Mtoto
i didn't play in any race yesterday or today for that matter.I was merely showing that Polar magic had the figures.He had consistent form but had a bit to do the way i saw it,So it was left along with many others that enter the winners enclosure.

I have said to you in the past that i agree that the ability rating is flawed.But the ability rating itself IF used in the correct manner will guide you to the horses worthy of support.But just like speed ratings or any other rating it is a guide and i'm sure your aware that when everything lines up then it's betting boots time.In just the same way that you have satisfied yourself that your method works so have i and i firmly believe and have had it confirmed that the ability rating is an integral part of the method and cannot be ignored.

Ectoo
If you had the slightest inkling how these methods worked you wouldn't ask for a link.

Jazz D'estruval Remember that,Before the off.

after the off? when it had made a mistake?



just kiddin

I now you posted that but i can't see where you made it the lay of the day

Ectoo
It was all in the form.i shouldn't have to say it,Anybody who has studied vdw's examples would have concluded that it wasn't a form horse and at 5/4 was well worthy of being layed.I don't lay horses but i'm pretty sure that those who do and undestand vdw would have layed the horse to the hilt.

Mtoto
Re penalty values.
Suggest you have a look at all the group 1's from the prize money point of view, and see where the very best horses are targetted.
When you have done that, apply the same thinking to gp2's, gp3's, right down to 0/90 h'caps, and, having done that, apply similar rationale to jump racing.
Then tell me that penalty values are worthless as a guide.

Investor,

Doesn't this just bring us round full circle? How can something that is flawed be of any use? How does this rating do what it is meant to do, judge the ability of a horse? You can see from today weak(er) horses running for good/better money. Doesn't that show the winner of this weaker race winds up with an inflated rating?

You say bet when everything lines up, fair enough, but how did everything line up in the Erin? Here you are asked to back a horse that is 7th best using this way of judging ability. As VDW said stick to the top few and showed it in SIAO doesn't this raise a few questions for you, it does for me? The first question is did he use this method, he didn't say he did. 2nd question did he use a way of judging ability, I think he did? 3rd question when he started this did he expect this to run and run like it has, I don't think so? I think he gave the first few examples using a method he wasn't prepared to explain in detail. That is why the examples don't quite match up after he introduced prepared to explain, not the one he used but a reliable cross check. Many have spent hours trying to get the 2nd a/rating to work in these examples, it doesn't. However in trying to make it work they have built up a strange method of form reading, making reasons why horses are out of form to suit their purposes. When these ideas are challenged they fall back on 'ah but VDW was had his own way of doing things' Then they throw in it is impossible to understand VDW until you conform to VDW's thinking. As they have back fitted for the want of a better expression, it is hard to argue against their thinking, as they can make the examples work. The acid test comes when these methods are used today. Those who stick to the basics, and don't try to turn it into a system have some success, but I think that depends on how much they know about horse racing in general.

The proof that one has found the answer seems to be based on can they hit an 80% strike rate. If that is true, I'm not there on the bets place to date. As I very seldom back the shorter priced horses I have no records on how they fare, but from now on I will start keeping records of the ones I don't back as well. Who knows.

Be lucky

Mtoto
Vdw did say that "both methods had beacon light well out of it".So i would say yes.He did have another way of judging class or ability.He also said that he had Prominent King and mr Kildare level using one method and p.k ahead using the other,What were there ab ratings.

Then of course we move on to pegwell bay,Where he sets out the 3 race scenario.it is here that the use of ratings can quite clearly be seen.it is one of the more difficult part of the method to grasp but it involves class and it's all RELATIVE to the rest of the field.

The we have Roushayd,Where vdw introduces speed into the equation.If i would like anybody to get to the bottom of this you would be right at the top of my list,But you have GOT TO accept that vdw used the ability rating or you will NEVER achievewhat h said was possible.I didn't know wether i had got it right until recently,But i have had it confirmed and it has also shut a lot of doors that were still partly open.The ability rating is an important part of the methodology Mtoto,I know you find it hard but somehow youv'e got to convince yourself otherwise Because you are stopping yourself from moving forward.I have absolutely no doubt you make racing pay and probably do so using vdw's methods.But with all due respect,If you can't accept that the ability rating is used you are not using the methodology the way in which vdw told us to.

JohnD

clearly hasn't got a clue about class

but he likes to make out he does without actually saying how

folk who don't understand things are always vague, that way they bluff there way through life.

in real life thats why all the bluffers are managing businesses in to the ground.

More RSB figures

These are horses who finished 1,2 or 3 in last 3 races and are in first 6 of the RP forecast

Race-highest value of day

1ST 960/5119 18.75% -6.70% loss on turnover
2nd 724/3673 19.71% -5.73% loss on turnover
3rd 639/3232 19.77% -5.89% loss on turnover
4th 538/2767 19.44% -5.67% loss on turnover


These figures are for horses who finshed outside the first 3 in their last 3 races but are in the first 6 of the RP FORECAST

Race highest value of the day

1ST 368/3611 10.19% -17.96% LOSS ON TURNOVER
2ND 379/4308 8.80% -24.18% LOSS ON TURNOVER
3RD 428/4707 9.09% -24.58% LOSS ON TURNOVER
4TH 465/4895 9.50% -25.74% LOSS ON TURNOVER

Roughyed

Will do the class figures tomorrow and will try
to think of a way to provide MTOTO with an answer to his question

Hi Ectoo

I don't understand why you seem to get so upset over the VDW method. You don't rate it. Others do. No one is trying to force you to use it.

You seem intent on demanding proof. But what would one race today have proved? I'd have to say ˜nothing'.

If Investor or Johnd or anyone else posted pre-race selections for the next four or five months, would that make you happy?

I'm not saying he must get 80%. They would probably say they are not at that level.

But let's say one of the clan must post 40 selections up in the period. And at least 20 must win. And the experiment must show a LSP.

Would that make a difference? Would you then say, OK, the Van der Wheil method does seem to have merit after all? Or would you continue to run it down?

Over to you.

Keep smiling.

Message to Investor & Johnd
Please don't respond to the above. I would like Ectoo to answer the questions raised first. I know you probably won't take up the above ˜offer'. And I know no one has any right to ask you to do this. All I am asking is for Ectoo to respond to the above first.

Roughyed

by using the first 6 in the forecast you are on many occasions including the whole field though. First 6 in a forecast could be 9 or 10 runners.

Why don't you just use the f/c first 3 in the betting..probably 5 horses on average..which is a cut down and a little more relevant imho

relevance is key with looking at stats..I would rather have a smaller relevant amount than a large non relevant mass of hosses

I think the outcome will be..any stats that suit VDWers they will use..those that show they are backing overbet fav's they will ignore..as they already have done. They will also latch on to most naive ones with relish..like the first 6 in the betting win 80% of races..not surprising when the first 6 in the betting covers the WHOLE field in 65% of all flat races.

They love quoting that first 5/6 in the betting myth as though it somehow cuts down the field..it doesn't.

but don't tell them..they already have the game cracked and know everthing about everything

just like to say hi to everyone been away for a while and particularly good wishes to jib and hope for a speedy recovery.

A couple of things perth 3.30 surely Tribal Venture was an excellent lay,ie how could it win.I wouldn't have chanced a lay on Jazz destruval,too dodgy,the other two principals I couldn't sort out.

VDW said in the P.K. example "from the three probables",yet the consistency figures were incorrect,and the "three probables" were not the three consistent horses on form figures.Yet they were the "three probables".Beacon Light was well out of it,but he wasn't well out of it on consistency figures was he?

What did VDW mean by the "three probables",and more importantly how did he establish them?

Hi Ectoo

I don't understand why you seem to get so upset over the VDW method. You don't rate it. Others do. No one is trying to force you to use it.

it's not so much the method..it's the sheeplike, arrogant attitude that follow it and build little bits of importance around themselves..when there is nothing important about it. I have every right to challenge why people believe highly inaccurate dogma..there lack of ability to explain it isn't my problem

You seem intent of demanding proof. But what would one race today have proved? I'd have to say ˜nothing'.

you won't get ANY race with a CLEAR selection given before a race..no one has EVER posted a CLEAR "this is a VDW selection" on any board. So actually getting just one selection from a VDWer is a MASSIVE achievement.

If Investor or Johnd or anyone else posted pre-race selections for the next four or five months, would that make you happy?

I would applaud it..but they won't do that because they love basking in some kind of unearned esteem on here. Putting up a string of bad value, consistent losers would damage it

But let's say one of the clan must post 40 selections up in the period. And at least 20 must win. And the experiment must show a LSP.

Would that make a difference? Would you then say, OK, the Van der Wheil method does seem to have merit after all? Or would you continue to run it down?

it runs itself down, I highlight the flaws..the clan deny them..not my fault it's built on falseties..don't shoot the messenger

Over to you.

If VDWers had anything about them they would want to rectify the flaws in it..they don't, they just want to talk about old races..but they look down there noses at other approaches..note.. Investor assumes that I am a mug punter..always states I am a loser..implying he and the clan win..I lose because I am not a believer.

it's that sort of attitude you should be questioning..can you not see it????

It's that attitude that I rail against..arrogant know nowts from what I have read on here..bar a couple of decent ones

A total lack of ability to move forward...and belittle anyone that wants to improve on the scrolls..so i belittle what deserves belittling in return....those scrolls do sell well though..would that have anything to do what goes off here???????????????

just for you BC I will leave them alone

I know you get upset when someone livens it up a bit here

I am getting tired of the arrogant ignorance of some on here I must admit..particularly the odious JohnD

You should not need to be reminded that the class against which a horse runs is not the same as the class of race in which they compete. Most will be acquainted with the idea of looking for horses which are dropped in class. Often this is a race offering less prize money, but not necessarily so. The quality of horses engaged is more to the point. Horses which prove exceptional in lesser company will as a rule be pitched higher in due time, but depending on the degree of uplift it can prove a formidable task.

John,

When the above is read it is obvious VDW could see the pitfalls in using ONLY money to judge class. To me using money, or just taking the grade of any race is like trying to judge a book by looking at the cover. If you want I can go through and list many races that the prize money doesn't give a true idea of the class of the race. Many top handicaps are worth more the group races does that mean the better class horse are in the handicaps? I don't really see the point, but if you want I will do it, how many would you like?

Investor,

I can't see anywhere where VDW says Mr Kildare was 2nd rated to anything. He says he was left with him. Could this be because here he had a top/good class flat horse who had won his only 2 hurdle races and could be anything? As he said he was left with him it's obvious he hadn't taken his a/rating at face value so I think he is there because it isn't clear how good he is.
You say the a/rating is an important part of the methods. I would possibly agree if I could find something to do with it. As lee and the others all use it (not sure if they all use it in the same way) I have tried. I think my way is more accurate at judging ability, and I can't get the flaws out of my mind. So what do I use it for, it's an average of something that may have had some value years ago when the prize money did reflect class. I keep asking why do you and others think it works, how does it do what it says on the tin? Now that is quite a simple question and how would answering it give away any secrets?

Roughyed
Much appreciated. If it is a lot of work don't bother just on my account, as I said stats don't bother me. The request was more for the benefit of those that had started to believe Ectoo.

Be Lucky

JD,
Your comments that went along with the winner Day Flight on Saturday, has got me thinking what you made of his chances in the race after the French Derby as a 3 yr old?.

Thinking out loud here, RSB guys if you could have a wee gander it would be appreciated.
Im wondering how many races that vdw told us to look at i.e. top 2 p.v. from the principle meeting & top p.v. from the others are actually won by horses who have come from such type races l.t.o ?.

Mtoto
Once again you credit me with statements I didn't make, viz "VDW used ONLY money to judge class".
Had you understood my post, and taken the trouble to check its content, you may have found p.v. a more useful tool than you give credit for.


WP
Re Day Flight. An interesting question which merits a proper answer.
DF had shown he was improving and had shown his best form in the French Derby, his previous race.
However, after a 3 month lay-off, he was returned in much lower class, a situation VDW warned about, and to which I have drawn attention to quite often in the past. Why did the trainer place him there?
The answer becomes apparent when one reads the following statementfrom the trainer, drawn from the RP website:
"He did it fine. He got jarred up in the French Derby, where it was very firm, and while we tried to bring him back it didn't work out and we put him away"

Ectoo
Like a fox in a chicken coop, you seek only to ravage and destroy, with little thought of anything but gratification of your basic instincts.
In this particular case, you will fail, not least because some of the brood are older and wiser than the rabid dog that sets to chase them.
In your quest for the answer to the puzzle set by racing, you have so far visited speed figures, market signals, value, trainer form, and toyed endlessly with statistics, yet you ignore the place where the real answer lays, the form book, something VDW pointed out long ago, but something you,because of your ineptitude and negative dogma, haven't even begun to come to terms with.
One day, hopefully, you will remove the blinds, and see what is possible when you grasp that nettle, in the meantime, you will always thrash around blindly, hoping to stumble on that which is staring others in the face.
Will I demonstrate it, you can bet your life I won't. The situation at the moment is this, I believe in VDW, you don't; both situations I am extremely happy with as they are.

This message has been edited. Last edited by: johnd,

Mtoto
last paragraph page 12 The Golden Years.

"Using two methods of rating alL 5 horses,I found that the 3 starred horses came out best.Both methods showed beacon light well out of it and his last run had been a hard one against Sea pigeon so i was left with Prominent king and Mr Kildare.PROMINENT KING HAD THE EDGE BY ONE METHOD AND WAS LEVEL USING THE OTHER.

With regard to your other point r.e the ability rating.I am pretty certain that Lee,Guest and Fulham all use the ability rating in the way that vdw intended it to be used.It is an integral part of the method and like i have said it cannot be ignored.You say that i couldn't give anything away.I will have to beg to differ on that score,I found it and had it confirmed.it is up to you to apply yourself and you will also find what you seek,it isn't hidden it just needs a little bit of thought.In no way am i trying to lead you up the garden path with this,But you must find out for yourself in order to be satisfied that it is part of the method.Like i said in my previous post this point is holding you back of that i'm sure.

This message has been edited. Last edited by: investor,

The results of yesterday's experiment are quite provocative. I would've expected Group A to have produced lower priced favourites but I would also have expected them to be the more successful. A lot of people claim to use PM and TS so I assume they have some proven value but they certainly didn't demonstrate it yesterday.
Group A) 7 losers, 1 winner @4-5
Group B) 6 losers, 2 winners @2-1 and 4-1
I haven't time to run another today but maybe someone else could do one, what else is in VDW apart from head of the market, consistency ratings and commercial ratings?