Well. it was a step nearer reality to have some shortlists given up front by Invesrtor. I hope he gives us more on a daily basis.

Perhaps it was just coincidence that they were the betting forecast market leaders in this morning's RP.

The bit I cannot see is how he and VDW could see quite evidently, with ne'er a doubt, that Harchibald was a " false fav" and Brave Inca was the winner in the race ( I mean BEFORE they crossed the line).
Rather than the result of hard work, I take that as an amazing almost clairvoyant skill!
I'm fkd if I could see it this morning!

Secondly, I'm quite sure that Investor knew not to waste his money on any other runner but Asian Maze. Again, well done, but didn't quite tally with the old prizemoney/win stuff.

In conclusion, as Investor has ruled out guessing whether a fav will win or flop, I can only say that this ability to see the answer must be a gift that I'll never possess.

Anybody know what Asian Maze paid on the Irish tote?
Don't worry, I'll do the conversion from Euros t £s.

Mtoto
"At times the available price can compensate for the doubts and I think that is the only time to bet"

Surely, as this is a VDW thread, the only time to bet is when there is no doubt?
Quote: "The slightest doubt should be enough to leave well alone".
Nothing personal, but using the price to compensate for an 'iffy' selection is hardly pure VDW!

Seanrua
if it's just one big joke then bypass my posts.Like most on here you won't get of your ****ing arse and help yourself,You want it spoon fed a,b,c style.Well you can get ****ed from my point of view.If your interested then do something about it if your not then shut the **** up.I have told you i don't give 2 shits about this forum or you.So before anybody tells me this post is out of order I KNOW but i don't care.

that emoticon fits you just right Investor

you sure are full of it

JohnD,

When you look at a race there must be questions that you can only guess at before the race. I listed a few I think any self respecting punter would ask themselves. It is impossible at times for you, or the trainer to know before the of. The horse has had a long hard season has it gone over? Will the usual front runner (if there is only one in the race) front run or be held up? Has the horse fully recovered and fit to perform under racing condidtions, etc. I don't know what you would call these factors but to me they are doubts, doubts that can only be sorted out during the race. You may think VDW didn't have any doubts, but how did he know a horse was race fit for it's first run, or would last the distance on it's first try? At best he could only make an educated guess, at times he wouldn't have backed these horse. However there are some of his selections that had these problems and he backed them. I went through the field listing things I would have to take into account about the horses I thought would be to the contenders. I decided AM had the most going for it but there were still doubts, had she gone over, was this distance short of her best. At that price I wasn't happy that it was value. Nothing to do with price covering an iffy selection. If she had been 3/1 + after RP was withdrawn that would have been a different matter. Do you think it is coincidence the few horses VDW put up who were outside the forecast started at very big prices. He said to go outside the forecast was going against the odds. He went outside and took the odds that covered the danger of his actions.

Quote: "The slightest doubt should be enough to leave well alone".

If the above quote is from VDW is it taken in this context or is he talking about the strength of the form? If it is talking about racing in general it is a quote he ignored more than once. He would have to, or there would be no bets ever. I also don't agree there is any such thing as a certainty, but there again that could just be me.

Investor,

If you didn't want to post anything why didn't you just say so? There was no need for that out burst.

Be Lucky

Mtoto
I like the paper version of the racing post and i won't make a full decision until i get it.I am almost certain that Dubawi will be the class form horse and will be very difficult to oppose.Rob Roy is a class animal and ran a good race lto.He's a late 2yold and will have to be looked at in depth.But i very much doubt i will oppose The Godolphin horse.

Note five of the six races were won by CONSISTENT horses. This was just one of the factors against Buckbe which I mentioned last time I wrote. It is also helpful to see which horse can't lose rather than which can win. The first doubt should be enough to leave well alone.

Mtoto
There was every need for that outburst the way i feel.i have been on this vdw forum for nearly 4 years.During that time i also was sceptical.But what i did was i LISTENED and i analysed pretty much the same as you may have done.I thought i knew it all.Then i brought the booklets.And again i continued to be mr know it all.Then i went one step further and brought the form books 148 quid for 26 of them (hence i havent looked at all the selections).I know you yourself was a member of the yahoo methodology.THEN these cretins try and tell me that the last 4 years i have spent going over these examples is basically a waste of time or some kind of ****ing illusion.They haven't got the slightest idea mtoto.I have no problem whatsoever when somebody who has taken time out or put in time and effort tells me i'm wrong.But when somebody who doesn't even posses the booklets take the piss.Then i will outburst wether you like it or not because i KNOW there is far more to these methods than arseholes like Seanrua will ever realise and you know that aswell.So to conclude as long as Gummy keeps this bag of bollocks going i will say my bit.Because i BEILIEVE in vdw's methods and therefore i will defend them.

Boozer,

Thanks for that I had just found it myself. Is this a different idea about what a doubt is, to me lack of consistency is a major flaw not a doubt? Perhaps instead of doubt I should have used unanswerable question.

[It is also helpful to see which horse can't lose rather than which can win.]

Has this horse been born, every horse can be beaten? I don't think it is a good idea to take every sentence too literally.

Be Lucky

Are you quite sure you're well, Investor?

You mentioned a few things like hard work and taking the time to learn.

If you check back over the four years that you've been on this thread, you may find that most of the things I've said are based on fact and honest appraisal.

Whereas many readers may have serious doubts about your mental stability.

Surely,you are not going to tell us now that, in actual fact, you did NOT back the 2 winners from the five animals you shortlisted?

I can't think why you consider this to be a joke:
either those factors and "balance" that you said were evident to all, and leave "no room for doubt" are exactly that, or you've told a few little porkies, haven't you?

I'm trying to learn about VDW from you. My reason is because I've been interested in studying horseracing for the best part of 40 years.
During that time, amongst other things, I was a miner and a tunnelling contractor for more than 30 years, so, yes, I am having a chuckle now, when I see what you've written.

Aren't you the same fella who boasted about how good it is to be on the rock'n'roll and play golf in a mental hospital whilst making a fortune from betting on horseracing?

You're a hard act to follow, that's for sure.

by the way, I'm on O'Brien's two EW for the big race tomorrow. If I get time, I'll post another winning bet for you to have a good laugh about.

That's providing Gummy hasn't listened to your continual plea to close down this thread which you must secretly love, almost as much as your beloved booklets on e-bay.

Mtoto
Same as
seeing if there is a winner in the race rather than finding the winner of the race??

All
Do any of you think Footstepsinthesand has a chance I think on breeding he has an outstanding chance and i'm sure he has trained on otherwise he wound'nt be in the race considering they also have Oratorio in there

have fun

Calm down folks.

Personally I don't want to go down to an 80% strike.

I'm happy with my 94% dutching strike rate - from ratings, pooh pooh?

Average ROI 35%

Michael

Or you could turn the question on its head and ask why run Oratorio if Footsteps is such a good thing? Stamina doubts, maybe?

quote:

Originally posted by Mtoto: When you look at a race there must be questions that you can only guess at before the race. I listed a few I think any self respecting punter would ask themselves. It is impossible at times for you, or the trainer to know before the of. The horse has had a long hard season has it gone over? Will the usual front runner (if there is only one in the race) front run or be held up? Has the horse fully recovered and fit to perform under racing condidtions, etc. I don't know what you would call these factors but to me they are doubts, doubts that can only be sorted out during the race. You may think VDW didn't have any doubts, but how did he know a horse was race fit for it's first run, or would last the distance on it's first try? At best he could only make an educated guess, at times he wouldn't have backed these horse. However there are some of his selections that had these problems and he backed them./
/If the above quote is from VDW is it taken in this context or is he talking about the strength of the form? If it is talking about racing in general it is a quote he ignored more than once. He would have to, or there would be no bets ever. I also don't agree there is any such thing as a certainty, but there again that could just be me.

With respect, one cannot take the parts that suit and question the rest. Either the method works as he said it did, or you can take a part fare, which will not take you the full journey, ( Just love these VDW quotes )?
One thing is for certain; there is no way he could have maintained the strike rates he wrote of, at the prices returned, unless he knew full well what he was doing, including not guessing about fitness, distance, etc.

This message has been edited. Last edited by: johnd,

I'll take Rob Roy for the guineas.

I spent 10 mins on the 430T. First I threw out all those that havent won at the dist. Then I chucked out those that hadnt won at a grade 1 course. Then I heaved out all those that havent managed to win 10% of their races. Then I struck out those that had trainers with no winning tradition at Thirsk.

What was left?.....

Only all three of Dandy Nichols runners....

JohnD

[We may alll want to get to the same destination, but there is no obligation to board the same transport or go via the same route, what matters is that you arrive.]

This is one I quite like and there are others to numerous to put up here. I don't think VDW had any qualms about anyone adapting his methods because he also said......

[Finding a means of evaluation that suits you as an individual is important, because however successful a method may be, if it does not fit in with you, nothing can make it work to the best advantage.]

If you use his formula in the order set out, and stick to it you are using VDW methods.

This what he said about his a/rating

[This rating gives one of the most reliable assessments of a horse, but always remember it must be used as a guide in conjunction with other factors.]

This what he said about time rating

[What the clock says at the end of a race may not appear to tell the whole story, but it gives enough when interpreted and used to best advantage to provide one of the most useful means of evaluation.]

One is used and the other dismissed as some sort of misunderstanding on my part??

Be Lucky

quote:

Originally posted by john in brasil:
I'll take Rob Roy for the guineas.

I spent 10 mins on the 430T. First I threw out all those that havent won at the dist. Then I chucked out those that hadnt won at a grade 1 course. Then I heaved out all those that havent managed to win 10% of their races. Then I struck out those that had trainers with no winning tradition at Thirsk.

What was left?.....

Only all three of Dandy Nichols runners....

Fortunately, VDW was a little wiser than that.
Ballast may well show, despite the trainer's record at the track, that there are more important considerations.
Oh!...and Rob Roy for the Derby?

I backed Oratorio for the Guineas, but note the nunmber of positive messages about Footsteps from various quarters.

Rob Roy was my early Derby bet, so I hope he doesn't shine today ( don't think he will).

Now I have several doubts ( plenty of room for them) about him.
I'll stick with Stoute and will be very interested in Glistening ( 225, Goodwood) as a potential candidate.

Btw, my VDW type shortlist will come later, once I've done the hard work!

Hello Investor,
I can in a way understand what you are saying but it would be better if you put your point across without being personal or using abusive language.
Your study and hard work would then be respected but at the moment you are not exactly encouraging any pupils to join your class.

Gummy

I was asked last night if i would oppose Dubawi with any other in the race.Although there is a higher ability rated horse (Oratario) which has to be respected on class and RobRoy which is a late season 2y old on the facts and the form that are evident I personally feel from a punting and vdw point of view that it would be suicidal to take on Dubawi.Mtoto said that it's Tight and i will agree and at 11/10 is not worth the risk.But i will fully expect Dubawi to be in the winners enclosure come 20 past 3.