Hello Investor,
Any comments on the race that I rated today would be helpful.
Will you be giving any ratings or selections at Chester on Thursday before the races are run?

I am at the moment working on the 3.00 and I will put up the ratings in the morning.

on that other board a guy called old timer reveiwed the chester cup..never gave anak pekan a mention???

He`s a good guy ec been on here for donkeys, likes to post his views & does away fine m8.

ectoo

neither did MATHEMATICIAN -
Chester 2.30 - totesport Chester Cup (Class 2) (4yo+) 2m2½f

5/1 Coconut Beach, 11/2 Swift Sailor, 13/2 Dr Sharp, 10/1 Larkwing, 12/1 Balyan, Big Moment, Land ´n Stars, Unleash, 14/1 Anak Pekan,
Cold Turkey, Contact Dancer, 20/1 High Point, 25/1 Distant Prospect, 33/1 King Revo, Mana D´Argent, Romany Prince, 40/1 Copeland,
50/1 Tees Components

This year we have to Powerful stables with strongly fancied runners that had only had 3 previous races. Aidan O Brien trains COCONUT
BEACH and Mark Johnston trains SWIFT SAILOR . No horse with less than 7 career starts have won this race so in terms of inexperience
both these has mammoth tasks today despite their superb connections who are just the type to bust stats like this wide open. That said the
fact remains that the job they have to do with just 3 starts behind them must be a very tall order. COCONUT BEACH were he trained by
anyone else would be a huge price . Yes he has Fallon, a good draw and will like the ground but surely he cant be any value. Would he even
be running if O'Brien wasnt sending over Gypsy King for the Dee Stakes ? This horse was 14/1 last week but the moment O'Brien won the
Guineas he was slashed to 7/1 solely on that fact. He may win but he cant be value for me and he has achieved far less than every past
winner of this race. SWIFT SAILOR is the same and coming from a Musselburgh handicap where the 2nd 3rd and 4th were all beaten next
time out doesnt smack of Chester Cup winning form. I dont like him at his price and he is a Slip Anchor and I have always felt they were no
good in big field races. Obviously massive respect given to both connections but their prices make no appeal bearing in mind their chance.
BALYAN also gets rejected with 3 career starts. ANAK PEKAN Won last years race. I dont fancy him this year. Last year he had a prep
race, a good draw and was 13lbs lower in the weights. He lacks a race this year and all 3 of these combined factors should get him beat.
Horses with his weight have poor records in this race anyway. CONTRACT DANCER is a seasonal debutant and could be betterdrawn in
stall 11 . He was due to run in this race last year for John Dunlop but he pulled out on fast ground. Seriously upgraded in Stable he may be
worth a chance to shine but its worrying how weak he has been in the betting all week . LARKWING 12/1 is interesting but He has failed to
do what every past winner had done before in winning over 2 miles and I would rather have a horse that had "been there and done it".
COLD TURKEY 14/1 comes from one of the best trial races but with the track an unknown consideration, the trip unproven and a Career
high mark he isnt for me. BIG MOMENT 12/1 was 2nd in 2002 and 3rd in 2003 (would have been second) . Last year BIG MOMENT was
trained for Cheltenham and this race was an afterthought. I didnt fancy him last year because of that factor and his high draw but this year
he has bypassed the Cheltenham Festival and has a better draw (stall 9) . He has a stiff task but he loves this place and wont disgrace
himself and I cant find anything wrong with his chance statistically. He is one of the best 4 horses statistically in this race. The other 3 are
DR SHARP 13/2 , LAND ´N STARS 16/1 and UNLEASH at 12/1 . Overall I would side with DR SHARP but this isnt a race for me as the
race involves so much luck in running and it isnt too predictable .



Comments ???

ECTOO

Anak Pekan not consistent- runs twice at Chester
in the same race and wins on both occasions - you cant be more consistent than that.

Roughyed

Ectoo,

I don't understand, if recent form figures are absolute bollocks then why do horses with form figures 111 win a higher percentage of races than horses with 000? Surely if it's completely meaningless then both 111's and 000's should win a similar amount given a large enough database.

Horses with 111 win more than those with 333 who in turn win more than those with 000. Are you saying this is a statistical fluke?

Of course they are meaningless on their own but so are most factors when taken in isolation.

Many moons ago you were quite fond of what were called 'form breakers'. These basically were horses with very consistent form figures given their individual unique circumstances. When placed in the right circumstances you knew the trainer was 'really out to win' and all this was deduced from 'CONSISTENT FORM FIGURES' as a starting point.

Are you starting to see any similarities yet

I still feel that the win prize money over number of wins can be more useful than last three form figs in these races for older animals.

Does Course and Distance show a sort of consistency? I think it may.

This put Anak Pekan ahead of my selection ( and JIB's), Contact Dancer.

Now if somebody could kindly explain why the Guineas were races where it wouldn't work, perhaps we'll start to get somewhere.

At the moment, I can only think that

a) age of runners
b) length of race

may have a bearing.

Ectoo,

You list consistent horses and say where did they figure in the Chester Cup? Why do you think any of these consistent horse had the ABILITY to win this race? Of the horses you listed on my figures Big Moment comes out best, and that is not good enough to win it. Yes, consistency is important but only when the horse has the other requirements. You don't seem to be able to grasp it is ONE of the attributes looked for, not the ONLY one.

You have pushed market position, and trainer stats, where do they figure in this result? You criticise Investor when he points out a consistent horse has won a race, aren't you doing the exact opposite, and pointing out when an inconsistent horse wins? One is just as bad as the other. If you selected Anak Peken fair play to you, but DID you post it up?

Gummy had it in his short list but did he select it, or even suggest it should be part of a book? It was in my short list but was rejected because on lack of consistency, because of this I don't/can't see it as a VDW selection. The short answer there wasn't a VDW selection in the race. What do we do then, you just take the piss oh another no bet race?

[if these people were more for discussion than pushing silly form figures]

I'm all for discussion, and I have tried to answer ALL your questions and statements about silly form figures, and other things. Did VDW say anything about trainers using horse to compress the handicap, did VDW use breeding stats, etc. Consistent horse are not worth backing as they are over backed, I have tried to answer these questions. What is the response, a list of 6 consistent horses with no regard to are they consistent FORM horses?

I'm slowly beginning to think Investor is right, it's a waste of time.

quote:

Of course they are meaningless on their own but so are most factors when taken in isolation.

try telling investor that..his habit of posting up horses with sexy figures after they have won is one of the most annoying features of this forum...he never mentions any reason why they are VDW selections EXCEPT that they are consistent...ONLY

it's not the form figures that make horses win..it's the fact they are ready to win on the day..same as Anak pekan today.

Roughyed..no..you are now not looking at the last 3 figures as is SET IN STONE by vdwers..you have actually just read the form with a wider perspective.

You will be viewed as a "progressive" on here if you carry on like that..you will be drummed out of the VDW club and viewed as a lesser mortal for shying away from the scrolls.

This message has been edited. Last edited by: ectoo,

i'm sorry Mtoto

but i am just doing what Investor does..isn't it f ing annoying??

now you know how a few of us feel.

i can post up stupidity like investor does until the cows come home

he started it though..you haven't seemed to mind much when he does it though.

it's his silliness that brings out the worst in others.

i'm not answering any more questions on this form figures shite..it's boring..it's pointless..and basically really sad.

You,Investor and JohnD can carry on..I'm real bored with the same old rubbish..it's ok for a laugh but I am questioning what the point of all this is..can't see any..same pantomime everyday..f all said before races..unless it's dragged out..then investor normally just say no selection..then if the winner has low form figures investor comes on and say "see..consistent horses win races"

i'm bored less

I'll take Nova Tor to place in the 300C.

To be honest I think this is a race where the draw overules a lot of otherwise important considerations, so here I am supporting a horse that wlto!

I don't understand, if recent form figures are absolute bollocks

Ectoo,

I have posted the above to show it isn't just Investor who thinks this is what you and JIB think. Piston Broke thinks that is what you are saying as well. You say he, Investor started it, but I think you will find he only started in response to statements like this. I have tried to explain the role form figures play in VDW they are a starting point.

Once you have rated a race do you not concentrate on the top 2?If Gummy backed it fair play to him but the fact is it was 2nd rated

Jib
Email was sent before i seen your post on Nova tor

Ectoo

Consistent form is important, as a starting point, for a VDW evaluation.
Boozer, from his neutral corner, has given some indication as to why, ratified by Mtoto's figures, and I also gave some of the reasoning to Jib recently.
Rather than follow up any of these to check their validity, you choose to confine yourself to groundless attacks supported by questionable research, as is your norm.
As with most other things in life, consistency won't work if you don't want it to!

Hello Rab,
Because all the top rated horses were very good odds I backed the top 4 but that is not to say I would do that every time.

Ratings for the 3.00 at Chester are here
http://www.bettingboots.org/van_der.htm

Going on the last run ive got Beckermet Jt2nd rated,My choice,

Both of these to improve- Our fugitive (top rated) and Westbrook blue jt2nd

As u all know i know very little of vdw

As the odds on the top 3 rated are currently 9/2 4/1 and 9/1 I will be betting on all 3 with the smallest stake on Our Fugitive.
Bond City looks to have a lot going for it, likes the ground, the distance should act on the course and a good draw and the stables horses are running well so that would be where my biggest bet goes.

Not just because I'm an awkward bastrd,but because I feel it's ther right race for VDW ( value and older animals with more "form"),

I've rated the 1.30 Chester, with my version of VDW methodology.

As I'm in an awful hurry, here are my top placings:

CHANCELLOR 56 +D
SOLSKJAER 52 +D
MARAAHEL 46

D means Distance winner. No course winners in the race.

I haven't looked at last 3 formfigs or bothered about price forecast.

My own selection - before I did this test - was

Maraahel - mainly bc I like old Stoute.

Must dash!

G,

The first thing I did was draw a line through those drawn 8 (Our Fugitive), 9, and 10.

Apparently if those drawn 1, 2, and 3 are smartly away then the others will have to run considerably faster than them to get in front and get the rail.

Nova Tor isnt the fastest horse in the race but from stall 1 is good enough to be a bloody nuisance to the others!

I got 9/4 the place last night.