Investor,

The remark about the horse returning at 5/4 was just to show there are other (better) ways to get value. You needed your horse to win at 4/5, I only needed mine to finish in the first three. That wasn't the main part of the bet as the horse was also backed to win.

Re Akilak & Strangely Brown

If you look on the other forum you will see Akilak wasn't considered to be a form horse for Cheltenham. Yes, it had won it's only races to that date, but that form wasn't good enough to register the horse on my database. In the Triumph Strangely Brown was considered to be a consistent form horse (among others) a lot of thought was given to backing him. The going and course where two questions that couldn't be answered to my satisfaction so he was left, although it wasn't an easy decision. After the race A still didn't make my database. In today's race only two horses where on that data base SB and United. Too many doubts about SB the top rated, and U could be anything, also not sure how the race would be run. Based in these facts it was suggested A was a good lay at the price but not by me as I still can't bring myself to work that way. Some revel in it. I thought your 7/4 shot had far to much on it's plate to be that price, but it takes all sorts. To be fair he wasn't suggested as a lay. You pays your money, and takes your chance, it paid off this time.

Be Lucky

From what JohnD, Mtoto and Investor are saying,
I think I'm seeing a principle here:

" We only consider an "in form" horse when it has adequate,present race-winning, overall form."

Would that be somewhere near right?

It seems sensible to me, but , frankly, I'll be damned if I know what " form" really is!

I believe many successful punters consider at least 9 factors that need to be positive before they decide on a bet.
I must admit that I usually try to short-circuit the check-list by looking at ratings of some kind,nowadays.

That's quite a change, as for years I would back fancies regardless of figures.

Mtoto
What other forum are we talking of?.I'm glad that Akilak was taken for what it was,But i'm a little dismayed that Strangely brown wasnt seen in the same light.They were both non form horses for the race in question.Do you agree that S.B wasn't a form horse.

Mtoto
"You pays your money you takes your chance" LOL.You silly old sod,There was never much doubt it wasn't going to pay off,And it wasn't a chance.When you can understand what vdw meant by "Balance" you will see why.Iv'e had a few beers tonight and i'm in kind mode.But i would relish your opinion on Dubawi.

Any more thoughts Larry or Tunstile?

Go on don't be shy.

NFP

quote:

Any more thoughts Larry or Tunstile?

Go on don't be shy.

Thoughts? I've been thinking & reading and reading and thinking for hours 'n hours 'n hours! I have to take breaks to give my eyes a rest. It's hard work trying to play catch-up but I don't mind if I can see some progress. I don't know how many weeks I've been doing this but it seems for ever.

The thought I have at the moment is:-

VDW studies are all after timing...by about 20/30 or so years. If it's a problem to some why isn't there a thread say on 'post race analysis'? I could then perhaps find out why my C/F horses arn't, and those peeps that don't like aftertiming needn't read it?

Other than that my interjections would only serve to disrupt the flow of the conversations methinks.
Turnstile (with an r in it, I don't know how to put that back in)

Investor,

I'm talking about the forum where you are Pro, and Danny has posted. The forum where you had plenty of time to mention United and Wild passion if you really thought they where stand out bets. After all you were asked about WP the day before the race, but didn't come back until the race was over. SB has tangled with horses of this class and won, so yes he is a consistent form horse who fails on probability. If you think anything else you are kidding yourself. Again this is another case of it being easy AFTER the event. These final decisions are so much easier after the event, it is then easy to pick up on the little clues and dismiss those little doubts. That is what Alan is talking about when he says post race discussion is important, after a race it is crystal clear, don't you agree?

I am more than happy to put up my thoughts on the Guineas, would you care to join in, before the race? Before the clues have been solved and the doubts are still there. I will say the favourite isn't clear top rated for me though, I make it a VERY tight race.

Be Lucky

Mtoto
I did pass comment pre race on Wild Passion and Forget the past.I suggest you look again.The thing is Mtoto,(And i have been told this by a person who achieves a very high s/r using vdw's ) That wether horses are posted pre or post race the factors or balance is apparent for all to see and there can be no room for doubt.Looks like where back to square one with Strangely Brown,This horse was never going to win yesterday.They have to be built back up again when they lose there form.

If the "factors" can be seen after the race then I cant see any reason not to give the horse before the race(????)

Turnstile

Welcome to the forum.
Post race discussion isn't a problem. Claims that X was a certainty after the race are, particularly when reservations are expressed beforehand.
All past winners are racing certainties!
Perhaps if you could post some of you c/f horses that weren't, or even some before the race that appear to be so, it would help progress the discussion.

Sean
"It seems sensible to me, but , frankly, I'll be damned if I know what " form" really is!"

Quote from VDW "What is form, if not that one performance is better than another".
The real question is how he decided this?

JohnD

quote:

posted April 29, 2005 07:23 AM
Turnstile

Welcome to the forum.
Post race discussion isn't a problem. Claims that X was a certainty after the race are, particularly when reservations are expressed beforehand.
All past winners are racing certainties!
Perhaps if you could post some of you c/f horses that weren't, or even some before the race that appear to be so, it would help progress the discussion.

Thanks for the welcome JD, I've been reading all your posts and say thanks to you and all the other contributors from whom I'm learning.

Ok, gotcha on the after timing of the 'certainty'. With me it's the opposite, mine are certainties until the end of the race.
What's more, it's then I find that the one winner I might have got right, wasn't a certainty and VDW wouldn't have bet on it.

OK, I don't mind putting them up, if you don't mind knocking them down.
Turnstile

quote:

Quote from VDW "What is form, if not that one performance is better than another".
The real question is how he decided this?

Agreed, JohnD.

That is the question.

Investor's answer that the " factors or balance is apparent for all to see and there is no room for doubt"
leaves me still blundering about in the dark, I regret to say.

This would be really worrying if I relied on VDW for a living; Mtoto makes it pay, yet we rarely see agreement on selections from other VDWers.

Apparently, the other VDW place is just as lacking in unanimity.

Could it be that the factors and "balance" are all in the eye of the beholder?

Epiglotis
i said a while back to Ectoo that i wouldn't even mention a horses name,I have broken that silence.There have been horses mentioned hinted at that have run at punchestown,If you want to know what they are or the factors that run through them,Then analyse them this is how i moved forward through pre and post race/aftertimed selections.This has never bothered me because after a while things start to emerge,And do so frequently in much the same way as they did all them years ago.

Seanrua
No it isn't in the eye of the beholder,There are some knowledgable folk on the other forum and there are definately some who are singing from the same songsheet.Vdw did say that when everything lines up the horse is seldom beaten.He also said that this particular balance happens quite often,Which it does.It just needs some application and those who doubt would be very suprised at the outcome.

Investor: this forum has been quite productive and it's members forthcoming in an exchange of their ideas for a few days early this week. That this coincided with your absence may not be significant, on the other hand it may be. If you're back here just to peddle your usual bullshit why not **** off again.

Epi
Frustration rears it's head again,Here you are.

3.10 Punch Harchibald/Brave inca

4.20 Punch Asian maze/Sher Beau/Royal paradise.

Now it's down to you to evaluate the race and see if there is a winner amongst them.Good Luck

Thanks. Are you saying all the horses listed display the "factors" or only the eventual winners (and of course selections)?

I'm surprised you haven't got Major Vernon in your shortlist for the second.

Epi
I am saying that IF the factors are evident and the horses/Races in question are evaluated (the vdw way) then it will be apparent wether there is a selection or not,It's up to you to buckle down and do some "hard Work" for once.The horses i have put up are where the likely winner should come from.Now it's up to you.

You're evading the question, will the winner have the factors?