Ectoo,

Breath of fresh air - thank you.

How goes it with the German Shepherd (I can't spell Alsation)?

hello Nofinepix

not sure about the alsation bit

Investor, don't be away too long

quote:

it is so much more accurate to rate a horse by the opposition it has beat as in OHR strength of race.

Ectoo,
You have been around the game long enough though to know that it's only accurate to rate a horse by the opposition (OHR) when the opposition has been placed to win.

In my mythical £40,000 Pisshead Brewery Handicap Chase at Newton Abbot, you can bet your arse there were plenty of triers primed to win.

Can you be sure the same can be said of a listed event featuring Gold Cup horses having their final prep before Cheltenham?

OHR's can be just as flattering as £'s if it's a field full of non or half triers.

One of the problems with VDW is people focus too much on the mechanical procedures. Whilst the numerical pictures are a vital ingredient they have to be tempered with an appreciation of the trainers intent.

Spanish Don today was a case in point to me. Why did Elsworth run him on the AW at Lingfield last time? And where do people think he would have gone next if he'd been succesful? On the face of it people will say Spanish Don failed today. I bet the owner doesn't think so after picking up another £13,000. He's only failed in the eyes of the punters who have backed him to win. I'd say it was another fine piece of training by David Elsworth but as much use as a chocolate fireguard to those who'd backed him to win.

quote:

Originally posted by Seanrua:

I've only just bothered to look it up, but, it so happens that, in today's race, the shit about last three form figs, and first six in the betting, worked out fairly well.

Oddly enough, ignoring conditions races, it also worked out in the other 2 most valuable races of the day, viz Iffraaj and Coat Of Honour.
Even more strange is the calibre of horses these type of races attract: Iffraaj now goes for the Wokingham and has a gp1 entry, Coat Of Honour is being aimed at the Ebor, and Kew Green will take in the listed Wulfrun stakes at Royal York.
Only 2 of the races were run last year, won by Mac's Joy and Mine, who both turned out to be right dogs, didn't they.
Crap this VDW, innit?

PB,

If the £ won is a better guide to ability than the average OR of the beaten horses what are we to make of the place money it has also won?

The horses beaten can fairly easily seen to be "trying" by reading the race result.

Handicaps have become rich because of their commercial value as a spectacle and source of debate.

Listed races have far less prizemoney but as they open the way to the vastly valuable breeding market anyone with a very good horse will generally spurn the immediate recompense of hcps for the chance of future and longer lasting fortune. Either that or they take up NH racing where even Gold Cup winners have had their tackle removed.

.

Sorry Ectoo.

Got you confused with someone else - it's not difficult to confuse me.

JohnD,

Thank you. I do believe they were genuinely trying to help me, but.... well hardly a great advert.

I will try and rate the best races at York next week.
It takes up about 3 hours of my time but at the moment it is worth it and the hard work is paying off,will it continue I just don't know but I can think of worse ways to break down a race.
I have shown on this thread that the methods of VDW does work now and again and instead of some members after timing with his methods let's start having solid selections using his methods.
Over to you Investor.

John In Brazil,

At the end of the day, with the exception of the gambling stables and those racing purely for breeding purposes, the name of the game is to win as much prize money as possible. £13,000 for 2nd place in a sponsored handicap is better than £9,000 for winning another handicap. We only want those placed to win though for betting purposes.

A lot of trainers (David Elsworth included) though are very adept at winning a valuable handicap before getting black type. Once you win a big flat handicap though, you often don't have a choice. For illustration, and just to show what Spanish Don was up against today, let's look at the Cambridgeshire.

2004 - Spanish Don - Flat handicaps wons since 0
2003 - Chivalry - Flat handicaps won since 0
2002 - Beauchamp Pilot - Flat handicaps won since 0
2001 - I Cried For You - Flat handicaps won since 0
2000 - Katie Nowaitee - Flat handicaps won since 0
1999 - She's Our Mare - Flat handicaps won since 0
1998 - Lear Spear - Flat handicaps won since 0
1997 - Pasternak - Flat handicaps won since 0
1996 - Clifton Fox - Flat handicaps won since 1
1995 - Cap Juluca - Flat handicaps won since 0

Not pretty reading

Partly because the handicapper clobbers them but mainly because you often need an underexposed horse that's group race class to win them in the first place. Once they have won their big handicap, they can show their true colours in level weight events.

(There is a slight exception to this with sprinters but that's for a separate discussion).

It's interesting that when VDW first introduced the ability rating he said 'With minor modifications this method of rating can be used for flat racing' With the longer career of the NH horses the vagaries of an inflated win are often ironed out within the large number of career wins but the same isn't true of young flat horses and I think VDW ackowledged that when introducing speed based ratings for these horses. The ability rating is just a rating and as VDW said, to be used only as a guide.

PB
You appear to have missed the point somewhat re Spanish Don.
In each of the past 2 seasons he has needed 3 races to reach peak fitness, yet there was no sign of his 'needing a run' today when the prize was big enough, which speaks volumes, not only about D Elsworth's intentions, but also about the influence of prize money on a trainer's thinking.
He didn't win today, yet, despite a troubled passage, he would have been the clear victor with Kew Green out of the way, which strongly suggests, to me anyway, that today was 'the plan'.

Gummy
Look forward to you putting up the bigger races from York,it could create a fair amount of interest.
Would advise that you steer clear of most of the conditions races, though, if you intend to stick to VDW principles.
Roll on York, the beginning of the flat season proper.

Ectoo
You and Investor are truly birds of a feather!
Both inveterate attention seekers, you pop in and out of here like an effing cuckoo clock, ( A most appropriate analogy ), one pro???, the other anti, rarely saying anything useful, but always the first to slag off others, especially after the result is known.
One has a million approaches to VDW, which he changes as often as his underwear, the other likewise but without VDW; like lost souls you wander from board to board, stirring up shit as you go, in the hope that one day you may find a method that will give you the success you feel the world owes you.
However, this forum was here before you came, and despite your best efforts, it will survive after you have gone.
There are very good reasons for its longevity, but neither of you, given your present states of mind, are likely to find them.
Personally, I will soldier on regardless!

JohnD



you bore me

EC

Do you know much about the owner Nigel shields?

Cheers Rab

Rab,

I expect EC does know quite a bit about N Shields.

I myself know that he's got lots of horses and he generally gets a good-priced winner out of them.

This is the AW I'm talking about. When I see his white and green colours with certain trainer/jockey combos, I get very interested, punting -wise.

My mate can check him out on Flatstats, if you have a specific enquiry.

only what the RP database has about him Rab?

is he of interest?

Ectoo, PB and All,

I think we can make use of Winprizemoney/wins AND OR.

That's what I try to do.

These are only TWO factors out of maybe FIFTEEN that we should consider.

Nobody looksat "Trainer Intent" and "OR" more than JIB.

I'm a lucky independent and I look at everybody's ideas ( if I can understand them) and pick and choose to suit myself.

So, I AM one of those few, Ectoo, who wants to learn.
The worrying thing is, that I seem to be using VDW with every bit as much success as the experts.

Picking and choosing? Yes, why not? I've got to, when no fcker is gonna tell me the " missing link", ie how you make the thing work.

Too lazy to spend years reading the old formbooks. You bet I am!

The point of education is that all the knowledge of others that's been found over the years is distilled into a time-saving, easily -assimilated form, so that learners can be brought up to speed as efficiently as possible.

We can find out for ourselves far easier without getting bogged down in the bullshit and mystery stuff.

If anyone knows better, I'm all ears!

I noticed how well he did last year regarding profit to level stakes,
He had 36 wins from 200 rides and 69 points profit,
What im trying to find out if he works with the trainers to place his horses,And guess what he has a horse laid out for a good run,In the 1.40 Lingfield yesterday I had 3 marked down at big prices from owners with high profits,Shields had Moyad 2nd 33/1

John D,

If you think Spanish Don was 'expected' today by David Elsworth then I honestly feel that you need to go back to the drawing board regarding VDW & trainers intent. The fact that you focused on Spanish Don suggests you are thinking on the right lines from the numerical pictures but you need to take more notice of what the bus driver is telling you.

David Elsworth has done the job with Spanish Don as far as handicaps are concerned. Why do you think he was tried on the AW? Don't you think he would have been USA bound had he been succesful?

David Elsworth knows full well that he's unlikely to win another handicap with Spanish Don, after all only one Cambridgeshire winner in the last 10 years has achieved that.

There is now nothing to hide with Spanish Don and he can go for valuable handicaps in the hope of picking up some worthwhile PLACED prize money but he will invariably come across one that's been laid out for the prize. Great for connections but not for us punters.

I guess we will have to agree to differ on this one, you obviously think he would have been a bet for VDW whereas I'm adamant he wouldn't have been.

I think following what David Elsworth does with Spanish Don this year will prove beneficial. I'm willing to take even money that his future is in non handicaps though

quote:

We can find out for ourselves far easier without getting bogged down in the bullshit and mystery stuff.

Spot on, Seanrua.

There is a certain 'snobbishness' about many VDW'ers that suggest it's 'pure VDW' or nothing.

The articles were written in such a way that people could choose (as I and many others have done) to spend countless hours with old form books to unravel the factors that tie everything together or they could choose to adapt elements of it to improve their own betting.

I'm sure VDW would have said if certain parts of it help then more power to your elbow.

Never forget that after the first few letters everything VDW wrote was commissioned by Tony Peach with Tony Peach suggesting the subjects.

To some VDW is a numbers exercise and to others it's a masterclass on how to read the formbook. To the vast majority it falls somewhere between the two.

Rab,
re N Shields - owner.

N Littmoden was one of his main trainers at one time.

Where any trainer he's using has a 20% strike rate at the course, he's good.

On Turf in Summer and Autumn,
he's good in Scotland ( except Musselburgh) and the English Midlands.

Sprints, good to soft, 2yo colts and older geldings,
Sellers, claimers and Amateur races

are his sort of thing.

He seems to be one of the few owners who does well at Leicester.

On the AW, he does very well, but not with favs.
Here you want his male animals again, but no sprints. he does well at 10f.

Don't bother at all in Spring.

Thanks very much Sean

Last year he had 3 winners in May,5 June,5 july

You must be right about no bets in the spring as some of his that look place to win run bad,So maybe these have been prep runs for the summer