PB,

"I can't see the point of coming back to crow about winners you've backed but not posted beforehand."

" started to study the methods in real depth a year or two ago and once I'd found the hidden factor(s) then ALL the selections he gave conformed to pattern. A lot of people have put untold hours in trying to unravel the methods and the main reason they are just as profitable today is because they have stayed out of the public domain and nobody is going to change that."

As you can make the methods profitable, and would obviously hate to be thought a hypocrit, perhaps you would be prepared to substantiate your claims by putting a few up before the off.

If you are worried by the price being ruined by doing so (? ), post one minute before the off.

There is a vast playing field on this forum for the first vdwer to show consistent profit....

no play then Investor..ok..are any races a play beforehand?..thats a serious question.

just to add

if the field splits in the guineas..the draw will be in favour of those drawn high..as when Hawk Wing got beat...this will also be against Dubawi..I hope they don't split mesen..but high will be fav if they do

The draw stats clearly point to high draws winning and placing more than their share on good or faster in big fields.

Investor,

I think Oratorio ran good race against the best middle distance horse around at that time. So good in fact that it was seen fit to buy this horse and being a little cynical it was bought to stop it running in this Guineas. I do think D will be better over a longer distance, and I think they know it. Your posting reads as if you think O should have won his last race, what is that based on? Why is there doubt about him being a form horse, he ran against a very good horse ran well beating other good horses? I think he ran his best ever race and you wonder if it is a form horse. The only doubt (the question that can't be answered until after the race) is will he be fit enough to do the job. If he is lazy at home how can anyone answer that question with any certainty, all they can do is take an educated guess?

Be Lucky

Mtoto
I also have Dubawi as the clear c/f horse, and, with everything else in his favour,he should win like the good thing he is.

Ectoo
Either you are interested in VDW, in which case post something constructive, or you aren't, which begs the question; why are you here at all?

Jd,

You tell me that I am wrong about consistency then tell me Ballast, form figs 60 (both at the dist), will win the 430T.

quote:

Ectoo
Either you are interested in VDW, in which case post something constructive, or you aren't, which begs the question; why are you here at all?

to get people like you to post CLEAR pre race selections

now that you have, we might get somewhere.

are you not worried about the draw if the field splits?
are you not worried that Dubawi may need further

Dubawi was the best figure 2yo on my speed figures last year..but.. i think he wants 10f..which means he may well struggle here and in the Derby.

Mtoto
i have no qualms about Shamardal being a good horse.And after a long season it was a good performance that O put up against S.I have seen this scenario many times before and i have doubts in my mind.This is one of the reasons i left Tartouche the other week.I was wrong to do so on that occasion.You may well be right and i can see where your coming from with Oratorio.But i can't confidently rule out Dubawi,His form is rock solid from a vdw perspective With Oratorio having to be respected but i have my doubts about that last run.Hence i am not prepared to put money down.There have been far more clear cut races this week and there will be many more to come over the coming months.I hope the horse wins for you at a nice price aswell but i personally don't see it as a vdw good thing.The horse as a lot of plus points but then again so does Dubawi.

John In Brasil,

Why would I be seen as a hypocrite? I've already said in my post I've no wish to post selections beforehand. Equally, I won't be coming back on to crow about 'winners' after the event.

As far as I'm concerned it's up to everybody to decide for themselves if there is merit in the methods. Everybody has access to the same things I did, VDW's letters and the form books, they are free to form their own conclusions just as they are about Timeform's ratings or any other selection method. It makes not a jot of difference to me who uses what method to show a profit.

The only possible reason for me to post VDW selections before the off would be so I can puff my chest after saying look how good I am I've no interest in doing that.

If you read my post properly then you will see I said I had no problem with people not posting selections beforehand. Only with people coming back on later to 'claim' winners they never posted. As far as I'm concerned if you don't post them up beforehand then you keep your mouth shut after the event.

I take a slightly different line with ectoo because we are 'old friends' and I would like him to see the merits of VDW.

You have confused me Investor

you were saying that it's what a horse beats..not the bare value of the race.

Dubawi beat a mdn winner and a listed winner in to 2nd and 3rd when it won the Group 1

Oratario beat Group 3 winners when winning in France.

Surely that makes Oratorio the better horse as it beat better opposition than Dubawi did using your line of thought.

Ectoo
there are many things to take into consideration.we have 2 high class 2 yolds here,Well 3 if you include Rob Roy.Dubawi has done absolutly nothing wrong.Some may say he hasn't beaten much and that may be the case,But it's how he's gone about his business.There is no doubt he is expected to win this today and on the form book he has to have a big chance,i see Oratario has ben slasshed form 12's to 8's that could be significant.I can't understand why fallon isn't on his back though,But we'll see come 20 past 3.

footsteps to win

personally I don't care what Dubawi has beat..he has recorded the time to be top class..I think at further though

dubawi was clearly outpaced 2 out

he does need further

a decent result

Spot on Ectoo

Ectoo
Well done sir,Now we know why fallon wasn't on oratorio.From a personal point of view i had my doubts and left alone and i was proved right.And i feel that Mtoto should have done the same.But nevertheless well done to you.

no problem

well done for putting a view forward, particularly Mtoto for putting up a selection.

all i ask is that pre race views are given..then we can see things in a true light..post race analysis is great as long as it doesn't involve trying to claim winners.

no reason why we can't discuss races is there?

Mtoto
You say "they have to take a calculated guess".I am pretty sure that Oratorio would have been on the clock prior to today and as you know with 2 and 3 yolds vdw used a speed merit basis aswell as ability.I think the significance of Fallon should have been given more consideration.I wouldn't have touched Footstepinthesand but he wasn't far behind Dubawi and oratorio on a speed basis.

Jd,

Well Done with with Ballast!

Now explain how it was consistent!

Investor,

I took a view on the race, as I said if I had thought D was the selection there would have been no bet. As it was I risked £25 to win the required amount. Yes there were doubts about fitness, don't think that was the reason for the defeat in the end. There would have been a big different if the outlay had been £200 not a bet worth making in my eyes.
Yes I looked at Footsteps, how do you or anyone else put a figure on potential? VDW did say what they have done on the track is the important thing. I take very little notice of jockeys, even they choose the wrong ones at times.As you point out Footsteps did have a better s/f than O, but as I keep saying I don't use speed by itself.
What I find more interesting is why you think O's last run made him a non form horse. As JohnD also made D the class form horse does he also think the same as you, or doesn't he work that the highest in form horse on ability is the c/form horse?
After looking at the race a few times I honestly think I didn't make a mistake in my selection apart from the fact it didn't win!! What I still can't understand is why a horse drawn high was racing at one point on the stand side.

Ectoo

Well done. I wouldn't think it escaped your notice that you backed a consistent horse who was also well in the forecast. Can I ask what you used to judge ability, and how did you put an accurate figure on potential? Did you think the horse was overbet even when one looks at the jockey and trainer? I didn't, doesn't that show there is still value to be had if you look for it.

Be Lucky

Mtoto

I think you will find most guineas contain horses that have won most of their races..particulary at the front end of the market..they also have 4 legs..which is something I look for as well

I picked it on good old fashioned intuition..last year it did well..and the comment made was it would really be something once it raced on fast ground. I didn't fancy Dubawi..the craven form is shite..which helped remove a few (see Prufrock's craven sectional comments on TRF)..sort of picked itself really.

Knowing NONE of the craven horses had shown enough was very valuable..his analysis was a very big help today..I suggest you go and read it.

Jib
Was it amongst the 3 most consistent from the first 6 in the betting?

Piston Broke
I suspect your friend Ectoo is a shy VDW'er in embryo.
Why else would he keep coming back, and perform the mammoth task of reading through the whole of this thread?