No worries John it was only a fun sized wager it did look all dressed up with with nowhere to go.

quote:

Originally posted by Mtoto:


JohnD says they are only rating and the form is the important factor. So forget about BL being well of it out on the ratings and compare the form of BL and PK using the factors suggested by VDW.........To confirm what the figures say it is necessary to study the form of all concerned, taking particular note of class in which they ran, the course they ran on, the pace and going of the respective races, distances won or beaten by and most important, how they performed in the later stages of each race. When I use these I can make both in form form horses, but BL has the stronger form.

So for me the whole thing boils down to the importance of those ratings. Anything that tries to deflect that importance muddies the water and is a waste of time. All of that doesn't even take into consideration using the guide lines of lowest three in the forecast and top four on ability steers you away from many of the selections. An article written to try to show the virtues of a rating I don't think VDW used himself. Why introduce this rating? Simply to make sense of the formula the one that say ability + capability. VDW was using another ability rating/measure, one he wasn't prepared to explain.

Be Lucky

Mtoto

Didn't VDW later say of Prominent King The trainer told you he was really out to win"?
Do you really believe that the trainer would have known PK's ability rating, VDW's 'other' unidentified rating, or even the horse's speed figure when he placed the horse? Sensibly, one would seriously doubt it.
Is it plausible that he would have known - for his horse's last 3 runs; "the class he ran in, the course he ran over, the pace and going of his respective races, the distance won or beaten by, and how he performed in the closing stages"? Any reasonable trainer surely would?
So isn't what you're saying is that the trainer told VDW the horse was really out to win without using any of the information VDW himself used.
That just does not make sense!
The only common denominator is form , not ratings, and the only possible way VDW could have known the horse was really out to win.
Aren't you really muddying your own water?

All
I know its a bit of a cheek but can any one put up the weights for the last three races of all the horses that we are concerned with in the Erin race and if pos the times of the races a and b

yours hopefully kiss kiss

just trying to find anything in them to do with the other ratings

have fun

Didn't VDW later say of Prominent King The trainer told you he was really out to win"?

JohnD,

Agreed, but how many other trainers were really out to win that race? Was BL taken over for a day trip I would be very surprised if he was, and he is just one of the horses in with a very good chance on FORM. The job of the ability rating is to sort out what a horse is capable of achieving, so a realistic judgement can be made to see if the trainer is tilting at windmills. It doesn't matter if it is the same method as the trainer uses, as long as the operator knows it is reliable and accurate.

The only common denominator is form , not ratings, and the only possible way VDW could have known the horse was really out to win.

As asked before compare the form of PK and BL based on their last three runs and explain where either fail. That said I can't see how anyone can say PK has the best form based on those three runs. What the rating show is based on form and class PK at his best is a better horse than BL. I would therefore suggest it is quite possible/likely that the trainer knew which race he was targeting BEFORE those last two runs. I would suggest it was after the race the year before, although he didn't win (or even run that well) it did suggest that his running in the Schwepps wasn't misguided, and the money lost, could be recouped.

The ratings confirmed the trainer was correct in thinking the horse could win and he wasn't tilting at windmills. The same rating showed BL's trainer was going to struggle to confirm his plan.

Be Lucky

Mtoto

Just a couple of points you, or anyone else, may not be aware of.
Firstly, the Erin is/was used as a stepping stone or prep race by many trainers for the big one at Cheltenham. I am not suggesting for one moment that Turnell was doing this with Beacon Light.
Secondly, Prominent King was not right for the 1976 Sweeps, despite being the subject of a gamble. Following sickness and a lay off he ran on well to be fourth in the 1977 Erin.
Prominent King was definitely aimed at the 1978 Erin. In fact, Prendergast would have been a fool if he hadn't aimed him at this race.

quote:

Originally posted by Mtoto:
Didn't VDW later say of Prominent King The trainer told you he was really out to win"?

JohnD,

Agreed, but how many other trainers were really out to win that race? Was BL taken over for a day trip I would be very surprised if he was, and he is just one of the horses in with a very good chance on FORM. The job of the ability rating is to sort out what a horse is capable of achieving, so a realistic judgement can be made to see if the trainer is tilting at windmills. It doesn't matter if it is the same method as the trainer uses, as long as the operator knows it is reliable and accurate.

The only common denominator is form , not ratings, and the only possible way VDW could have known the horse was really out to win.

As asked before compare the form of PK and BL based on their last three runs and explain where either fail. That said I can't see how anyone can say PK has the best form based on those three runs. What the rating show is based on form and class PK at his best is a better horse than BL. I would therefore suggest it is quite possible/likely that the trainer knew which race he was targeting BEFORE those last two runs. I would suggest it was after the race the year before, although he didn't win (or even run that well) it did suggest that his running in the Schwepps wasn't misguided, and the money lost, could be recouped.

The ratings confirmed the trainer was correct in thinking the horse could win and he wasn't tilting at windmills. The same rating showed BL's trainer was going to struggle to confirm his plan.

Be Lucky

So the trainer knew that PK had the form and the class, had the right circumstances, and was fit and ready to run, but VDW backed him because of his speed figure?
There are none so blind as those that refuse to see!

quote:

So the trainer knew that PK had the form and the class, had the right circumstances, and was fit and ready to run, but VDW backed him because of his speed figure?
There are none so blind as those that refuse to see!

---

But, as vdw never existed, it is most unlikely that he ever had a bet, so

There are none so blind as those that refuse to see!

JohnD

At last something we agree on.

So the trainer knew that PK had the form and the class, had the right circumstances, and was fit and ready to run, but VDW backed him because of his speed figure?

Short of the trainer phoning VDW he needed something to confirm PK had the class. PK had never won a race anywhere near this class and one thing is certain THAT ability rating didn't show it. Also I have NEVER said PK was the selection because of his s/f. How could I as anyone with an ounce of sense could see two other horses in the race had better s/f's?
One of them being BL, 127 plays PK's 112

But, as vdw never existed, it is most unlikely that he ever had a bet,

Sean,

Fair enough, but although the authors real name wasn't VDW, there (for me anyway) is little doubt SOMEONE did write the booklets. It can be argued all the examples are aftertimed, but then the question remains how did he know which example to start with? You may think it was pure luck, but I can see there many be a variation on a theme but the basics run through all/most the examples, more importantly those basics still work today. The most is because I think in a couple of the examples intelligent judgement is needed but they are very few, the rest stand up, and the Erin can STILL be used as a template. With, or without phone calls from the trainers. It may just be me but even with a phone call I would still want unbiased proof before I put my money down.

Be Lucky

Well, good luck to you lads who put money down on the strength of whatever interpretation you make of the the booklets, and
congratulations to any of ye who actually make the methods pay!

Bozo

Short of the trainer phoning VDW he needed something to confirm PK had the class. PK had never won a race anywhere near this class and one thing is certain THAT ability rating didn't show it. Also I have NEVER said PK was the selection because of his s/f. How could I as anyone with an ounce of sense could see two other horses in the race had better s/f's?

Maybe the person with only an ounce of sense used those s/f's, (and the class they were gained in) to arrive at his own warped view of the method?
VDW however said "The trainer told you the horse was really out to win" which clearly suggests that, through appraising their class and form and how the horses were placed, he knew that PK was really out to win whereas BL wasn't.
VDW also said "It is a fact that trainers won't tell you their secrets, but they don't have to as the answers are all there in the form book". No need to phone any trainers, the answers are all there in how the respective horses were raced and placed, but won't be found by mulish adherence to ratings.

So which one of o'Brien's wins the Derby?

I very much doubt that the answer is in the form book.

Hi Sean

Im hoping Stoute wins the Derby

Bet Taajaweed at 14/1 going on his win in the Dee stakes

Bet Tartan bearer at 14/1 on the lines of winning the Dante lol at 10/1 too,

Hav'nt had time to look at Dr Freemantle,it is a worry as Stoute has supplemented him at the cost of 75K,

Just small bets just incase they dont turn up

VDW however said "The trainer told you the horse was really out to win" which clearly suggests that, through appraising their class and form and how the horses were placed, he knew that PK was really out to win whereas BL wasn't.

JohnD,

I think it is time to call a halt because this is going nowhere. I did hope you had a little more about you, and wouldn't resort to the Barney/Investor type argument. Ok. their stock answer was read the literature, your's appears to be read the form book.

I have agreed the horse could be seen to be placed to win this. The question has to be how/why did VDW confirm the trainer was correct? This and most trainers target horses for big races no problem with that. Reading the FORM there is little/no doubt PK was targeted at the Schwepps the season before, (heavily backed), why did the trainer think he could win that? I have asked you and anyone that is interested to compare the last three runs of BL and PK, who logically has the better performances using those races? Using the critera set out by VDW in SIAO the answer has to be BL.

This to me is the reason some have taken that BL MUST be out of form stance. I don't agree, but at least I can see their thinking. You on the other hand are just saying PK has the class and form as shown in the form book. How, where? It certainly isn't obvious BL holds the whip hand on form ratings, handicap ratings, and time. Like it or not ALL are based on form in one way or another. It doesn't show in the class of the races won, and VDW did say.... Ability, or class, should therefore be judged on public performances and winning achievements and not on any other factor. As you take everything written as gospel you have to accept that, I don't. So where are/is the race(s) that show this form and class? Simple enough question.

won't be found by mulish adherence to ratings.

I don't think I put anymore reliance on ratings than VDW, is he mulish?

Be Lucky

I thought all of PKs races at this course were where he got his best ratings and although BL had won higher prize money coming 2nd in its last race it was a down turn in form as if he was on form he should have won it doing hand stands at such a low prize,
with PK he was a handicapper who was just coming to the boil going by his last race form cycles may have something to do with it but not sure but carrying that weight behind Drumgora would have put him ripe for his next race being all he would carry was 11-4 after 12-7 would be a lot easier. The year before as you say he was coming back from sickness and to finish fourth in my book was a v/good achievement if he was fit could he have won that race which was worth more than BLs prize,just thoughts thats all just picking up snipets from all over the forum,


have fun

Thanks, Rab.

Stoute is a great favourite of mine too!

Mtoto

Thanks for the comparison with Barney/Investor, though I suppose even that's better than some of the company you keep.
VDW didn't view PK's ability on winning form, nor Quest For Fame's, Rivage Bleu's, or quite a few others. Doesn't mean he disregarded their public performances though, or that he couldn't determine their chances?
Was VDW mulish? Not enough not to recognise ratings only as a guide!

Mtoto

Going nowhere or getting nowhere enters most people's thoughts when considering VDW. Well consider this.
Which is the better horse Beacon Light of Prominent King?
Timeform has BL over a stone better.
Haig also has BL about a stone better.
Split Second has BL over a stone better.
Official Ratings would also have BL the better horse.
Did VDW think BL was the better horse? Yes he did.
VDW methodology is not about picking the best horse!

Garstonf

agree completeley

have fun

I know precious little about vdw, but I would agree with Garston's point in that

the best horse doesn't always win.

In fact, I'd say that in about 50% of races, the best horse loses.

That's the problem for pounters, but not for bookies.

Going nowhere or getting nowhere enters most people's thoughts when considering VDW.

Garstonf,

When I said "it" was going nowhere the was just the discussion with JohnD, and nothing else. The discussion was about the worth of SIAO in finding the winner of the Erin. For me at least your post has shown using it was absolutely NO help. If the "other" method(s) suggested to use as a cross check BL would have still been a serious contender for the race. VDW didn't consider he was and that is down to his ratings he said so himself. So that leaves your statment.....Did VDW think BL was the better horse? Yes he did. needing explaining. I think VDW was happy PK was the better horse at level weights of the two. Did VDW think these other methods of rating a horses performances better than his? If he considered them as being as good/accurate why bother to formulate his own?


VDW methodology is not about picking the best horse.

To an extent I agree. Its about picking the BEST horse suited by the condidtions. What folk can't or won't see is his rating are of great importance, they are what makes the methods unique. He wouldn't explain how they work, (although there are clues, the missing link?) and said they were worth a lot of money. He was more than happy to explain the quick, simple, ability rating that should tell people something.

Be Lucky