse, an in form horse, and a horse that is fancied by the media to have a realistic chance of winning.

12. Race assessment: You have looked at the best races, and have a selection shortlist based on class and consistency. You are happy it can carry the weight and will go on the going. And the Jockeys no mug. I now go through each horse previous three races in the RP to see how they have been performing, and write a little summary on each. At the end of that, it will either confirm my selection(s) for the race, or it will throw up some concerns, which will lead to a no bet race. E.g. the up-to-now sure thing was recently beaten by another contender!

13. Odds: What is ˜value' in your book? Only you can answer. I have a price I don't go below. (I also have been experimenting with a simple way of assessing odds. Not very scientific, and I'm not even sure worthwhile at the moment).

And the fourteenth factor if you like, that I don't use in my system, but would use if I were "doing it properly"...

14. Type of Race: VDW says keep to the best (highest value) races of each meeting, best two at main meeting. Again, I would have to say this is simplistic and for the novice. These are races where the horses would be deemed to all be ˜trying' to win. The other point is that ˜good' horses, consistent types will more likely be found among the better races. So, how low do you go? When putting up a "VDW" race, I think you would have to keep within those parameters the maestro set. But you may consider that any race worth say £10K or £20K or whatever will contain triers among the main protagonists.

Note to Epiglotis: You may say that these factors are available anywhere and everywhere, I don't know. But the point is that I only got them from the booklets, not some place else.

Hope you find this to be of interest.

Regards,

BlackCat

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Corcoran

PD,

A quick look through various accumulated papers only finds 'systematic betting'. However there is more stuff but I cant put my hands on it at the moment. When my wife is here I shall ask her if she knows where the rest of my reading material has gone.

My 'standard' works are on shelves above where my pc is and it follows that only the useful keep their position there.

Back to basics.
VDW is not a Dutch name, no big problem but it would've been easy for the author of the articles to have figured that out. Yet we have a quasi-consistent history of being tortured by the nazis, etc. The author of these articles was so un-au fait as to commit such blunders, why on Earth would anyone expect such an author's post race exemplifers to have any greater veracity??

Black Cat: thanks for posting those. I would say there's none special to VDW and I would particularly draw attention to the stupidity of number 4, the 3:45 at Salisbury yesterday as an example.

JIB,

No problem, just let me know when you've checked. If I know the gaps missing then it may help to reconcile your (IMO) mistaken beliefs. I may even be able to scan and email the odd article to help change your mind

Does it matter? Don't many authors write articles to forums using a pen name? Epiglotis & BlackCat do!

These little books have helped me. And I have demonstrated that on the 'Flash-in-the-Pan' thread. It may not be mega-bucks, but it means a lot to me. So whatever his name / her name / their names are... thanks.

Hi Epi

Each to his own I guess.
One man's stupidity is another cat's 52% strike rate.
Good hunting.

BlackCat

Black Cat: yes it matters. If the author's research of his own psuedonym is so sloppy, why would one not suspect similar sloppiness in his other endeavours?

Black Cat: I take it then that rather than indulge in dialogue re the comparitive virtues of your baker's dozen you'd prefer I **** off. If you dont get the point of yesterday's race I'll happily accomodate you.

To be honest, it doesn't matter to me.

In any case, it may not necessarily be sloppy.
My mate has just spent £500 on a car number plate. To him it's wonderful because it has his initials. But no one else would know!

That name, or the letters in the name may have meant something particular to VDW.

I think that you, JIB and a couple of others have already decided it's of no use to you, and perhaps because you are already successfully betting your way, you can't see what other people see in it.

Just a thought.

BlackCat

Hi Epi

T'was you that used the term 'stupidity'.

I spent time writing that list for you, so you could insult me. Nice.

BlackCat

Day's & Dialogue

Hi Epi

Just to clarify: my comment "To be honest, it doesn't matter to me" referred to the name VDW used - not to your horse's day's example. Thought I'd better make that clear having read back over the last few posts.

Please feel free to let me know your thoughts on the day's aspect using your example. What I would say is that the factors have been used successfully IN COMBINATION with all the other factors.

BlackCat

One of the advantages of living in Japan is that one's interlocutors dont argue merely to be "right", time after time when I find myself pissing in the wind with Brits I thank **** I left long ago.

That's cleared that up then.
Thanks for nothing!



It's OK for you to read my list and describe part of it as stupid, citing one example without further explanation. But it's not ok for me to take umbrage to that comment.

Is it me?

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Black Cat:
I specifically mentioned point 4. If you dont want to look at the race, fine. If you're happy with you're present system, also fine. Generally I'm trying to galvanise the thread, much as Ectoo demonstrated the drawbacks with the consistency rating within the forecast, I'm attempting to show up how VDW statistics apropos days off both miss value and in cases such as yesterday are actively misleading. If you want to wank on like a dog in the manger **** you.

PB,

Well if there was proof needed that I know my VDW then it has come in the form of Lee who agrees with me that Corcoran is a clear VDW selection.

Sweetheart if you should stray a million miles away I'll always be in love with you.
And though someone you've met has taught you to forget I'll always be in love with you.
I cant do any more you know I've tried so hard to please but let me thank you for these tender memories I wish you happiness but as for me I guess I'll always be in love with you.

quote:

Originally posted by john in brasil:
PB,

Well if there was proof needed that I know my VDW then it has come in the form of Lee who agrees with me that Corcoran is a clear VDW selection.

JIB,
I'm in no doubt that Corcoran would be a VDW selection. Personally, I don't think he'd be one to bet for VDW though.

quote:

Originally posted by epiglotis: If you want to wank on like a dog in the manger **** you.

Hi Epi,

"DOG"?! I shall continue to wank on like a cat in the manger. So here goes...

I invited you to: "Please feel free to let me know your thoughts on the day's aspect using your example. What I would say is that the factors have been used successfully IN COMBINATION with all the other factors".

You replied to that invitation by saying: "One of the advantages of living in Japan is that one's interlocutors dont argue merely to be "right", time after time when I find myself pissing in the wind with Brits I thank **** I left long ago".

This is going nowhere. Shall we agree to disagree, or do you want to get the dialogue going on the 'Day's' aspect. Up to you.

Perhaps I need to be a thicker skinned pussy cat to write on message boards! I don't like it if someone says that what I am doing is stupid unless they show me why. If they show me why, and I can see it, I will agree that I am stupid. I have no ego on here. My one year of profit is paultry - so I am not claiming anything other than what I have read in the pamphlets has helped me.

BlackCat