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Interestingly enough Almizan is a very late withdrawal at Goodwood.
Is it raining hard? or has Channon heard something about one of the others? Anybody have a weather update? |
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Although I won't be betting today, I thought it might be appropriate to bring back a post I made here on May 9th.
The 4.10 at Haydock looks an interesting placement today  |
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SL site shows the going at Goodwood is Good,G/S in places..so it's good/soft
 ACE OF HEARTS is very interesting PB I really like S SANDERS record on the horse when the going is in it's favour ie Good/Firm+. most recent at the bottom WON 11/4 4TH 7TH 2ND WON 9/2 WON 3/1 WON 11/8 The horse is just 1lb higher than it's last win..so well handicapped and in the context of the others..top RPR. Another interesting pointer ..this may help in running..when they hold this horse up it means they aren't serious..if it is near the leaders from the start then they are trying. |
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PB,
Should be in the winners enclosure today. Why aren't you backing it? |
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I fancy a FTO 2yo today at Newmarket.
In the 1.50 race Neither Channon nor Noseda do well with 2yo in these Newmarket maidens at this time of year. Channon has never had a winner and that has included 3 beaten fav's. The interesting one is Hannon's SWEET BOULANGERE. His record in May 2yo maidens at headquarters is good over a long period but over the last few seasons he as sent 7 2yo to contest maidens here and 4 of them have won. Intent is there..the horse is also bred to be winning as a 2yo in this month, the sire offspring show superb profit in May and a high strike rate 5/14 +116 ROI. Intent + breeding ..against the other market leaders who don't have the same qualifications. Showing at 18.5 on betfair which is the only negative..worth chancing methinks. |
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Lee,
Whilst I expect Ace to win today there are several reasons why I won't be backing it. Consistency is one (although we have to go back to his defeat of Calcutta at Ponte since he last had his 'ideal' of 8f on top of the ground) but primarily it's a question of form. Did Ace of Hearts show form last time? Personally I find it harder to judge these types who are noted making a run at their preferred distance. It's easier to do that sometimes than it is at the real business end after the furlong pole. Horses like Ace of Hearts and Almizan today, who I think will win but are not solid bets would be profitable for me long term but they don't suit my temperament. I don't cope with losing runs very well and tend to lose confidence in my judgement and capabilities. For that reason I prefer to wait for what I perceive are more solid opportunities. |
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Ectoo,
This is becoming interesting now. I've mentioned 2 horses that I like today from my understanding of VDW. You seem to agree with both horses and like them yourself...........but you don't rate VDW's methods  Coincidence  |
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PB,
Re: Ace Of Hearts at Haydock I also looked at it, but came up with some negatives that I don't like going against. The stable's current form is 0/0/10 last 14d, plus the stable is 0/13 with 4yo+ at Haydock. Added to that, Sanders who I like as a jockey, is a dismal 0/21 on 4yo+ at Haydock. I wouldn't back against it, but with those duck eggs I couldn't really go for it either. Oldtimer |
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yes PB
hannons is 30.0 on BF now..not good..had a bit though |
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that must be a decent 2yo of Channons
dropped out the stalls..raced on the outside and still beat a decent field of maidens. |
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A very rushed ans messy effort for Almizan's race.
1) This is not the correct VDW race, imo. 2) I'm taking it that the going is soft. Rough VDW attempt: Belle Rouge 8 gdc Moonshine Deal 8g Darn Good 7. Almizan would have been rejected anyway by me, bc the last win was more than a year ago. Of these three, I'd back DARN GOOD EW, if forced. |
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PB
The horse concerned was Texas Gold, 3.50G, though I no longer see him as a bet on the rain softened ground. Had it remained g/f he would have been a solid VDw bet in my view, which obviously differs to yours. |
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John,
No I wouldn't have considered Texas Gold a bet today. His last run was an improvement in higher class but to me he still hasn't shown 'form', it was still a long way below what he was achieving back end of last year. Apart from that I would have thought he would need 6f these days, particularly at a track like Goodwood. I must confess though, my area of speciality is decent 1 mile and above handicaps and I don't bother with the sprints, a failing on my part I'm sure as I find it difficult to keep track of draw advantages on differing going and some courses penchant for moving the stalls at a whim  It's quite likely that you'll have a better handle than me on the sprinters if you play those races a lot. |
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Ectoo
You patently cannot see the difference between respect and 'drooling'. Lee has earned that respect, not given lightly, by demonstrating his understanding of VDW, and helping others to comprehend with a number of useful pointers and a few examples. All done in a calm and collected manner, with none of the self congratulation which separates the wannabees from the actual achievers,and none of the rancour or histrionics that you have deluged this thread, (and others), with since your arrival. There is much to be learned from VDW, and consequently from this thread; how much is entirely down to the individual, in both cases. |
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what you are saying JohnD is
I'm a bit too lively for the normal british reserve and snobbery..good. I haven't crowed about getting the guineas double up John, I think you would never have shut about it though if Lee had posted them. No point in arguing is there really? You have your views and I have mine..I assume Lee did select Ace Of Hearts today with the comment he made to PB. I also backed it, so it's hard luck all round. |
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Well, my rough and rushed attempt at VDW selection was absolutely uselesss today.
I could make the excuse that I didn't think it the correct race for this type of methodology, but that doesn't take away the fact that my picks were diabolical! Didn't see any racing today, as I haven't got RUK, but suffice it to say, that I've only just managed to get out of jail with Folga in the last. And no, I didn't have a bet in that "Almizan race". My own free-style selections didn't quite do it for me today, that's all. No complaints, no blame. Tomorrow's another day. |
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BlackCat,
I did ask where you were some time ago now. I think we 're all missing Investor, if truth be told. Anyway, welcome back to the stormy teacup! Lesson learnt ( by me, anyway): Don't try VDW in races worth less than £10K !! |
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I think I read somewhere that Investor would be Computerless for a while
I think he has won some money and is now upgrading his 286 computer to a 386 |
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Sean And a valuable lesson it is too!  |
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What the hell's that, Boozer?
Is it a cross between a 303 and a fkn bazooka? You can easily see that I'm not wonderfully au fait with modern technology. Btw, did Epi's selection win? Never heard a dickie bird. |
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