But the richest race, the Erin, contained a false forecast favourite in Beacon Light so a bet was favoured with one of the other 2 of the 3 most consistent.

Garstonf,

Another thoughtful post, but again one that gives me a few problems. Based on everything we know why was Beacon Light a false favourite? BEFORE the off which/what other horse could have been the punters choice, and how is PK one of the three most consistent?

As VDW pointed out BL had a hard race last time out, but is that enough to say he was a false favourite? Forecast favourite, top on ability (if the conventional method is used), and consistent, the only negative appears to be "well out of it on two other sets of ratings". Reading the article the negative seems to have been the deciding factor as horse can and do win races on the back of a hard race last time out. So unless one goes with the thinking BL was out of form based on that last run how is he a false favourite, doesn't he fit with all the requirements we are later told to look for? So is he out of form, should he have done better in that last race? On all known form I think he did BETTER than could be reasonably expected, giving weight to a horse he would have received weight from if the race had been a hcp.

In theory then, to determine if there is a false favourite the form of the favourite must be studied, therefore it must be one of the 3 most consistent.

I can't see how (unless you make BL out of form, and I can't see how anyone can say he was/is) studying the form makes BL a false favourite. I also can't quite see the logic that says the form of the forecast favourite is studied ONLY if it is one of the lowest three, surely VDW said all the field had to be looked at.

So what is a false favourite, for that matter what is a favourite? In general terms a favourite is the horse the general public thinks stands the best chance of winning. The stats say the general public are wrong 70% of the time. (This is apart from the times the bookmakers manipulate the prices for business reasons). A false favourite therefore is a horse where you don't agree for whatever reason with the general public. I think the beauty of VDW is it gives you ideas to find the horses with the best chance(s). I genuinely believe his other ratings are the key, missing link, whatever. What other set of ratings made BL well out of it, I have yet to see them? I agree the ratings are not the be all and are not taken at face value, but in all fairness I believe VDW took the time and trouble to explain what other factors need to be used along side them.

Be Lucky

Rightly or wrongly I had Metropolitan Man as a false favourite at Windsor last night.Good old Henry Chinaski used to look for a horse to beat the fav,if he couldn't find one then he backed the fav.

Mtoto

VDW included Beacon Light amongst the 3 probables,so at that stage he was still under consideration,I think obviously VDW ruled BL out of it on calculations his quoted words only reinforced it for him.

If VDW considered BL as a false fav,as he must have done,it only emerged after he narrowed the field,would that make sense.

deleted same as above

This message has been edited. Last edited by: Pipedreamer,

Mtoto

Heres the OPINION of an old mate of yours regarding Beacon Light

VDW mentions all the time consistent form
BL suffered a downturn on its last performance on both Speed figures and
Prize money, and was therefore not consistent using two methods of
rating.

Heres the OPINION of an old mate of yours regarding Beacon Light

VDW mentions all the time consistent form
BL suffered a downturn on its last performance on both Speed figures and Prize money, and was therefore not consistent using two methods of rating.

Boozer,

If that was/is the reason, why doesn't the same hold good for Celtic Pleasure? His last race was for lower prize money, and he had scored a lower speed figure.

I think obviously VDW ruled BL out of it on calculations his quoted words only reinforced it for him.

Pipedreamer,

Agreed, and the calculation was his other rating(s) they made BL a false favourite nothing else. Even if he had won he would still have been a false favourite for VDW.

Be Lucky

VDW showed his method quite clearly in SIAO.
He used ratings - consistency, ability, + 2 others ("This can be time, handicap ratings or form ratings") - as a guide to the probables.
Only then did he study the form of all concerned and make his final selection, which surely tells us that the final arbiter was form and not ratings. Much the same as for all his selections, from PK right through to RB.

Anyone notice the stable tour in yesterdays racing post,it featured Kevin Prendergast the trainer of Prominent King,he has been training since 1963,he must know a bit.

In the 140Y tomorrow I won't be having a bet.

However King Charles looks a real fav and looks like tomorrow is his turn to collect.

If Tastahil ends up fav then he would be my definition of a false fav.

If anything gives King Charles a hard time it is likely to be Supaseus as the average OR of the horses (8) he and King Charles had behind them in the Sufolk is a mighty 94.

It's not a race I'd bet in, though I think Folk Opera might just have too much speed for King Charles.

At present, my four are

Tastahil ( mainly place bet)
Blue Spinnaker ( small win bet)
Ladies Best ( small EW)
King Charles ( reasonable place bet).

Haven't looked at the market yet today; any price shortening to <2/1 would not be welcomed by me.

Gulf express is now fav

Folk Opera was treated for a chipped ankle after her Lingfield Oaks 3rd Godolphin will be disappointed if she is not much better than a 94 rated handicapper.This will be a good race to watch and the one im interested in is Smart Instinct of Fahey`s.He has a certain amount in hand already but im thinking the trainer has a better race in mind for this one, if he has it would obviously be best if he were held back a little longer.Id hate to miss him though as he has been noted since last season at Goodwood so if he were to win today it would be a bad mistake on my part letting him run without a bet.

A winner in the race?

Today, I'm looking at Allied Powers (455Y).

Allied powers was a non-runner

7th May:
"Just the sort of competitive field to be expected for a middle-distance three-year-old handicap at a festival meeting, with all bar two of the runners already winners this season and plenty seemingly still on the upgrade.
So ALLIED POWERS deservesplenty of credit for winning as he did. He was facing stiffer opposition than when bolting up on heavy ground at Pontefract seven days earlier and racing on a much firmer surface, but showed he is just as effective in these conditions, waited with, making ground from 2f out and cruising to the front over 1f out for a victory more authoritative than his winning margin might suggest. He carried a 6lb penalty here and had been put up only 5lb for Pontefract but is sure to be hit hard by the handicapper - but the way he won marks him out as one to be interested in even after reassessment, so he could be a serious contender for the King George V Handicap at Royal Ascot.

I've taken 7/4. Fingers crossed.

This message has been edited. Last edited by: BlackCat,

That was just about perfect Folk Opera was an unexposed type again she never figured in my top 6 calcs but she only had around 10% of the book on betfair, be careful with these sorts when you are rating.Smart Instinct ran nearly as expected but id have liked to see him finish a length or two further back, dont know if he will be dropped for that but should`nt think he will be raised any.If tv pictures are anything to go by he looked as though he would come on a good few pounds for the run.
Looking at his form i had the Magnet at York as his objective but after that first run im wondering if he has the Zetland in mind for him at the end of this month instead?.

This message has been edited. Last edited by: walter pigeon,

quote:

Originally posted by walter pigeon:
Folk Opera was treated for a chipped ankle after her Lingfield Oaks 3rd Godolphin will be disappointed if she is not much better than a 94 rated handicapper.

Well spotted WP.

I did`nt have a bet in the race bc but im over the moon how thing`s turned out.

There's a better tune to come from Folk opera

I thought Tastahil ran very well.
She'll do better nto, imo.

Sean like jib i did`nt really rate that one pre-race, ran a great race though.

quote:

Originally posted by BlackCat:
A winner in the race?

Today, I'm looking at Allied Powers (455Y).

Allied powers was a non-runner

7th May:
"Just the sort of competitive field to be expected for a middle-distance three-year-old handicap at a festival meeting, with all bar two of the runners already winners this season and plenty seemingly still on the upgrade.
So ALLIED POWERS deservesplenty of credit for winning as he did. He was facing stiffer opposition than when bolting up on heavy ground at Pontefract seven days earlier and racing on a much firmer surface, but showed he is just as effective in these conditions, waited with, making ground from 2f out and cruising to the front over 1f out for a victory more authoritative than his winning margin might suggest. He carried a 6lb penalty here and had been put up only 5lb for Pontefract but is sure to be hit hard by the handicapper - but the way he won marks him out as one to be interested in even after reassessment, so he could be a serious contender for the King George V Handicap at Royal Ascot.

I've taken 7/4. Fingers crossed.

BC

Might have saved you some cash, as he'd have struggled on the ground at 10f.
Entered again 3.55 Newbury, Friday, over a more suitable trip and probably softer ground, given the forecast for that area. Needs to run too as he goes up by 4lbs more than his penalty the day after.

Off to York tomorrow, for the worst card I've ever seen on Dante day, though Twice Over should make it worth the trip.

This message has been edited. Last edited by: johnd,