A few random thoughts.........

Most newcomers to VDW are told that they must buy the form books and study all the examples, and often they go on to dissect old races ad nauseum, despite the fact that VDW said the answer, to him, was elementary.
A number of former posters have taken this approach, and still argue that it is the only way forward, yet there is little justification in their conclusions.
Study the evidence from the main supporters of this route:

Guest:
After years of study, finally arrived at the point where he no longer bets in handicaps?
Fulham:
: A Guest disciple, but only bets in handicaps?
Barney:
Another Guest disciple, but he is convinced the answer lays in percentages?
Mtoto
Has spent years on the old examples, and will not hear of the answer being anywhere else but speed figures?
Lee
Another to spend years studying old form books, yet confesses that what he believes to be the answer was found by a stroke of luck?

Five people, who have collectively spent endless time poring over old form books, yet each one has come to a different conclusion?
Does the end really justify the means????

Looking at tomorrow's racing, in the big one,the favourite, ESSEX, is up considerably in class and weight, which would make him a big no-no for most traditionalists. Do you think they are right?
My personal opinion is that he ran a blinding race under the circumstances lto, and the only thing that will stop him is if the drying ground makes it an insufficient test.
In the Aon chase, the form book has it between Celestial Gold and Strong Flow, but will either of them be 'up for it' in a 29k race so near to Cheltenham?
Luck to all.

Black Cat:
Thanks for the link, I'll pass it on to my brother, he's the ailurologist in the family.

Well, time for the Saturday attempt at a VDW type selection in today's big race, which, quite honestly is way beyond my depth.

In my normal racing, speed IS very important, but in this 300 Newbury, I found my candidates way behind on speed figures.

So I've made a botch-up compromise ( totally non VDWesque, of course).

300 Newbury, £72.5K cls A, grd 3 Hcp Hdl, 2m 1/2f.

TAMARINDBLEU
Al Eile
Essex.

That's my order of preference, but, anyone daft enough to bet on these, should dutch and/or place bet.

I've had a crack at the 2.25 Aon Chase at Newbury, and have come up with the strong 5/4 favourite!

CR: CG, SF and R
AR: CG, SF and G
PM: SR, SF and VH
TS: CG, SR and BC
LTO: CG, BC and G

Comments: R (up in class); G & VH (no, days); FJ & BC (out on figures); SF (was inj)

Conclusion:
CG followed home by SR

BlackCat

My selections continue to impress... no one!

CG a close up third.

feb 12, vdw attempt:

Winner
Third
Unplaced.

A profit would have been produced by dutching or place betting.

My order of preference was totally in reverse!

Circus News

As usual no one picked any winners but someone called "beppo" tried to save the day with:

Today at 03:15 PM

Again 3.00 Newbury the Class/form horse wins again, irrespective of the weight.

Who runs that site? They banned me after one day. Now I cant even view the fora.

Hi JIB
"Azertyuiop" was VDWpro's only selection (with Ayr off). He often posts pre-race selections (elsewhere). And although he uses the methods and discusses them, he is not a VDW zealot.

And Epi... Sorry, but you earned those stripes soldier! Does your brother live in West London by any chance? Quite near Chelsea FC's ground? I think I may have met him in January. We had a jolly good discussion about 'old bones'!

BlackCat

Black Cat:
My brother is fairly mobile but I cant think of anywhere near Chelsea's ground that would be a regular den of his.

JiB:
I just wondered if anyone had replied to my posts. Rather unsporting of them to not leave me 'read only' status.

EpiG,

Let me know which forum and what name and I will send them on to you if they havent been deleted.

Thanks. The name was pfiesteria. Posts were on "did any one know VDW?" and, I think, "selections". There's a search by poster facility.

pfiesteria

Registered: 09/02/05
Posts: 11 10/02/05 at 06:49 PM

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Percentage-wise, VDW took two things into consdideration, strike rate by "form" figures and strike rate by LTO SP.

garstonf

Registered: 21/12/04
Posts: 14 11/02/05 at 12:11 AM

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David

From my evaluations last season.

NH 2003/04 Chases only. (119 races)

Pos lto to win %

1 – 17%

2 – 13%

3 – 9%

4 – 12%

5 – 9%

6 – 7%

7 – 2%

8 – 0%

9 – 0%

0 – 3%

B – 25%

C – 0%

F – 15%

P – 8%

R – 0%

S – 0%

U – 10%



Top on ability – 15%

Top on ability which won lto – 18%

Top on ability with cons rating of 3 – 43% (3 wins from 7 races)


david

Registered: 02/01/05
Posts: 160 11/02/05 at 11:20 AM

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garstonf,thank you much appreciated. David


irish

Registered: 15/12/04
Posts: 149 11/02/05 at 11:49 AM

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David, were the calculators of any use, LUCK.


david

Registered: 02/01/05
Posts: 160 11/02/05 at 02:52 PM

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Hi. Irish nice to see you back,hope you enjoyed your break.Not recieved anything as yet maybe got lost in cyberspace.Regards David

From what I could gather it seemed that T Peach didn't even know VDW face to face. I feel that nobody did.

There seemed to be a lot of wriggling when awkward questions were asked, with T Peach being " unavailable" or " unfamiliar with message board procedure" at the crucial time.

Still, they are a well-mannered bunch who seem happy with what they do.

Rude

pfiesteria

Registered: 09/02/05
Posts: 11 10/02/05 at 07:54 PM

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God you idiots are thick.


Author Comment
Webmaster



Moderator
Registered: 04/11/04
Posts: 33 10/02/05 at 08:24 PM

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This post is being put onto a number of threads so as to ensure it is read by those who it may concern.

Hi All - I view this forum rather like a public house and I am the land land. Or like my lounge at home where I welcome many people. In both cases the people are allowed in because I am happy for them to be there. I may not agree with their beliefs or the views that they express but, they are welcome to them as are all of us.

Nevertheless, anyone who comes into this forum will not get another opportunity to insult a fellow member once I have seen their first missive.

Today, however, was an exception. Due to the fact that this web site does not afford me a living, I need to go out and work at a proper job occasionally. Hence the fact that I wasn't around to prevent a repetition of the first insult after it was posted. For this tardiness I apologise to all members. All I can say is that I have intervened at the earliest opportunity available to me.

That said, I hope that this incident will be viewed as no more than the kind of thing that VDW had to endure through many of the years he wrote for the Handicap Book. I equally hope that you treat them with the same tolerance and view them as he did - 'as water off a duck's back.'

My final comment on this matter is -

Ladies and gentlemen. pfiesteria has left the building!




__________________
Regards

The Webmaster
webmaster@vdw-collection.co.uk
http://www.vdw-collection.co.uk



features

Registered: 20/12/04
Posts: 30 10/02/05 at 09:23 PM

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Hi Ahoy et al.

Most of us are still fishing in the dark but VDW offered a light for the future.

I have read vividly what was written on the old handicap book and the present books shown on this site.

I have taken the salient points, well noted by many on this site.

With the use of technology Patternform, Racing Post, Superform and Massey web sites I am seeing the water a little clearer.

I have just spent 3 hours gathering the data tonight and have attempted to lay 4 horses which are shown in the RP f/c as paper favorites.

These horses do not conform to the principals of VDW and therefore may not win.

This then often leaves a horse in the same race at a much better price, I call it value.

I have often got caught by improving horses so am particular aware of young horses.

I hope this helps


__________________
Tim

hedgehog

Registered: 23/12/04
Posts: 41 11/02/05 at 02:37 PM

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Hello All,



Oldtimer, Ahoy - Thank you for the kind words. I suppose I had to get it right sometime.



All the best

hedgehog


__________________
All the best
hedgehog

You got the same webmaster post when doubting the worth of AlanB!

But it got you banned because it ends:

My final comment on this matter is -

Ladies and gentlemen. pfiesteria has left the building!

Okay. Thanks.

Jib
Therein lies a story, which I shall relate anon.

JIB

You didn't mention my welcoming post to pfiesteria

quote:

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pfiesteria

Registered: 09/02/05
Posts: 11 09/02/05 at 05:29 PM

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I know him. Give me a couple of days and I'll ask if he minds me posting his e-mail addy.

imp

Registered: 08/01/05
Posts: 35

Edit | Delete 09/02/05 at 05:38 PM

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Welcome 'pfiesteria'.



Interesting monicker.




Quote:
There are at least four things we'd like scientists to tell us about pfiesteria: (1) What is it and what is it doing in our waters? (2) Is it a menace to public health--to swimmers, boaters, and fisherman? (3) What areas are prone to pfiesteria? and (4) How is the pfiesteria problem related to water quality in North Carolina estuaries?



Quote from....



http://http://www.unc.edu/depts/cmse/science/pfiesteria.html

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