Epi
If your going to carry out an experiment then please do it in the races that vdw indicated and not across the cards.

3.05,3.40 Epsom
3.15 cat
4.35 perth
6.30 Wor.

There are 3 horses that have the figures that vdw quoted.

3.05 Ep The violin Player.121
4.35 perth Schuu shine 112/Powder creek 121.

These are the only horses with the figures that vdw indicated.But please bare in mind that he also said the 3 lowest from the first 5 or 6 in the betting.He was totally against going through the cards so most of your races aren't viable using his methods.

Investor: VDW methods claim to work 'at all levels in both codes' so I see no reason to restrict the sample in the way you suggest. It's another very odd piece of advice from VDW, dont you think? I expect there are higher "class" races today that dont qualify than any of yesterday's qualifying races, so this advice about which races to look at is for compulsive gamblers, isn't it? In any case these experiments are investigating the basics from which VDW is built and as such whether or not the follower of VDW would or wouldn't consider these races is neither here nor there.

Bloody Hell somebody's been busy

I can see VDW's idea, narrow the feild
trap the winner
Nothing wrong with that
The hard part is selecting 1 from maybe 3 probables

But does this reasoning trap the winner as often as he says

Quote"
I suggest that two factors can be coupled together to leave three horses for consideration.
First, consistent horses win a high percentage of races. Second, the first five in the betting forecast in non-handicaps and the first six in handicaps, produce a high percentage of winners. If we add the last three placings of the respective horses in the betting forecast together, we have a numerical picture. This can be very illuminating and show, subject to other considerations, the good betting propositions. A high percentage of winners come from the three lowest figures. Leaving out sellers and novice handicaps it often traps the winner in all races on the card." Unquote

But does It?
This simplistic filtering would be a revelation if it works
and in the hands of somebody capable of selecting the winner from a few probables say 70% of the time
even allowing for occasions when the winner was not trapped due to being out of the first 6 in the betting

This message has been edited. Last edited by: boozer,

Boozer

I would say it does, but it's still tricky to find the winner from the short list.

Good to see some named horses for the various experiments being conducted (from both sides). Rather than the slanging matches.

Epi
During my research of the examples that vdw gave,There are very few that are outside the first 2 highest penalty value races at the principal and the top 1 from the others.he does say that other races from the principal may show something.He was totally against playing across the cards.So your experiment will prove nothing from a vdw point of view,All it may show is that the "consistency rating" doesn't work across the cards,Or in lower class races,This is why vdw stipulated that we focus our attentions on the higher class races and ultimately the higher class horses.Your experiment will prove worthless in the eyes of those who have studied the examples.As i have said before,The consistency figure won't win a race.It is a combination of factors which are perfectly summed up in vdw's equation.Consistent form+ability+capabability+Probability.That is where the winners come from

He was a 'dutch man'.

Yes but Investor it still has to be worthwhile, surely ? It may after all highlight and confirm the very point you are making.

There may well be a clear definition between the lower class races and the better quality ones.

what is the VDW SELECTION today then Investor?

I would actually say that anyone new to vdw would actually apreciate that kind of idea, At least it's constructive.

Nat
I am not for one minute saying it isn't constructive.I have said that through research of the old examples there are certain races that vdw concentrated his efforts.The point that is being put across by Epi isn't viable using his methods.That is all i'm saying,I used to play across the cards at one time of day and got my fingers burnt that is why i now concentrate on the races that vdw indicated should be used.I watch many horses enter the winners enclosure with no money on there backs,The most recent being Tartouche.But that is my way of adopting temperement and not gambling,Sometimes we have to wait a while but eventually one will come along and very often at a much higher price than most envisage.

Some facts from RSB

Placed 1,2 or 3 in last 3 runs and in first 6
of the RP forecast

6625/31941

2O.74% strike rate

loss of 9% on turnover

Placed 4th or greater in each of last 3 runs and
in first 6 of RP forecast

8278/83973

9.86% strike rate

loss of 21.57% on turnover

Roughyed

Ectoo
In your case probably Muffin the Mule.

Roughyed: Thanks.

Roughyed
I have said to Ectoo,He/you can put up what figures you like.They are statistics and they are across the board.I have also said that vdw only backed 20% of horses he thought would win.So stats mean nothing in terms of vdw's methods.It is class and form that will put a horse out in front at the end of the day.

Investor: that's fine. Are you going to explain class and form in VDW terms without recourse to impenetrable hints? If not, I think the threads doing fine without constant reminders of your position.

roughyed

Is it possible to break those figures up into class of race.

Epi
Please don't let me interupt,I shall be watching with interest.

Ok then.

Investor highlighted the races for evaluation today.

VDW says that it is the combination of the top 3 for consistency from the first 6 in the betting forecast in these races, that provides the "well stocked pools" from which to fish.

I hasten to add that I have no axe to grind either way - indeed I have all the VDW material, so I'm definitely not trying to rubbish - trying to be totally objective.

So bearing all of the above in mind, here are the shortlisted horses for those races:-

3.05 Epsom

The Violin Player (4)
Sergeant Cecil (7)
Bendarshaan (8)

3.40 Epsom

Artistic Style (10)
Shahzan House (11)
Counsel's Opinion (12)
Wunderwood (12)
Island Sound (12)

3.15 Catterick

Melrose Avenue (10)
Takhmin (10)
Jeffslottery (22)

4.35 Perth

Schuh Shine (4)
Powder Creek (4)
Chergan (11)
Almost Broke (12)
Key Phil (12)

6.30 Worcester

Dunowen (14)
Ela Re (15)
Euro Blue (15)
Hamadeenah (17)
Mystery (17)

The 3.15 Catterick shortlists 3 from only 4 runners, so not much of a help there.

The 4.35 Perth shortlists 5 from 9 runners - both of these races would "skew" the percentages/statistics.

But on the other hand some of these races involve not particularly consistent horses (from a consistency rating point of view) - with 10 or 14 being the lowest rated.

Hope this is of help and adds to the discussion

Pitmatic
Thankyou for your time and effort.What you have put adds greatly from a vdw perspective.