I can give a number of reasons why it is trying to win and is capable of winning.

There is ONE major factor though that signifies it's worth a bet.

You must have missed this though.

Lee,
Good to see you back on the forum,have been away myself for a while.

It would be good to get the forum going again,but where do we start.

I am of the opinion that Rebel Rebel is a lay in the Irish 2000 Guineas on Saturday,interested in anyones views.

quote:

It would be good to get the forum going again,but where do we start.

an answer to the question why ALMIZAN won't win ..from Lee..could be a good starting place.

I hope it isn't going to be the..I know..you don't game..it makes me



when that goes off

Come on boys, open up a little, weel aw be deed soon enough & bets no bets an the like willnae matter anymore .

well said Walter


When Lee tells us why it's not a bet, I'll put up why I think it is, then people can make up their own mind whether they bet it or not..or just ignore the pair of us.

Otherwise we are just playing games..which is twenty five steps backwards again.

Yes, PB, I'd say your approach is fair enough.
In fact, that would be my way, basically.

Ie.,first, select target races ( I do this as a result of what I've found best suits my punting) .

Then, if it's the type of race where the numbers game is applicable, I give it the spin.
To be perfectly frank, I tend to act when the figures seem to back up my existing prejudices ( likes and dislikes).

For instance, if one of Stoute's is in the running for top-rated, I'm very likely to back it, but, say it's R Hills on a short-priced favourite, then I'll tend to give it a swerve.

Just to throw in a few names, I actually like this list;
Tucker, Abbielou, Alfaaril, Dubai Venture.

Obviously, few, if any, of them could be subjected to the old numerical mullarkey.

Finally, yes, like most of us, I'd go along with your "Trainer's Intent" ideas.
However, I'm not convinced that this is essentially a VDW concept, for there's none study this aspect of racing more than our own JIB, and he's an arch-enemy of most things VDW!!

ps I'd like to know the negatives re your candidate, too. 'Twould save an awful lot of wasted study, if those that know it's unlikely to win, could find a way to help us all see the problem as well.

Myself, I'll have to wait for the Racing Post before I could comment on it.

Walter

It looks like we are game playing again.

This is one of the main problems here PB.

"it won't win..I won't say why though"

a rather pointless way to use a messageboard and the only beneficiary is the ego of the guessmaster.

Almizan is not a consistent horse, however, is coming from a higher class race than todays. VDW gave, in the form of Roushayd, further instructions in order to cope with seemingly inconsistent types, which was an extension of his original letters.

If one is able to compare the likes of Dovedon Hero, Dickie Deadeye, and Dr Sharp, to the likes of Billet, Merce Cunningham, and First Division, then the answer as to why Almizan is NOT be a VDW selection should be as clear as day.

EC – why then is Almizan a VDW selection?

PS. EC, thanks for the last post - sums you up.

OK, Let's take a look at the numerical pictures for Almizan's race.

CONSISTENCY
3 lowest from forecast area
Belle Rouge / Sindapour / Hathlen
5 lowest from field
Belle Rouge / Moonshine Beach / Jonanaud / Sindapour / Turtle Soup

Almizan doesn't figure in the consistency ratings then.

ABILITY
Top 4 from field
Archduke Ferdinand / Sindapour / Random Quest Establishment.

Almizan doesn't figure here either.

LAST RACE CLASS
(Starting with those with a run)
Almizan 135 - 3rd btn 1.5l
Incursion 96 - 9th btn 11l
Theatre 75 - 7th btn 15l
Darn Good 75 - 9th btn 18l

Definite positive for Almizan there but there a couple from higher class last time having their first run of the season, Sindapour & Archduke Ferdinand.

RATINGS SUPPORT
Top rated Postmark
3rd rated Topspeed

OVERALL
The last time Almizan showed improvement in higher class then dropped in class to win was at Chester last season when he could finish only 3rd beaten just over a length by Dr Sharp. That was class 70 race (identical to today) but he was carrying a full stone more than he's got today.

I think Almizan is the most likely winner here but not a bet for me given his poor consistency rating and a slight doubt about the form from the last run, ideally I'd like to see how Dovedon Hero fares today but that race goes off 10 minutes after this one. I will on occasions veer away from the consistency ratings if I consider the horse to be consistent in it's own right but this isn't the case here.

Lee,
Your last post crossed with mine. It looks like on this occasion we are in agreement.

Lee
Good to see you back in all your glory; original user name and all.
Would I be correct in thinking there is a bet Friday, in the race of the day, the 3.50 Newmarket?

Ectoo
You are seriously out of your depth, whether you know it or not!.

quote:

PS. EC, thanks for the last post - sums you up.

no pal

it sums YOU up very accurately..you are at it again with the your last post

then the answer as to why Almizan is NOT be a VDW selection should be as clear as day.

That isn't an answer, it just shows you haven't a real reason.

As far as putting butter on the bread ..I've posted more CLEAR angles on threads on this board than you've had hot dinners. I don't do "pretend" like you seem to.

You might be able to bluff your way with some of these guys but I won't be buying it until you give reasons. Personally I don't want to know why you think it won't win..you have enough horses running for you so it's not really clever saying it won't win anyway.

I read you have helped people on here..if thats their idea of help above then it's just more back patting when it isn't earned.

People like Sean deserve better than what you and a few others do here..they are eager to learn..they won't do that by reading cryptic messages. He posts regularly on here and keeps it going. If you don't want to help such as Sean then is it your ego you are preening because cryptic posts like above aid no one but you.

Of course I might be wrong here,you might state WHY it won't win and try and help people who put more effort in that it deserves here.

It's supposed to be a forum for sharing ideas..not playing 20 questions and getting no answers.

I'll just add..I don't give a fig why you think it won't win..mainly because I don't think you know yourself.

There's something majorly strange about this attitude of kidology.

JOHND

seriously out of my depth...oh please

when he starts posting winners i'll take stock..posting up a loser in a 5/1 fav race won't be impressing many.

in fact ..whatever

Sean..you really are wasting your time here with some of these fantasists

John D,

I can assure you there is no VDW bet in the 3.50 at Newmarket.

Nor in the 3.50 at Goodwood for that matter

Don't be shy though, give us your selection

quote:

As far as putting butter on the bread ..I've posted more CLEAR angles on threads on this board than you've had hot dinners. I don't do "pretend" like you seem to.

Correct me if I'm wrong but I'm pretty sure that I've put up more selections on this thread (I don't post on others) than you – All winners as well? Correct me if I'm wrong though.

quote:

You might be able to bluff your way with some of these guys but I won't be buying it until you give reasons. Personally I don't want to know why you think it won't win..you have enough horses running for you so it's not really clever saying it won't win anyway.

Another example of non-comprehension; please quote where I said that it won't/can't win?

quote:

People like Sean deserve better than what you and a few others do here..they are eager to learn..they won't do that by reading cryptic messages. He posts regularly on here and keeps it going. If you don't want to help such as Sean then is it your ego you are preening because cryptic posts like above aid no one but you.

Cryptic posts – it appears that you are unable to differentiate between ˜won't win', and ˜shouldn't be backed'. It is understandable therefore that you find my posts cryptic.

If I were you I'd seriously think about dusting of your lens filters and taking off to the country.

JohnD,

I take it you are talking about Goodwood?

All winners and no losers, very good, where are they? How many selections? Well done. What profit did they make?

I can see you are a superior being Lee..I can always tell when someone is, they come across as arrogant & patronising.

Basically you seem like JohnD, are you a clone of him?

Ok then Lee, I'll keep reading the thread and won't get involved, if you are as good as drooling JohnD says I'll be the first to congratulate you.

Right,where's me lens filter?

quote:

Correct me if I'm wrong but I'm pretty sure that I've put up more selections on this thread (I don't post on others) than you – All winners as well? Correct me if I'm wrong though.

Lee

There are 58 pages on this thread and not one selection by yourself.

There are references to what I assume is the 600 odd thread where you put some winners up, but one of them..16/1 was aftertimed..not my words..just what I read here.

So I can't really see why JohnD is drooling. I put up both guineas winners but for some reason they are forgotten and yet you SEEM to have put a very SMALL amount of selections up..one aftertimed and appear to be a legend on here.

I don't expect past winners to be mentioned but if people keep harping on about some selections you put up then I'll puff me little chest too

I can't see much point in that... the past is past, this game is very heavily biased towards the future and what you are going to do.

So can someone PLEASE explain how Lee is the genius that drooling John appears to suggest. I am sure if Lee had put both guineas winners up we would never have heard the last of it.

When people say to me..oooh careful you are out of your depth..then the person who is going to put me ..out of my depth..better be able to post winners BEFORE the race. Reputation built on myth don't impress me.

There is only one person on messageboards that I think everyone is ..out of their depth with..thats LAZY EXCUSE..that guy is f ing genius. On another planet to anything I've read here or anywhere else to be honest.

So Lee, you look on the face of it to be a hot air merchant

I hope you can show that I have that wrong.

off to take some pictures ..honest

The 3:50 at Goodwood doesn't look to me like a wonderfully sensible race for a bet, nevertheless I'll be backing Night Prospector.

EC,

Below is pretty much what went on. I decided over a period, which would have been longer than turned out, to give my thoughts on racing from a VDW perspective. I could understand why the knockers were knocking and, although I knew deep down how it would end, I went ahead.

What should be taken in to account is the fact that what you see below are the only horses that I commented on the forum in this period. These weren't the only horses that I backed during the period, and of course, not all the horses that I backed won. But I wanted to mention only the very best. I think there may be one other horse that I mentioned which lost – but I'm pretty sure I didn't back it – can't find it though.

Byron is the horse that was after-timed – I couldn't care less if that upsets people – it didn't upset me.

8 July

Epi,

These Condition races are ones to treat with caution - like the 7.55 they often have small fields and short priced favs. I think Fruhlingssturm is interesting and could be a danger. But for me these are races to leave alone.

Fruhlingssturm won @ 9/2 beating the 5/6F – not backed.

July 19

JohnD,

The 3.45 may well be a poor race for consistency; however, I think Top Dirham is worth looking at from a Roushayd point of view.

I'd fully expect kalaman to take the Scottish Derby.

Top Dirham won @ 3/1 (backed at 7/2 on bf)
Kalaman won @ 5/6 (backed at just above)

Reply's

Lee,

V nice tipping. Well done!

Thanxs Lee, I liked the look of Top Dirham, and was confident after reading your post.

Lee
Have only just seen your post. Did look at Top Dirham, but didn't have the confidence to back it. You obviously did though, and he won well. Nice one, and thanks for the input.
If you had a look at the last at Ayr, you will probably have picked up on the 'interesting' placing of the winner. Didn't have a bet, but his win wasn't the surprise his price suggested.

Posted 21 July

JohnD,

This is an interesting little race in which I think Peter Paul Rubens is the most likely winner, but not a back.

I'm not a stats person, but do have a look for really strong trends, and this race fits that bill. In the last 10 years the favourite has won 8 times! With the 3rd favourite taking the other 2. Cole has taken the race twice and so has Hannon, with Terry Mills taking it last year.

Peter Paul Rubens won @ 15/8 – not backed

Posted 22 July

John,

I have Stretton ˜out of it' and this looks another opportunity for the likely short priced favourite, but it won't be carrying my money.

A nice colt who only ran once as a 2yo over 7f, and it says a lot that he didn't make the winners enclosure during his maiden runs.

Stretton finished 4th of 6 2nd favourite. The short priced fav was pipped at the post.

Posted 22 July

Mine's a large one. (this was a cryptic selection posted just before the off)

Double Vodka won @ 3/1 – backed at around 9/2 on bf

Posted 29 July

Tunkie,

My idea of the winner in the 5.35 is Lochbuie. In the 3.50 nothing stands out, perhaps Lucayan Ledgend, but there are plenty of negatives, of which the draw is just one.

I have backed Darasim for the Goodwood Cup.

Lochbuie won @ 7/2 – backed at around that price.
Darasim won @ 11/8 – backed at just under 2/1 bf.

Replys:

Lee,
Spot on

Lee,

V Impressive. Well done!

Lee - well done !

On this forum we welcome pre race postings - and we acknowledge them !

Even better when they include a few "reasons" !!

And that is where it finished. The knockers were still knocking! Why didn't I post my reasons for selecting the horses I did, and it is easy to pick favourites etc. etc, were the remarks I got. My aim has always been to try and confirm to those who are interested that there is something in the letters and articles that were written 30 odd years ago. To those who really aren't interested – I couldn't give a damn.

If you post winners before the race Lee you won't ever get that sort of comment from me I can assure you. they seem fair enough to me.

Although, I would have to question JohnD's "impressed" threshold..if he is drooling over those he must have orgasm's when he sees someone like LAZY EXCUSE hammering 25/1 winners out.

All i would like to see is people putting up selections, saying they are VDW selections. I would also like to know that people like Sean are being helped..by email if people don't want to put stuff on the board.

I apologise if I have jumped the gun but I tend to judge people on results, not other people's fawning adorations based on what is actually a small amount of actual selections.

Carry on with it, lets get some winners

Hi all

I've been away - did you miss me?!

Hi Lee

I remember "Mines a large one" (Double Vodka) as I'd been looking at the form of that race just before you posted, and had to smile when you put that up.

BlackCat