Hard luck with that one Gummy, ran well

Caught a tartar there, a horse that looked an unlikely runner this morning. Pity

Piston Broke
How many listed races are worth 34k.
D Elsworth obviously thought it worth getting horse fit for. Prize money does matter!

Still had the winner in his 3 though which is good going .

shall we all post up 3 in future?

seems easier somehow

good cover bet Gummy

Just shows what a prat of a punter I am!

The two I picked from my shorlist were nice EW proftable bets, but the one I rejected ( actually top-rated) was the nice winner!

Dutching IS the way for us, till we do get something less non-comittal from the VDW experts:

ie. how we decide on the winner from our shortlist.

I guess that's the " missing link" that they're never gonna tell us.
Perhaps, most of them don't even know it themselves. 'Tis easy enough for any one of us to come on and say, " no fkn bet".
That won't buy Investor a new dress!

The way Gummy is going boys maybe the way to go is the 3-two-1 (Three Chances To Win).
A minimum price of 5/2 is needed for the shortest priced runner.

This method is one that VDW suggested for someone who could not work out what to select from the 3 most consistent and showed that there is always a way round a problem.

The idea is to call the 3 form horses A,B and C.
Split them into two separate bets (A being the lowest priced).

First bet A+B; Second bet B+C.
Stake 2pts on A and 1pt on B for the first bet.
1pt on each of Band C for the second bet.

Each of the two bets are kept SEPARATE and applied to a STAKING method.

If A or C wins, that particular series wins.
If B wins, then both series wins.

why don't we just back all the 6 runners in EVERY six horse race dutched?

Too big an outlay, Ectoo, I'm sure you'll agree.

Dutching 3 decent priced contenders can pay.

Btw, I was at Chester yesterday and wasn't too impressed by Gypsy. This was despite Fallon nearly taking the nose off me - I was leaning over the rail looking at the arse-ends of the leading bunch when he flashed by real wide and got up!

Good turn of foot, but I'm happy that thing has gone false fav to take attention away from my selections.

I forgot to say, I think Walter's plan could work alright.

i may have been joking

John D

Of couse prize money is important, irrespective of if the horse is placed to win. Overall, it's still the best guide to class and as such is the most common way of bringing a horse on. If the trainer considers a horse is badly handicapped though then it will almost always be a prep for another event whatever the prize money.

IMO David Elsworth was 'trying' with the horse today because he thought it wouldn't make much difference in the long run. This horses future will be in level weight listed events (quite possibly abroad) and a further increase in the handicap mark wouldn't really matter in the short term.

"...... and some fell on stoney ground"

Piston

waste of time talking to this one

he thinks the grand national winner is a better horse than the gold cup winner

coz the race is worth more money

I felt sure you were joking, Ectoo!

Dutching has to be the way for punters like me to use THIS type of selection methodology.

If we'd dutched all the selections put up by Gummy, on here, over the last week, I think we'd have made a decent enough profit, even though we might not know anything about that " winner IN the race, OF the race" stuff.

I've only just bothered to look it up, but, it so happens that, in today's race, the shit about last three form figs, and first six in the betting, worked out fairly well.

Also,the prize money thing gave the first three home.
I understand your point about the GN and the Gold Cup. Perhaps, they are exceptional races that we can safely disregard for practical purposes, when we're fkn about with this sort of methodology?

you can add a few more races where £'s don't represent ability..in fact 100's over the last 5 years..handicaps worth more £ than listed races..the listed races have horses rated 95 + winning..the handicap winners with more £ value might only be rated 75.

if you are happy to rate a 75 horse higher than a 100 horse it's your choice of course..but I think I'd be asking myself a few questions..wouldn't feel right etc

Ectoo,

Whilst I agree you can't automatically say a winner of a higher prize is better class without further investigation, I think to some extent you are missing the point.

I accept gambling owners/stables do things differently, as do the wannabee breeders in flat races.......

.... BUT, let's say I'm the new trainer of your horse Ectoo's Boy. I'm pleased to tell you Mr Ectoo that I've cured the back problem your previous trainer failed to recognize and your chaser is raring to go. I've put him up against the best of my 3 mile chasers at home and he's flying.

I'm pleased to tell you I think he's a stone cold certainty next time he runs but we may only get one chance before the handicapper catches on. There is a nice listed race at Cheltenham next week worth £15,000, if we enter he'll win. Alternatively if we wait a week there is a sponsored class C handicap at Newton Abbot where Pissheads Brewery has put up a £40,000 prize. He would be a certainty for this.

Please advise by return which race you'd like to enter Ectoo's Boy.

no I didn't miss your point

I know where you are coming from.

when my horse has won the £40k race though and it next runs in a listed it will probably have a higher £ rating than most of the horses it runs against..in fact it will have a £ rating that suggests it can beat Group 3 horses when it has earnt the rating against a lot easier oppostion.

£ doesn't fairly represent a horses ability if the money earnt was in an inflated for class race or races.

it is so much more accurate to rate a horse by the opposition it has beat as in OHR strength of race.

i don't need to keep mentioning this because if i proved conclusively that rating a horse by ohr beaten rather than £ WAS the best way..those that believe in the scrolls wouldn't have it.

they still believe that 3 X 111 horses in a race win 99%..and that 4 of em win 132%

if people believe stuff like that "because VDW says" then it's bods for getting anything else across.

hardly anyone on this forum wants to expand their knowledge..they know it all because VDW told em..the fact he never existed and most of it is inaccurate is by the way..VDW SAID IT..IT MUST BE TRUE.

Piston broke(i hope your not)
You alerted them to a no go horse and hopefully some would have taken heed.

Jib
Spanish Don and Kadarran.Look at the vdw pointers thread on the other forum.One day your blowpipe will be made out of bamboo but at the moment it is most defintely a straw.Class is kingpin,and always will be.

aye aye

NONinvestor is here with words of afterwisdom



Class is kingpin,and always will be.

what a statement..means bugger all..even to him..but he thinks it looks good ahhh bless

what a fount of knowledge the NONinvestor is

still one of the best characters on the boards though

Ectoo
Good evening,I'm glad you think i'm entertaining.i also enjoy your babblings on,Unfortunately as from monday my p.c will be going off for a while but i will tune in asap.So for the time being i wish you LUCK with your betting but i hope that temperement will always be in the back of your mind.Ta ta for now.