Just watched the replay of the Victoria Cup there, the 9lb rise from his win at Kempton has cost the 2nd, makes you wonder?.

SURPRISE ENCOUNTER 12-y-o (7 Feb 1996) ch g
NOTEPAD
Trainer: E A L Dunlop Owner: Ahmed Buhaleeba
Breeder: Miss K Rausing
Cadeaux Genereux (7.9f) - Scandalette (Niniski (USA)(12.8f))
110,000gns second foal; half brother to 7f juvenile winner, and decent 3-y-o Night Flyer; dam unraced half-sister to classy sprinter Polish Patriot
My Notes Form Statistics Entries Wins Sales Charts Relatives Quotes

RACE TYPE STARTS WINS 2nds 3rds WIN PRIZE TOTAL PRIZE BEST TS BEST RPR BHB RATING" 

Lifetime Flat Turf 30 6 2 6 £103,109 £131,756 101 114 100
Lifetime All Weather 0 0 0 0 £0 £0
Lifetime Hurdle 0 0 0 0 £0 £0
Lifetime Chase 0 0 0 0 £0 £0
Lifetime Stakes 5 0 0 1 £0 £5 82 107
Lifetime All 30 6 2 6 £103,109 £131,756

VIDEO DATE RACE CONDITIONS WGT RACE OUTCOME JOCKEY OR TS RPR


"” "” 09Aug03 Asc 8GF Cl2 Hc,20K 9-7 3/10 3L, Pentecost[15/2] 8-13 S Dye 100 90 107
"” "” 11Jul03 Yor 8GF Cl2 Hc,12K 9-7 3/10 2½L, Faithful Warrior[10/1] 8-7 Philip Robinson 100 87 105
"” "” 18Jun03 Asc 8GF Cl2 Hc,72K 9-8 18/32 13L, Macadamia[25/1] 8-13 Seb Sanders 102 64 94
"” "” 07Jun03 Hay 7GF Cl1 L,18K 8-12 7/7 5½L, With Reason[6/1] 8-12 G Duffield 102 50 89
"” "” 26May03 San 8GF Cl2 Hc,15K 9-7 3/7 1¾L, Colisay[4/1] 9-3 L Dettori 102 64 109
"” "” 10Oct02 Yor 7Fm Cl2 Hc,11K 9-5 1/8 nk, Inchdura[12/1] 9-0 Richard Hughes 100 52 111
"” "” 28Sep02 Asc 7GF Cl2 Hc,43K 9-9 23/23 40L, Millennium Force[20/1] 8-7 v Jimmy Fortune 102 "” 14
"” "” 15Aug02 Sal 8GF Cl1 L,24K 9-0 8/9 3¼L, Priors Lodge[11/2] 9-0 v Richard Mullen 102 82 105
"” "” 02Aug02 Goo 8GF Cl2 Hc,58K 9-3 3/21 ½L, Smirk[14/1] 9-5 v1 L Dettori 100 93 109
"” "” 13Jul02 Chs 7GF Cl2 ,11K 9-2 3/7 1L, Grey Eminence[11/2] 8-13 Dean McKeown 103 73 107
"” "” 02Jul02 Yar 7Fm Cl3 ,7K 8-11 2/5 2L, Gateman[3/1] 8-11 Jamie Spencer 103 69 107
"” "” 19Jun02 Asc 8GF Cl2 Hc,69K 9-9 24/30 12½L, Norton[20/1] 8-9 Jamie Spencer 105 59 88
"” "” 15May02 Yor 8GF Cl1 LHc,18K 9-7 8/10 12L, Sea Star[11/2] 8-11 K Fallon 106 53 89
"” "” 20Oct01 Nmk 7GS Cl1 G2,58K 9-0 13/14 24L, Munir[20/1] 8-12 G Carter 107 31 57
"” "” 12Sep01 Goo 7GF Cl3 ,7K 9-2 1/4 ¾L, Granny's Pet[5/4F] 9-2 K Fallon 107 70 112
"” "” 16Aug01 Sal 8Fm Cl1 L,13K 9-0 3/5 2¼L, Umistim[7/4F] 9-0 G Carter 107 76 107
"” "” 03Aug01 Goo 7Gd Cl1 G3,30K 9-0 8/9 8¾L, Fath[5/1] 9-0 L Dettori 107 50 93
"” "” 20Jun01 Asc 8GF Cl2 Hc,69K 8-9 1/30 2½L, Big Future[8/1] 8-7 L Dettori 95 95 114 ******
"” "” 26May01 Don 7GF Cl3 Hc,7K 9-4 1/17 2½L, Intricate Web[4/1J] 8-10 L Dettori 86 73 108 ******
"” "” 31Aug00 Lin 7GF Cl4 Hc,4K 9-8 1/10 2L, Volontiers[7/2F] 9-13 G Carter 79 101 96
"” "” 21Jul00 Nby 7GF Cl4 Hc,4K 9-12 2/8 1L, Zucchero[EvensF] 9-10 J Reid 78 91 91
"” "” 23Jun00 Nmk 7GF Cl3 Hc,7K 8-11 4/18 4¼L, Second Wind[8/1] 8-1 J Reid 78 66 82
"” "” 14Jun00 Kem 8GF Cl4 Hc,7K 9-12 5/18 3¾L, Muyassir[16/1] 9-8 J Reid 78 83 85
"” "” 27May00 Don 7GS Cl3 Hc,7K 8-10 9/11 13½L, Mantles Pride[8/1] 8-10 G Carter 82 1 60
"” "” 24Apr00 Kem 8Sft Cl2 Hc,22K 8-8 16/20 25L, Pulau Tioman[14/1] 9-8 J Reid 83 11 45
"” "” 11May99 Yor 7GS Cl2 3yHc,23K 8-13 6/16 2¾L, Swallow Flight[7/1] 9-7 K Fallon 86 88 91
"” "” 30Apr99 Nmk 7Gd Cl3 3yHc,7K 8-12 5/15 6½L, Achilles Star[9/2F] 8-3 K Fallon 88 91 88
"” "” 05Apr99 Kem 7GF Cl4 Md,3K 8-11 1/12 ½L, Border Prince[4/1] 8-11 K Fallon "” 89 87
"” "” 29Sep98 Nmk 7Gd Cl2 2y,24K 9-0 10/26 7L, Maidaan[100/1] 9-0 Simon Whitworth "” 64 90
"” "” 17Sep98 Nby 7Gd Cl4 2yMd,11K 9-0 10/23 9¾L, Berlioz[66/1] 9-0 Simon Whitworth "” 65 73
Videos: "FULL" show full race, "FIN" shows closing stages.
Details of horses trained outside GB and Ireland or born prior to 1986 may be incomplete.
"  BHB Rating is the latest published.


The trainer made a better job of it going into the Hunt Cup in 01, murder when you come up against one that`s holding as well.

Too true, Walter.
The fact that Zaahid 'was holding' had far more influence on the result than Khaleej's extra weight; though you wouldn't think so from the RP analysis.
9lbs more or not, he'd have been a good winner with Zaahid out of the way.

Aye John, its no easy spotting the less obvious ones.

When reading the VDW literature one thing that isn't so noticeable is the amount of time between some of the letters and more importantly certain aspects of his literature. In April 1985 VDW decided to tell us there was a vital factor in siao that he had not highlighted at the time. He suggested that this factor could be called the missing link. Spells it all Out had been printed 4 years earlier so the question needs to be asked; why did he take so long to tell us.
So what is this vital factor?
VDW said it was there for us to see and was not covered up. So it is in front of our eyes on the pages of siao and not hidden away in some form book or obscure publication.
He said until we approach the problem in the right way the odds are it will remain obscure. Now VDW could have used the expression the chances are it will remain obscure. So is "the odds" a clue.
Finally, he says once we find it everything will be clear and we will have the same horses as himself. Now the question here is what does he mean by "have the same horses". Does he mean the same selections or does he mean the same bets.
In theory the correct application of the method or methods should result in the same conclusion. Therefore we should end up with the same selections. But as we know VDW did not back all of his selections. In fact he said he backed less than 20% of them. So in what situations did VDW favour having a bet? Well if you look at the 2 bets in siao, Little Owl and Sunset Cristo you will see that they are taken from the 2 richest races of the day and both races contain false favourites. This is that vital factor.
Go right back to the beginning Leopardstown, Feb 1978. The second richest race was won by the favourite So, which was probably considered the most likely winner by VDW. But the richest race, the Erin, contained a false forecast favourite in Beacon Light so a bet was favoured with one of the other 2 of the 3 most consistent. This is what VDW meant by the only race that was ˜on'.
In theory then, to determine if there is a false favourite the form of the favourite must be studied, therefore it must be one of the 3 most consistent. You will see that the forecast favourite is one of the 3 most consistent on all the illustrations in siao.
You will also see a false favourite present in the vast majority of VDW's bets which explains why the starting prices look so generous.

Gfarts,

A good post!

I think a discussion on false favs would be an excellent initiative, especially as I don't recall the subject being previously examined in much depth on any forum much less a VDW one.

Does anyone have a recent example of a false fav that we can have a look at?

Garstonf

Does this tie in with Zamandra and Stray Shot being the only 2 to back from the 6

I wondered whether "the odds" was a clue too, but couldn't come up with an answer. However, I don't think the answer is false favourites either.

Take Diamond Edge (TGY pg 35) W 8/11. Although it does start "For illustration consider", the paragraph under the horse list says "On the same card, the only other horses that met all the requirements were...".

Also, Little Owl was forecast 5/4 2ndF, but won 4/5F.

As we know, the horse doesn't know whether he's the favourite or not. So backing non-favourites that fall in the method may be a way of getting value, in that favourites are overbet.

I like Vincent's mirrors. That fits for me. Note this line from the Sunset Cristo example (TGY pg 44): "...and note not only how it ran but what it had behind it, Silver Buck, Another Captain etc."

JIB: As a suggestion, how about Celtic Spirit 545 Newmarket 03/05/08 (the Camps Bay race). I guess you considered that to be a false favourite.

After the race, 66% of favourites turn out to be false ones!!

Another recent example is Gulf express 4/5/08
fc 9/2f and returned 3/1f finished 14/15 btn 24L,

Not after timing and a couple on here might be able to confirm that by just looking at the form,I had this as a lay on the baises he'd won enough for now and better things await him later in the season,

He's entered cl2 at York tomorrow and no way i would lay it as he will have a massive improvment in him tomorrow,(Maybe not enough to win but would'nt chance it with trainers strike rate),

So a few questions

Would anyone else have laid it?
And why?

Folk opera could be the winner of this race,Trainer won it last year and has a very good strike rate at course,
Maybe watch for a gamble on Blue spinnaker but im only trying to second guess the fc

But i will await jib's prediction as this is his sort of race

Rab

I had a look at the race last night, and he would need to improve massively to win this. About 3 stone I reckon, which would be some feat in 10 days, even for Sir Michael.

quote:

Originally posted by Rab:
Another recent example is Gulf express 4/5/08
fc 9/2f and returned 3/1f finished 14/15 btn 24L,

Not after timing and a couple on here might be able to confirm that by just looking at the form,I had this as a lay on the baises he'd won enough for now and better things await him later in the season,

He's entered cl2 at York tomorrow and no way i would lay it as he will have a massive improvment in him tomorrow,(Maybe not enough to win but would'nt chance it with trainers strike rate),

So a few questions

Would anyone else have laid it?
And why?

Folk opera could be the winner of this race,Trainer won it last year and has a very good strike rate at course,
Maybe watch for a gamble on Blue spinnaker but im only trying to second guess the fc

But i will await jib's prediction as this is his sort of race

Hi Rab

I don't lay horses. But even if I did, I wouldn't have laid Gulf Express, as it was his opening run of the season and MIGHT have been primed for it, having shown something of what it might be capable of last term. (Just my view).

Was it a false favourite though? Probably 'yes' as Sapaseus appears to have shown more at higher class. (Again, just my view).

Not a race I considered playing in though.

Not looking at York 'til tomorrow.

Aye John i agree,But one to keep on the right side of later on,

Can you see much improvment from the Hills horse Tastahil?
He will need watching after Zaahid's win on Saturday

BC

Garston may be right



The spade work is all complete and it can be seen there is a possible winner for each race, but once again the odds must be weighed. Providing a reasonable price can be obtained Little Owl will be taken because it is a racing certainty.
Sunset Christo will also be taken as it is almost a certainty, but the rest will be left alone. Why?, go back to the beginning and you will find it all tied up with temperament and odds.

Hi BC

I dont lay many horses either but im slowly getting a good picture of what is not going to win in some of the better class hcp's

When i can controll my betting i will,

Still lots to learn

Hi Boozer

Yes, the odds are clearly important. My objection was specifically to the passing of the race because the horse was favourite.

You have it there in what you typed: "Little Owl will be taken because it is a racing certainty. Sunset Christo will also be taken as it is almost a certainty."

They are "taken" because they are certainties (well, as certain as you can get in racing anyway) AND if the odds are right - hence: "Providing a reasonable price can be obtained".

***

But the rest will be left alone." The rest being Gaye chance and Kenlis. Why? The reason is already given in the notes:-

Gay Chance: "The alarm bels should start ringing" and "...but this race is a good example of conflict and should be left alone".

Kenlis: "...but note how the relative ability of the whole field is like a blanket".

Neither are left because of the odds. They are left for the reasons given.

That's what I think anyway. Been known to be wrong though... often.

Here's an extract of an interview with a pro-punter. It was recently put up on the web. The man is AP. He's written books on punting.

I think it ties in nicely with the idea of being either for or agin favs.

" My current approach, which is almost the total opposite of what I've done most of my life, is to concentrate on short priced horses, either backing or laying them on Betfair. So the first task is to identify the races I'm interested in and all the 3/1 the field handicaps get the chop immediately. Then focus on the favourite and establish the positives and negatives for that horse - using form, time, draw, going, stable form, jumping ability etc to set a target price. Then check prices on BF and monitor the markets up to the start of racing."

---

Personally, I'm convinced that knowing when to take on the fav is what it's all about.
Certainly, my best profits come from the races where this idea succeeds.

good post garstonf,..

The 3pm at Yarmouth shows why we need to be careful with ratings i have the fav VV as second rated but the top one 2nd fav does`nt even figure though there is a wheen of cash for him on betfair. I have Spencers mount as top rated but will just watch the race.

Horses improve and make a mockery of ratings, i have found over time that whenever there is a high percentage of money on betfair for an unexposed type who does`nt figure in my top six ratings they usually run quite well, could be a method in there somewhere.

For info the top one pissed the race the fav fin 2nd Spencers mount was 4th fto.