Right down the pan with my arsehole's attempt at VDW-like selection today.

Thank fk I backed both the o'brien's last night. I think at this early time of the season VDW doesn't work as well as, say, JIB's ideas about stables and targets.

A wonderful winner and well done to Ectoo!

The potential horse to take from the race is, of course, ORATORIO - the selection of both Mtoto and myself.
This stablemate of the winner was not helped by the ride he was given and still managed to beat Dubawi ( his mission) and just stay out of the frame.
So a good day for Ballydoyle. Is Oratorio entered for the Derby? I'll be on EW if he is, as all he needs is distance and to be "off" for his target.

My place bets were also poor today, so mythical losses are compounded by an actual minor loss on the day for this lazy arsehole of a punter!

Still, I'm not bitter; I've seen hype, and I've seen potential.

This season's Kinane/Stoute partnership looks very promising too. I differ from Mtoto here in that I do take a lot of heed of jockey/trainer combos.

So a nice long summer to look forward to for us all.

Has anyone heard from TC recently?

Please note that ectoo's selection based on VDW won and was given before the race was run.
I note that nobody on this thread except Seanreau and Investor has praised him for giving a selection before the race was run based on VDW'S methods.
From now on anyone who does not post a selection for a race based on VDW'S methods before it is run will have their message deleted and will be yellow carded.
Either put up a definite selection based on the methods of VDW or shut up.
By all means discuss VDW and his method but any selections must be posted before the race is run and not after.
Investor it would be nice with all your hard study if you could also give selections based on VDW's methods before a race is run.

This message has been edited. Last edited by: Gummy,

Gummy,

Am I missing something here? Ectoo has all along argued that VDW is a waste of time and it doesn't work, Why then do you think he has changed his mind, and started to use VDW. When I pointed out his selection did have 2 of the attributes VDW looked for the reply was, but most of the runners are consistent they also have 4 legs..which is something I look for as well. Which I thought was quite amusing, but hardly confirming any change of opinion about VDW. In fact I got the feeling he thought it was a bit of an insult to suggest there was any VDW thinking behind the selection

While I agree about the use of pre posting and also find the after timing annoying. Does this mean no recent races can be discussed, unless the poster has given a selection in the race? Personally I welcome the idea of deleting selections on this thread that are not VDW based, more than a few have no semblance of VDW thinking. However does that mean any posting that isn't about VDW or in some way connected with the subject will also be deleted, I hope so.

I also think you will find I did congratulate Ectoo on his win. I think Ectoo is good for this thread, he asks questions and tries to show it is outdated and a big scam. I don't agree with him, but at least it has started to get the thread moving.

Be Lucky

I think Mtoto did respond to Ectoo's posts re the great win of Footsteps, Gummy.

Yes, what has become of TC and the the other Cat?

I hope you're a good judge of the VDW criteria as few of us on here ( learners like me and the Experts)ever seem to agree on much!

On the other hand, it is remarkable how much agreement there is about the shortlists, whenever we get them posted, so I suppose a shrewd cookie - good at dutching - could make good use of this " exciting/excitable" thread.

ps You must have got onto your tenth pint when you described Ectoo's good selection as VDW- based. I bet he's not too chuffed about that description!

Gummy

You might be being a little hard on people there, Mtoto & Investor amongst others were very kind after the race to me.

I didn't use any VDW methods to pick the winner though.

Just to encourage discussion though I will go through what I did to choose that horse.


I discounted DUBAWI because I think he needs further.

I discounted all the horses which ran in the Craven because of the sectional time analysis of a chap called Prufrock on another forum...that was superb analysis by the way and is worthy of praise.

The winner was very interesting because it's form was on slow ground and it's breeding and trainer comment both supported even better performance on faster ground. The sire has only a small amount of data but the sires sire STORM CAT produces horses that thrive on fast ground.

Thats it basically.

I do think post race discussion is needed..but not the "it was obviously a VDW winner" type when no firm conclusion was arrived at before the race.

That is why I have pushed for people to give CLEAR selections. The only way forward is to write down analysis before a race..study it afterwards..then over time the worthy and non worthy pre race data can be sifted through to see which bits are relevant and which bits aren't.

This message has been edited. Last edited by: ectoo,

quote:

Originally posted by Gummy:

I note that nobody on this thread except Seanreau and Investor has praised him for giving a selection before the race was run .

Gummy you left me out

I'll have a bash at the 1000 Guneas this morning, though , as I said yesterday, I'm not convinced that VDW would have been betting in this race where most of the form is at 2yo and NOT over the mile.

From what I've read in the pamphlets, VDW said he went off on exotic holidays at this time of year ( well, April, anyway).
Make of that what you will; I doubt it's the "key" or the "missing link".

Right, using the old win-prize-money routine, we get a messy picture. Few leaders have C and D.

So, a rotten short-list:

Satin Kiss
Cape Columbine
Maids Causeway
Virginia Waters
Karens Caper
Penkenna Princess

I suppose with proper " Temperament" the VDW thing to do would be to say " no bet".

I'll press on regardless.
After looking at RPR and TS, I pick

MAIDS CAUSEWAY
Karens Caper.

Btw, my own, actual bets are the two of Stoute's, but I've done a place only bet on MC too.

Ectoo
Prior to racing yesterday i e.mailed my friend (who does achieve the figures that vdw said was possible)and asked him if Dubawi could possibly be opposed.Unfortunately he's in a position ehre he has to take care of somebody and can't always get back to me.He did say (post race )that Dubawi could have been opposed and was layed and a multiple wager was made with 2 horses including the winner.I am summising that the other horse was oratorio.I personally couldn't have layed Dubawi with any kind of confidence.But from what he is saying i feel your bet yesterday was more in line with vdw than you think.

Hi JIB

Glad you are back after your weight reduction exercise.

I have simply been a bit quiet of late cos I have been reluctant to disrupt the recent postings on this thread, which in the main have been positive.

If things go a bit quiet, then I think that I will cut and past some of the writings that I sent you, plus a few more. I think that they are very VDW related. Do you agree ?

- he did by the way point to Footstepsinthesand before the race ! (Fallons booking was the decider)

tc

I cant see anything less than half a dozen winners in the gns too, well done to anyone who picks the winner of it!

In the 245Nmkt I' ve dutched Gamut (winner last year with similar opposition, this year) and Bandari (who has won more difficult races here at this dist and who has had a recent run).

I got prices last night that work out at 15/8.

I would say Karens caper has done well this year and will take all the beating,
Small ew on Favourita

VIRGINIA WATERSfor me



Investor

i doubt very much if even one aspect of how I picked it has anything to do with VDW.

Sire stats? when did VDW use those?

1000 Guineas

Anyone who bets big in this race, wants his head looking at

My two contributions to the Bookys Benevolant Fund are -

Shanghai Lilly and Maids Causeway

tc

Jib
I'm not going to aftertime so don't worry on that score.you said that bandari had raced / won against better opposition but he had been dropped lto and it really was not a good performance from a form point of view.it's very difficult with first time outers as we all know and i was a little miffed that Millenary was pulled,But like they say,You pays your money you takes your chance.

it's got to be maid's causeway for me , and one at a bigger price pictavia.

not having a bet personally so good luck to anyone that is.

Ectoo Again

Very well done EC