Good fortune, johnd!

I can't make much of today's card myself.

quote:

Originally posted by sean rua:
Good fortune, johnd!

I can't make much of today's card myself.

Thanks, Sean. It was that kind of day, wasn't it.
A lot of others thought so too, never seen a worse attendance.

I'd be interested in your view of the effect of the watering, johnd.
Didn't look good to firm to me.

On the other hand, several hyped horses met their comeuppance; this often happens following a decent day for punters.

For instance all of my place bets struck gold on the first day - though I was dissapointed with Stoute. Then, yesterday, I didn't have a bet, BUT all my selections went down the pan and I would have done my bollix.
And who should strike gold, but Sir Michael Stoute - a long time favourite of mine!
I should have guessed it. Trainer intent and all that.

On recent form, I don't think many would have got the 1,2, though the stable lass knew , apparently. Not sure that's the one for the Derby, however. I think Aidan may have a better one that is unexposed. FF was just getting a good measure of the Stoute winner, imo.

Attendances:
I keep banging on about the detrimental effect of btfr and the Big4 on the racing game, but no fkr takes any heed! Quite frankly, though, I doubt there's much the small man can do about the situation.

Most people who still like the sport are old bstrds like myself and we're thinning out every year. No youngsters can be fkd with the game; except for the pissy-arsed corporate -hospitality louts who, once again, do more harm than good, longterm.

'Tis a fk up and no mistake, but, anyway, my tickets for Epsom have arrived, so I'm as happy as larry!

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Reply

Hi Sean
if u r as happy as me i feel sorry for u divorce papers landed on the mat today & i for 1 dont feel like celebrating
best of luck whatever you back
all the best
Larry

In the 210Y I have Sugar Ray and Basalt.

Sugar Ray looks straight forward, but Basalt may well have his sting buried amongst the sand and the bogs of Ireland from where this beautifully bred ex-Coolmore gelding comes from.

I'll take Allied Powers again (355 Newb).

Slightly less confident than Wednesday (jockey change and 16R) but should win this on his way to higher class races.

This message has been edited. Last edited by: BlackCat,

Sean

The times at York suggest it was g/f ground, though it might not appear so as the horses kick the top off on over-watered ground.
Something to do with the roots of the grass growing upwards instead of down in their search for water, or so someone wrote.
Would still rather have that than the artificial bog they produced at Cheltenham this year though.
Not quite sure what to make of the Dante as Twice Over appeared not to stay, which is quite a surprise since he won over 10f as a 2yo.

BC

Well done with Allied Powers. He should improve again over further,

Cheers Johnd. I took an early 2/1.

The coffers are slowly filling, and all thanks to an old "Dutchman" (or whatever he was).

I know others may not agree with this, but in my opinion one of the most important aspects of betting VDW dealt with (and something that is hardly ever discussed) was money management.

Thank you Sir!

Mtoto

If the Erin had been one of the races in siao then I think VDW would have described BL as a false favourite. Whether VDW actually viewed him in those exact terms at the time is not really important.
The newspaper forecast favourite is just an opinion. It is the opinion of the person or persons whose job includes compiling a betting forecast for that newspaper. On course it is the opinion of the bookmaker. The punters opinion can only affect the market once it is formed.
Where VDW describes something as a false favourite or a genuine favourite then that is just HIS opinion. It certainly wasn't Win of Brighton's opinion where Wayward Lad was concerned.
How is PK one of the 3 most consistent? Well it isn't. How VDW got the figures wrong is anybody's guess, perhaps Fulham has found out by now. Anyway, VDW was under the impression PK was one of the 3 most consistent so I think we have to accept that and take Narrow the Field in the spirit it was given.
Is BL out of form? Let's examine the evidence. Ran in a high class race last time out which produced by far the best speed figure of the day. Beaten 1l, whilst giving weight, to a horse that finished the previous season as the second highest Haig rated horse in the country. Finished 15l in front, whilst giving almost a stone, to a horse that 14 days earlier had won the most valuable race at a meeting at Kempton which also produced by far the best speed figure at that meeting. Raceform comment for Beacon Light was ˜ran on well'. Timeform states that he ran well. So yes, definitely out of form! Seriously though, if anyone thinks the above shows a horse to be out of form then I would really like to see their version of a horse that is in form.
Now that we have established Beacon Light as a form horse let's now consider VDW's ability rating. We see that he is top on ability in the whole field; therefore he must be the class form horse (but not a racing certainty, in my view). But VDW said, to back against this horse is going against the odds. So let's compare BL with the initial class form horses in siao and the 2 sets of ratings.
Little Owl gets ratings support.
Sunset Cristo and Tragus gets ratings support.
Fauloon doesn't get ratings support.
Greenways gets ratings support.
Wild Gamble anybody's guess.
Beacon Light doesn't get ratings support (well out of it).
From siao, Fauloon's race was the one with conflict in the ratings and should be left alone. So why wasn't the Erin left alone?
Well the answer to that is obvious (to me anyway). VDW did not use his ability ratings in this race.
So now all that's left is 3 consistent form horses BL, PK & MK. The forecast favourite BL was dismissed because of the 2 sets of ratings and a small comment in the form book saying ˜hard ridden last'. Was VDW quick to dismiss BL? Well that depends on what the 2 sets of ratings represent.
People have come to accept the Erin illustration as the VDW method. I, myself, refer to this as the consistent form method. But I wonder how many of us REALLY understand what VDW is trying to convey in Narrow the Field.

Boozer

I don't know if false forecast favourites have anything to do with Zamandra and Stray Shot. I do not have the forecasts for these races. From the actual forecast Zamandra was the joint fav, Stray Shot was second fav but so to was Bonny Gold (which shouldn't have been a selection). Castle Warden was third fav and the other 2 were favourites. The answer will surely be in the Sporting Life for that particular date.

Garstonf

I know you won't have this, but I've been convinced for a long time that VDW was just showing us the first part of his method, ie consistent form, and illustrating its importance.
No surprise then, that in his very next letter he should give his consistent form percentages, figures he had obviously painstakingly researched over a far longer period than the 7 weeks between the 2 letters.
Even less surprising was that he should then write an even longer justification of consistency as a base when he eventually spelt it all out.
Consistent form is the bedrock beginning of his method throughout, even if some of his selections weren't amongst the first 3 consistency figures, they most certainly were consistent.

Well done with Allied Powers BC that`s the way to do it get to know the horses good to see the work paying off for you.

Thanks Walter.

quote:

Originally posted by walter pigeon:
Well done with Allied Powers BC that`s the way to do it get to know the horses good to see the work paying off for you.

So very true, Walter.
As he said in SIAO;
"When you have followed the method for some time, it is easy to turn back to your records concerning a given horse and it will help to balance respective performances". Getting to know your horses in this manner is the real clue to the preceeding all important sentence in SIAO, and has little to do with their ability ratings, as so many followers of the 'Guest' approach believe.
It is also a massive clue as to noting how horses are placed - the PROBABILITY aspect, and given in exactly the same order in SIAO as it always was in his equation.
Interesting to note that Allied Powers had 3 entries this week after his romp in a £10k Chester 12f handicap:
a £7k 10f race at York on fast ground, a £7k 12f race on the same course and ground, and a £5k 11f race at Newbury on softer ground, and which one he eventually went for.
Let them tell us again that VDW didn't know what he was talking about, or that he didn't indeed SPELL IT ALL OUT.

Anyway, VDW was under the impression PK was one of the 3 most consistent so I think we have to accept that and take Narrow the Field in the spirit it was given.

Garstonf,

Why do you say VDW was under the impression PK was one of the lowest three, I can't see where he says that? He says.....* is used to indicate the three probables. That said I'm more than happy to accept the spirit it was given in. After all he says a high percentage, not ALL, and there is no doubt PK is a consistent horse in the forecast

We see that he is top on ability in the whole field; therefore he must be the class form horse (but not a racing certainty, in my view).

While I agree BL is a form horse, I don't quite understand the above statement. There are many examples of the best rated for ability NOT being the class form horse. If memory serves Gaye Chance and Kenlis were both only 2nd best and VDW later said both were the c/form horses. Righthand Man was only 4th best yet he was the class form horse.

So why wasn't the Erin left alone? Well the answer to that is obvious (to me anyway). VDW did not use his ability ratings in this race.

Again I agree, only I don't think i was used in any of the early examples.

Was VDW quick to dismiss BL? Well that depends on what the 2 sets of ratings represent.

I wouldn't have thought he was quick to dismiss BL, but I do think he was quite happy to. That would be because of the other ratings, they show BL isn't good enough even when using his best form. I think the other ratings are the original ABILITY rating. PK is best using them and is then backed up by the capability (shown he could act on the course, and in the class) IF probabilty is based on being in the forecast and having the correct form figures he scored well there also. Plus I think it was quite obvious the horse was being targeted at that race.

Be Lucky

Newbury 3.55 Royal Rock - Was going to lay this horse lto at Yarmouth if he`d dropped to an acceptable price as it turned out he never did and just as well as the horse managed to get up on ground that would`nt entirely have been to his liking.Im not sure if this is a much better race than lto but there are one or two that could surprise the race has that feel to it.However the 5/2 with a book and loading of the place at what i expect to average out at around 1.60 i will make him my only bet on a busy day.

Walter
I'd advise at least a saver on Baby Strange who had better form as a 2yo, and looked to be coming back to his best lto.

OCEANA GOLDback in trip down in class c/d winner,good jockey looks to be in with a big chance today

quote:

Let them tell us again that VDW didn't know what he was talking about, or that he didn't indeed SPELL IT ALL OUT.

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I hate to piss on your parade, johnd, but even i backed Allied Powers yesterday - and i'm still a non-believer in vdw!

Saw his fantastic win at Chester, and backed him nto when he was a NR.

Imo,
it would be just as easy for somebody ( not me) to celebrate "weight" as a key to this horse's success. Travis has taken weight off both victories, and at Chester AP must have been the lightest horse.
I note all this , even though i don't consider weight myself; it's just that i think it's the old story of there being more than one way to skin a rabbit or kill a cat.

Anyway, keep the interesting posts coming; I may be converted yet!

For the big race today, what do the vdw-ers put up against my long shortlist of four:

Rob Roy
Cesare
Creachadoir
Al Qasi.

And if none of these win, I shall deservedly be in el kaazi, imo.