quote:

Kew Green will take in the listed Wulfrun stakes at Royal York.

: JohnD



"Whilst the numerical pictures are a vital ingredient they have to be tempered with an appreciation of the trainers intent.

Spanish Don today was a case in point to me. ": PB


Now this is where I get fkd: Could we not say, equally, that Kew Green was being prepared for this thing at York?
Or do we just say that when a selection gets beat?

Btw, I realise that doubts about Spanish were expressed BEFORE the race.

What I don't see is why one is being prepared and another is not. Or is he/ was he?

Whatever, it's good old Wolver for me tomorrow!

This message has been edited. Last edited by: Seanrua,

Rab,

That one in the Hcp at Wolver may be worth looking at.

Piston Broke:
Could you give the number of handicaps unsuccessfully contested by each horse subsequent to winning the Cambridgeshire, otherwise it's difficult to assess the value of the statistic.

Epiglotis,

I'll try and post up that information later but it's freely available on the RP website if you want to check.

Why do you think it's difficult to assess the statistic without this information? Even if no horse had attempted it and the statistic was 0/0 in the last 10 years, it would be meaningful that no trainer had attempted to win another handicap after winning the Cambridgeshire.

Seanrua,

The only way to do it is to try and put yourself in the mind of the trainer and ask yourself why the horse is placed here. It's not always easy but like most things it becomes easier with practice.

My assessment of Spanish Don went along the lines of. Won the cambridgeshire and Elsworth then put him into a level weight contest to win again. Why level weights? the handicapper has now caught up with him. Next into an AW level weight event. He's seeing if the horse acts on the AW because he (or the owner) is considering sending the horse to America. Why is he back in a handicap today then? The prize money is worth winning, even the placed money and he's put over a C&D he's proven on so he's not there to run a 'bad one' or he would have gone elsewhere. Elsworth has already shown us he sees level weight listed races as the way forward with this horse so he's nothing to lose by suffering another weights rise by the handicapper. A sensible placement really, upside is he might pick up some decent prize money, no real downside as he might come on a little for the run and it doesn't matter if we bugger up the handicap any more.

With Kew Green I would be asking the same question, why this race? The horse is fit and in good form and proven he's capable of winning a £29,000 race with 8 stone 8lbs. 9/10f seems to be his trip. So, he now running for a big prize (bigger than he won last time in the Roseberry)with only 2lb more over his optimum trip. Looks like he's here to win.

Contrast that with Ace of Hearts in the same race. He won a sequence of 4 handicaps in May last year up to £12,000 and off a mark of 86. Every single one of those wins came over a mile. His handicap mark went up to 91 after his final win last season. So we know that ideally Ace of Hearts wants a mile handicap off a mark of around 86. For his first run this season the handicapper has dropped him to 89 but what does Chris Wall do, runs him over the wrong trip of 7f, why? to sharpen him up a bit and induce a bit of speeed. Handicapper then drops him another 2lb to 87 after his run over the wrong trip, lovely jubbly we are getting there now. What does the trainer do next, he enters him up in Saturdays race but at 1f more than the 8f he needs. Why? it's obvious he's not ready yet so the trainer isn't going for it. Run in higher class, over a furlong too far, that will help his stamina and bring him on a bit more and who knows we may even get another 1lb out of the handicapper after it. Ace of Hearts 'showed' in Saturdays race when making headway 1f out. I'd say Ace of Hearts was just about ready now and it will be interesting to see what Chris Wall does next. If he drops in class over a mile, maybe over a course he's run well before then it will tell it's own story. Anything else then maybe the trainer wants another run or another 1lb or 2 off before going for the payday.

You don't always get it right but with practice you get more right than wrong

This message has been edited. Last edited by: Piston Broke,

Aye Sean,Keeping an eye on the market

Thank you Piston Broke

At last - a VDWr prepared to get off his pedistal and try to explain his thought processes

Van Der Wheil Ratings

6.50 WINDSOR Monday 9th MAY

GOING-GOOD TO FIRM

DRAW ADVANTAGE NONE

6.50 Listed Palm Beach Casino Stakes Registered As The Royal Windsor Stakescolts & Geldings (1 )   1m67y   3yo+       £28000        6  Declared

Form	Draw	Horse/CD/Preferred Going	Trainer/Form W/D/R	Days Last Ran	Form Rating	Ability	Postmark	Formcast	F/C Price	Position In F/c
32/-0	2	TASHKANDI S	1/0/6 SBin Suroor	65	15	102	125	64	7/2	2
560-	4	BLATANT D S	1/0/6 S Bin Suroor	226	21	145	111	56	16/1	6
0-16	3	PENTECOST D GS	1/4/29 A Balding	16	17	219	126	77	9/2	3
44-4	1	FORT DIGNITY G	8/6/30 Sir M Stoute	26	12	37	126	78	11/8	1
223-	5	TAKE A BOW C/D D S	0/1/4 P Chamings	191	7	70	123	76	5/1	4
550-	6	SHOT TO FAME D GS	2/2/9 W Swinburn	220	20	155	118	70	8/1	5

  PUTRA PEKAN 6-9-7 M A Jarvis 5/4 P Robinson 4 ran (Royal Windsor Stks)

GUMMY'S VERDICT

1. PENTECOST

Pentecost is a definite bet.

Gummy,

Pentecost does look like he's placed here to win and it won't be a surprise if he manages it.

Again though, not one I'd want to bet. Too many doubts for me, a suspicion he'd like softer ground and the presence of Fort Dignity & Take A Bow.

Take a bow is interesting given the recent discussions on Spanish Don as he was only beaten a neck, conceding 2lb by Spanish Don in the very Cambridgeshire we've been discusssing. Spanish Don has since proven himself at Listed class and I would expect Take A Bow to do likewise and given his record when fresh tonight may be the day.

Fort Dignity is a little more difficult to assess. He quite obviously went wrong in the Glasgow Stakes last season but made a very encouraging comeback in the Sefton. On a line through Hurricane Alan there is not much between him and Pentecost but there is a suspicion there is more to come from Stoute's runner.

Is Fort Dignity placed here to win or does Stoute have even bigger plans? As those bigger plans would probably include Group events then a listed penalty wouldn't inconvenience him too much and after missing most of last season then the owners of Fort Dignity (Britton House Stud) would probably like some black type ASAP.

A lot of ifs & buts in the race so not one I'll be playing in.

Good luck with Pentecost.

Epiglotis,

Cambridgeshire winners record in handicaps last 10 years.

04 - Spanish Don 0/0 (now 0/1)
03 - Chivalry 0/2
02 - Beauchamp Pilot 0/0
01 - I Cried For You 0/7
00 - Katy Nowaitee 0/1
99 - She's Our Mare 0/5
98 - Lear Spear 0/0
97 - Pasternak 0/6
96 - Clifton Fox 1/1
95 - Cap Juluca 0/0

Total - 1/20

Hello PB,
I must admit that the going is a bit of a worry but at 9/2 Pentecost looks a better bet than Fort Dignity.

650W,

You have to look at the trainers in a 6 runner race like this one. Doing that here its hard to get away from Stoute.

Lto Fort Dignity ran v well on his seasonal debut without being given a serious seeing to. TS rated that 4th at 105 which is looks rather good under the circumstances. There is obviously much more to come.

Having said that I would want more than the current 5/4.

Piston Broke: thanks.

Pentecost doesn't look aimed at this race to me. Balding doesn't target races here with his older horses, 1/31, and at least 9 of those were 1st or 2nd fav. The jockey doesn't inspire with his track craft either, 4/102.

On top of that seems to need juice in the ground.

TAKE A BOW is the value play in this imho.

He won nicely at Thirsk first time out, ran well in a Group 2 at Sandown after that, and seems competitive at this level. He's in good form and were hoping for a decent run. This is his trip and I don't think the ground will bother him much.
Andrew Balding on Pentecost.

I'm pleased with his preperation, he seems very well and he's a course and distance winner. The ground will be perfect and he seems to have a decent chance on form. It's his first race of the season, though, so I'll be happy if he runs well and picks up some prize money.
Patrick Chamings on Take A Bow

P&B,

I must say it's a pleasure to read your posts, and see someone who really thinks about the race. Many seem to think there must be a bet just because it is running in the highest class race of the day/meeting. Worse still there must be a bet if they have taken the trouble to look at the race and there is a horse that seems to fulfil the basic requirements.

I agree with your thinking on Spanish Don, as far as his outing on the a/weather. If he had won or run well I think he would have been off to america. However I can't see how his future is in listed or group races. I can't see how he can be expected to win in this class if he can't give weight and a beating to inferior horses in handicaps. On my figures I make him a very lucky winner of a top handicap, at best I make him a top class C horse. While winning the Cambridgeshire may have blown his mark in as much as he now can't run in his class. I can't see that a mark of 100 should rule him out of winning another handicap if he really is good enough, which I doubt.

The thing I want to ask you about is the ability rating, why do you think it is a good guide to class? SD wins a £75,000 race to the winner, his ranking goes up in line with this. Take A Bow is 2nd beaten a neck, and his rating stays the same, where's the logic in that? It is said the ability rating shows a horses will to win again now? TAB has a 30% strike rate compared to SD's 24%, yes, SD has won more races but he has had more chances. Do you use the a/rating in the same way most do, or in some other way? I have asked this question many times of others, the only reason I ask is I can't see how it does what it says on the tin. I think it was one of VDW's cross checks used to replace a rating he wasn't prepared to explain. I was happy to accept it as something that worked in a bygone age, before they started giving money to inferior horses in the way of sponsorship. The thing that puzzles me is why so many of these horses mirror my top on ability (now) when I work in a completely different way. I work in the way I think VDW did when he gave his first few (10/20) examples, the ones that usual have the top rated on ability well down the rankings. PK, Baronet, Rifle Brigade, etc.

What method do you use to confirm the trainer intent? The trainer may well be out to win a certain race, how do you know he isn't tilting at windmills?

Be Lucky

Mtoto,

A lot to answer there

If we take Spanish Don firstly, I said I think his future is in level weight listed events, I didn't neccesarily say he would be winning them, an important distinction. How can you say he can't be expected to win in this class though when he won a level weight (turf) listed race at the last time of asking (29/10/04)!!!!!

You ask an interesting question about the ability rating and I've never said it was the best guide to class, in fact I said in one of my posts that it was only a rating and should be used like all ratings, as a guide. My personal opinion, which I don't wish to elaborate on at this stage is that the ability rating wasn't used as most seem to be trying to use it.

As far as trainers intent goes, then of course some will be tilting at windmills. A study of the class and form of the contenders together with that trainers success rate will soon show those though.

"Many seem to think there must be a bet just because it is running in the highest class race of the day/meeting. Worse still there must be a bet if they have taken the trouble to look at the race and there is a horse that seems to fulfil the basic requirements."

Mtoto,

I cannot see what is wrong with Gummys' initiative of first citing the race of the day then examining it.

Profit margin cannot be examined on its own, you have to consider turnover too.

The way most vdwers have it then the methods cant find a winner in even 10% of the races that VDW said were to be examined.

The ultracautious might have thought Spanish Don to have been a debatable win bet @ 7/1. But I took the option of a place only bet and got 7/4 the night before which I regarded as a gift and even better value than the win only bet.

This message has been edited. Last edited by: john in brasil,

P&B,

I accept SD did win a listed race, but how many are that weak? A very clever bit of placement on the part of the trainer, but it could take another season, or two, to find another one.

You say you look at the class & form to gauge trainer intent. That is always a good idea, but does this a/rating give a useful guide? If SD and TAB meet again what does it show you? Isn't the aim of using an a/rating to show who is the best, even if it is only a guide it should do it's job? As it stands SD is a far better horse than TAB using that rating, (I think, haven't checked)

Be Lucky

quote:

Originally posted by Seanrua:

quote:

Kew Green will take in the listed Wulfrun stakes at Royal York.

: JohnD



"Whilst the numerical pictures are a vital ingredient they have to be tempered with an appreciation of the trainers intent.

Spanish Don today was a case in point to me. ": PB


Now this is where I get fkd: Could we not say, equally, that Kew Green was being prepared for this thing at York?
Or do we just say that when a selection gets beat?

Btw, I realise that doubts about Spanish were expressed BEFORE the race.

What I don't see is why one is being prepared and another is not. Or is he/ was he?

Whatever, it's good old Wolver for me tomorrow!

Sean
A few points:
Firstly, the race I mistakenly called the Wulfrun is actually the Wolferton Stakes.
Kew Green undoubtedly had this as his objective before Saturday's race, but the trainer knew what he had, and a win then would not prejudice his chances in any way for the Listed race.
However, the horse is better with some give in the ground, hence his trainer's statement that he would not run unless there was sufficient overnight rain, and his further entry in a similar h'cap at York this week. That he got the rain, and won the race, is a matter of record, that he is an improving and well handicapped horse at the top of his form also goes without saying, so were so many of VDW's selections, and it is not uncommon for this type of horse to win a number of races on the way to their ultimate target. Just one of the reasons why VDW suggested we keep to the higher value races.
Doubts about Spanish Don's fitness were expressed before the race, yet there was never really any doubt that he would be up for this prize if looked at correctly.
Similarly with his previous run at Lingfield; the horse was never going to be suited by a race over the sharpest 10f in the country, add that to the fact that he probably only ran to keep him on the boil for his hoped for invitation to Hong Kong in December, and that form could be quickly dismissed as a nonentity.
I have said it many times before, and I will say it again, it is little use finding the best horse in the race unless you can figure out what the trainer is up to, a point VDW covered in some depth, yet, almost to a man, the 'experts' rarely/never take into consideration.
As I have advised both you and Pitmatic recently, there are ways to fathom this without the sizeable investment necessary to purchase all the old form books, but it stil needs work.
No snobbishness, no degree course, no super-human intellect: as the man said, just cold unemotional logic! (Which, judged by some of the posts on here and elsewhere, should keep it safe for another few years ).