Mtoto/Investor

Re: PK and MK

Those mysterious 2 methods of rating have a lot to answer for
Pity he didnt explain or give a clue as to what they were.
Why hide them?

Not strictly VDW I know -
But since we are chucking stats around for favourites etc -

I have just been on Adrian Masseys site , and he has a couple of new sections .

One is an analysis of the performance of favourites broken down into some very comprehansive groups.

the other - since we are talking "other ratings" -

is - Analysis of Top Rated Selections from his site

Worth looking at !

tc

Boozer
he didn't hide them,They are within that particular article.it just needs thinking about.

More RSB figures

Ist column is class of race
2nd column % of wins for consistent horses
3rd column % profit or loss for consistent horses
4th column % of wins for inconsistent
5th column % loss for inconsistent

GRP1 18.96% +2.70% 2.44% -84.15%
GRP2 19.63% -9.58% 3.88% -62.86%
GRP3 19.15% -4.37% 10.63% -6.36%
A 20.59% -7.25% 9.98% -10.70%
B 16.46% -5.89% 8.87% -26.20%
C 18.13% -10.73% 9.78% -21.95%
D 21.77% -10.14% 9.78% -23.43%
E 21.35% -11.15% 9.94% -19.76%
F 25.76% -9.81% 9.79% -22.78%
G 24.72% -5.87% 10.23% -19.39%

Note their are not many inconsistent horses running in group races.

Roughyed

Group races only how many inconsistent horses, i know you said there are not many, but what size was the sample 10's 100's 1000's ?

Nat

GRP1 1/41
GRP2 4/103
GRP3 22/207

Roughyed

Damn.

This was my reply to Ectoo. But in answering Mtoto below, I have clicked 'edit' instead of 'quote'. (Does the server keep any periodic back-up?)

I can't retype it all... sorry if you missed it!

But if you check out the post below, that shows how it ends!!!!!!!!!

ThickCat

This message has been edited. Last edited by: BlackCat,

roughyed

Thanks.

Hi folks,
just to introduce myself as the message reminded me to do today.

I've been busy backreading this and the archived VDW thread for the past few days since getting permission. Like many others I'd like to improve my SR and have more confidence in my bets. I am hoping VDW will help and studying is a pleasure for me.
Cheers
Turnstile

welcome to the forum tunstile.

John,

I didn't say you use only money to judge class, I don't know how you work. What I said is VDW knew about the pit falls of only using money to do it.

My beef is with the ability rating, I can't see how it is any use NOW. You suggested I looked at penalty values, I assume to show me where I am going wrong. I have gone back to a race to me that shows the flaws in this rating perfectly.

St Legar Doncaster 15/9/01

Milan
first race a maiden worth £7.800 to the winner
2nd race a Group 2 worth £87.000 to the winner total £94.800/2 = a/rating = 470

Mediterranean
first race a maiden worth £7.800 to the winner
2nd race a Handicap worth £120,250 to the winner total £129.050/2 = a/rating 650

I can see when this is checked the discerning punter MAY query whether a handicap could be stronger than a Group 2. (and it is possible). However it does beg the question why use an a/rating needs checking for a basic fact. Ability can only be judged on the strength of the competition. 4 men race for a £100, the same 4 race for a £1000 how has the class of these men gone up? I can see they may try harder in the second race but the class is the same.

BC,

While I can see Ectoo maybe a distraction I really can't see what harm he does. In fact his questions/views can help. They may at least make some who think they understand re think and/or have to confirm their thinking. If this thread was going anywhere it would be different. It's not as those that think they have the answers are not going to go into any detail, and very few are happy to answer any question in plain english. That is the pity Fulham, Guest, and company would at least discuss some of the relevant issues but they have gone. Fair enough they wouldn't play the game so many want of posting and going into detail on the selections but why should they need to. If folk couldn't make up their own minds to who was, or wasn't bullsh1tting that's up to them. Take the likes of Ectoo away all you have is a few postings from those that think they know giving cryptic hints and or having a pop at each other. There is plenty that can still be learnt from the postings at the start of this thread. Maybe any discussion is better than none, and who knows if the thread does pick up who will turn up. That is if the abuse stays away.

Be Lucky

Hi Tunstile

Welcome to the forum.
Good luck.

BlackCat

Hi Mtoto

Ummm... I think you have misunderstood my note to Ectoo.

(And the bold bits in the post are his writing further up the thread).

At the end of answering his points, I said this:

"Don't go on my account... My reason for writing to you is that I think you have much to offer us on here. Your knowledge goes far beyond the average contributor and VDW-er. (Many of us VDW-ers have only come into this thing because we were brain-washed by the infamous Colin Davey).

However, by taking a confrontational stance with Investor and Johnd, instead of us being able to learn and collate ideas, we get on the same old carousel, and those horses just go around in the same predictable circles.

Kind Regards, etc..."

Mtoto: I agree with you!

BlackCat

Mtoto
You seem annoyed because your not getting the answers that you want.For getting on for 4 years now Guest,Lee,Fulham.Have given you plenty of pointers,I know this because i was there to see them.Noboby is just going to blurt out the finer points of the method surely you understand that.If you are doing well by playing vdw your way then what is the problem.I am not being cryptic if your points are aimed at me.I have said to you that you need to convince yourself that the ability rating is used,If you cannot accept that,Then carry on the way you are.Or if you want answers of fulham then come over to the other forum.If you feel that the 3 names you mention are the only ones who have substance then let me know and i will cease posting to you.

Mtoto
My only point was to illustrate that it is short-sighted to assume that all 0/90 h'caps etc are the same; that better prize money does attract better horses, even in the same class of race.
Even your own example, Meditteranean clearly shows this, the horse won the richest handicap of the season before going on to contest the final classic of the season.
Similarly with an earlier example I gave, Take The Stand, which you and Ectoo pooh-poohed at the time on the same class/value basis, but the next time he gets his ground he pops up 2nd in the Gold Cup.
It isn't etched in stone, but it is foolish to ignore it as a guide.

Mtoto
iv'e just evaluated Milan,I can't see what your problem is.This horse was a good thing with pretty much everything in line.Admittedly Mediteranean had a higher ability rating and in the book would have looked the better of the 2.But there are 2 horses that seperate the class of Milan and Mediterranean.Remember mtoto it isn't just the class of race that we have to take into consideration.There is also another point that you hold so close to your heart that put meditteranean well out of it.There are many points to look at when seperating one performance from another.But class/ability would have again been used to sort this race out,Not a difficult one mtoto,I don't want that to sound arrogant or in anyway belittleing but Milan has the hallmarks of a vdw good thing from the way i percieve vdw.

John,

The only reason I disagreed about Take A Stand was because you said it was dropping in class. It may have been judging on prize money but it wasn't running against weaker competition. I do agree, and said so that you have to go further than looking at the title of a race, be it prize money or grade by OR.

Investor,

No, I wasn't thinking of you when I mentioned the cryptic posting. To be honest I do find your postings nearly as frustrating though. The last one is just another in a long line of these posting. You say the a/rating is important, I ask why and where is it used, and why do you think it was used in the Erin. You agree it is flawed but still continue to used it, why? If this rating gives a false impression about class, and it does how can it be of any use to judge ability? How can only winning a race be a guide to ability, what did PK win to show he had the ability to win the Erin? Even VDW later said like PK, Rivage Bleu was without WINNING class, so why think he used the a/rating to solve that race (The Erin). The a/rating is only about winning. class. Why do I keep trying to find out how VDW worked? The answer to that is simple, I know I can still learn new things and until one has solved this how do I know there is nothing new to learn? As I have said in the past I have learnt things that I now use in my every day betting.
I will ask again why do you think the ability rating (the one you use) is a useful tool. I'm not asking how you use it if that is a secret, but what do you think shows about a horse in this day and age.

BC,

The only part of your post I wanted to put another slant on was the last paragraph. I can't see how anyone (new or old hand) can get to grips with VDW until the old examples are sorted out, and the correct solution(s) found. I know some find it boring but that's where the answers are. Lee seems to think Guest had it wrong, so what is wrong? Guest's whole idea is based on how VDW eliminated BL, IF he is wrong and VDW didn't make him a none form horse Guest's theory is based on a misunderstanding. So where does that leave the rest of Guest's thinking, is Petronisi another that is being thrown out for the wrong reason? Using Guest logic VDW often backed against the class/form horse is that likely given VDW said the c/form horse seldom fails if the prize is right. Boring, but necessary if it is now VDW worked, and not how others think he worked.

Be Lucky

Investor,

I'm well aware Milan was a great bet (1 of the short priced horse I did back, and put up on another forum) and VDW would almost certainly gone for it. The point is how did that ability rating show it. It didn't help in anyway, if in fact the c/form horse is the highest ability rated horse that is in form it could have lead you astray. I'm not talking about using any rating at face value I'm talking about using an a/rating that does it's job SHOWS ABILITY. Ok you found the mistake but what about 6/7 runs down the line if this horse ran in another Group race against weaker rated horse? The true rating for this horse shows is he is a top class handicapper, and nothing more based on form shown.

Be Lucky

Its good to see you've all been pining for me!

I see I ve missed some wonderful stuff! I hope to be able to join in when I get home next week.

Good Luck!

Mtoto
i hope you got that,I can't leave that up for thousands to see, sorry.