Epi
Although i consider Major vernon to be a form horse and has who i consider the best national hunt jockey in the world on his back.The horse is down the pecking order as far as class and form go.Strange things have been known to happen in horse racing,but I would be suprised if he enters the winners enclosure.

He might make a wrong turn.

Epi
I'm not evading any question.Put in the work and you will see wether the winner has the factors,Simple really.

I guess I'll have to wait til after the race then.

I just noticed you're talking about sheep-racing.

bye bye,And good luck with your evaluation.

420 Punch.

My shortlist from winprize/wins + "other factors":

PETERTHEKNOT
ASIAN MAZE
SHER BEAU
ROYAL PARADISE

Then filter by last 3 form figs
SHER BEAU 3
Asian Maze 4
Royal Paradise 9
Petertheknot 15

Still unable to see the factors and balance that are evident to all ( except me) and with plenty of room for doubt, I bet

Asian Maze £200 to place

Sher Beau £5 win
Petertheknot £5 win.

Seanrua
with all due respect,You are unlikely to find the factors that balance or that are evident.There is a good reason why and you know what it is.The last part of vdw's equation was "Hard Work"and part of that would include gathering together the information,Which many aren't prepared to do.

Seanrua

Then filter by last 3 form figs
SHER BEAU 3
Asian Maze 4
Royal Paradise 9
Petertheknot 15

I would knock out Petertheknot because he isn't consistent enough. You are then left with three, would you put your maximum on Royal Paradise. This horse ran a poor race last time based on previous form, and had blood in his lungs. Don't think they would run/risk a horse of this class if they weren't happy but would you put money on it? Sher Beau has the form but for me that form isn't that solid. Read somewhere they where going to put this away until next season to go chasing. Is this a case of greed or is the horse that fresh and bouncing he will be at his best? Again would you put your maximum on him? Asian Maze also has the form and it does look solid, she also looks progressive. but is her price a fair price?

Unlike Investor there are doubts for me about this race and every race. Is RP over his problem? Did they let SB down, and suddenly have a change of heart because he is on top form, or is it a case of lets take a chance? Will AM be able to reproduce her best form over this shorter distance, has a long hard season started to make it's mark? Here we have three horse that if any of them win a VDW selection could be claimed. The big thing is to make the decision before the off. Given all these facts I would go with AM but I would want about 4/1 to cover the doubts and to beat these very good horses. Your £200 (bigger than my usual place bet, I work with doubles) to place looks a fair bet IF you can get better than evens. If you can't get what you want, wait until you can.

Any thoughts Investor? Can you show me how to get rid of the doubts?

Be Lucky

Thank you for the replies, lads.

I won't get very far by working hard to find unknown information without some direction, so, Investor, is correct to say that I probably won't see what is "evident to all".
Bear in mind that I've been trying to unravel the intricacies of racing for the best part of forty years now.

All of the questions asked by Mtoto are fundamental and valid. I see nothing especially VDWish about them, and I'm quite sure my four candidates are the VDW ones.

No idea which will win, so I'd stick with my original bet - which is mythical , btw.

I only bet £200 on maidens! Anathema to VDWers.

Well, it will be interesting to see what happens. At least we have a few named animals before the Off this fine day.

Seanrua,

Sorry about that, although the posting was addressed to you It was aimed at Investor. Trying to show why post race analysis is important. Anyone with any sense must have all or some of those doubts before a race. After the race it is very clear which doubts were just that doubts and not an issue in the actual race.

I would have added Washington Lad to the initial list in the place of Petertheknot. I think most will think Asian Maze has the best form which ever ratings they use. I don't use the Racing Post, but she seems to be top on most of the ratings I look at. You say you don't think the questions are very VDW(ish), but what questions would he ask when looking a capability and probability? When you have a consistent form horse these are the questions everyone should ask. Investor keeps on that it is all about balance, the positives MUST be balanced against the possible negatives. Only fantasy island is negative free.

Be Lucky

Mtoto
if the balance is there it wil be minus any negatives believe me.Have you ever had your cursor on the submit button and then not gone through with it.What tells you this.i am a positive person and if things line up i have absolutely no second thoughts or doubts.If it loses so be it,But i know i am going to get a damn good run for my money because i have evaluated the race and reached a conclusion that i am happy with

By the way,Read my comments on the other forum.If you want to know my views.

Well, all that is evident to me is that Investor appears to pick 1st and 2nd favourite.

Cannot see where's the hard work in that, but I would expect that dutching these would produce some sort of return.

I must admit that I see plenty of negatives, and have plenty of room for doubt.

Not sure what VDW did,Mtoto, but I see nothing wrong with raising the questions you posed in your earlier post.

Just can't square that with Investor's statement, that's all.

Investor,

Analysing your dutches:

310P: W 1/14

420P: W 8/13 (Thank God Royal Paradise was a NR!)

I would love to see how far down you will get with this sort of betting after a few months.

Seanrua
LOL,That is far from the correct conclusion.There are many FALSE favourites and vdw even told us this.If they have the class and form to win a race and they are fav so be it.But don't for one minute jump to the wrong conclusion with regard to backing 1st and 2nd favs that is a route i took a long time ago and it doesn't pay all the time believe me.I could put many horses of 5/1 and above but i would get screeched at so that is not an avenue i want to go down.

Hello Gringo
I expected to hear something from you a while back.It's good to see tha your up and spouting (rubbish).I'm probably a bit of a masochist but iv'e missed you unlike many winners in your abscense.

Investor,

I can see the positives can out weight the negatives, that doesn't mean they aren't still there. The only time they go is when the result is known and that result disproved them. At times the available price can compensate for the doubts and I think that is the only time to bet. I have looked at your posts on the other forum and for me at least they are very noncommittal. I agree you have said Asian Maze is the c/form horse but nowhere do you say this is a bet, and the wording is such that either of the other two could be claimed. 'I would be surprised if the winner didn't come from the three market leaders'

No, I have never got as far as pulling out just before pressing the submit button. Before I get that far I have done my thinking and fixed my price in my head. That price is the only consideration at that point, everything else is done and dusted.

Are you going to put up something for tomorrow, on here?

Be Lucky

Mtoto
We'll see.I very much doubt i would be backing Dubawi unless he drifts like a bad smell.

Investor

The burning question is will you be backing against Dubawi though? Who do you think the consistent form horses are, and can they beat him?

Be Lucky

Mtoto,

Now you are asking for an enormously complicated dutch!

(Just my opinion but with all the softish going so far this season I think either of the guineas could well go to a fto animal)