Epi
Funny you should say that.
In a mind-numbing piece on RSUK, discussing the King George, he actually propounded that Azertyioup would stay Kempton's 3 miles as he had won over a stiff 2m 1f at Exeter
His knowledge knows no bounds.

JohnD

Can't let a fine piece of race analysis go by without some form of congratulation. Well done although I must say I did groan slightly when I saw you agreed with me. lol. It does seem to beg the question how many different ways are there (all based on VDW) to find the winners. You work in an entirely different way to me and I work in a different way to Fulham yet we all found the winner.

I notice PKB didn't bother to answer your question about why he thought HE was a place lay. That post like many of his seemed to lack in content and not very well thought out. I do hope he didn't act on it.

Nice one

Right then,

JohnD - my gob is smacked, well done with HE - a full 5 days before the race with full reasoning and no get out clause.

For what it's worth from me (not much I suppose), well done.

Today's Champion Chase looks to be the race of the meeting, probably of the season, too.
The first 5 in the betting are;

Azertyuiop
Moscow Flyer
Well Chief
Oneway
Central House

A
Not in first 3 cons, but won this well last year. A high class horse, proven in today's conditions, and in good form.

MF
Highly consistent and high class. Previous winner of this race, and still as good as ever on recent form.

WC
Not in first 3 cons.High class, still improving, but as yet unproven in Gd1 company, novices apart. No problems with today's conditions, his lto form raises some questions, but wouldn't be the first to fail in a trial and go on to win the big one.

O
In first 3 cons, improving, and a rattling good horse, but has yet to show form at anything like this level.

CH
In first 3 cons. Improving, but unproven at this level. U/r in last year's Arkle. In good form currently, but shouldn't be good enough.

Too close to call on a class basis, and not a betting race for me, but I do think A will win.
Still improving, (IMO), he has had a very similar preparation to last year when he also had a Tingle Creek defeat by MF on his c.v., and certain to be spot on for the one race he has been trained for all season.


Mtoto, Nfp,
Thanks, wonder if he will now qualify to go back on Investor's list?

Spot on JD
A Banker indeed

Win or not quite win - a very good example of pre-race analysis, JohnD!

Thank you.

Is there a reason why Investor and pakboy don't provide us with similar?

The Stayers looks a bit messy with Rule Supreme probably better on softer, and Inglis Drever apparently having been trained all season to try and make him a 2 mile horse, so would be a no bet race for me. To keep nfp happy , I will set out the analysis for the 2.35.

First 5 in betting:

OUR VIC
RATHGAR BEAU
THISTHATANDTOTHER
LE ROI MIGUEL
FONDMORT


OV
In first 3 cons, (Forgiving his lto fall) high class, improving, c/d & going no problem. Showed good form for his first run of season when falling at the last in 63k c/d race.

RB
In first 3 cons, Although he has won a number of small gd2's, has yet to prove he is up to this class. Best form over shorter trips, and his last 2 victories are open to question, (IMO).

TTAT
In first 3 cons. High class novice last season, who always looked as though he would be better over further. Placed in 3 63k races this year, has something to find with OV on his 2nd run, though he did clout a couple. Ran v well lto over an inadequate trip.

LRM
Not in first 3 cons. Has yet to show class to win this. Apparently improved for wind operation this season, though his 20l defeat of Farmer Jack is questionable form. Totally outclassed behind gd1 horses lto.

F
Not in first 3 cons. High class handicapper with 2 c/d victories in strongly run races. Should have performed much better than he did lto, and could not be considered on any of this season's form.

Our Vic looks much the likeliest winner given the expected improvement from his first run of the season. Hard to see what the traditionalists would make of it, though, given his low a/r .
In a strongly run race, Thisthatandtother may give him most to do.

Gold Cup

1st 5 in bettting;

Kicking King*
Beef Or Salmon
Strong Flow
Celestial Gold*
Grey Abbey*

* 3 most consistent

KK
Highly consistent, high class and improving. However, fails on capability IMO.
The majority of his form is over lesser tests, and in his only 2 races at 3m he was beaten fair and square by BOS, and although winning the KG over a sharp 3m, his last fence blunder suggests he may have been coming to the end of his tether. Horses like One Man and Florida Pearl had similar credentials, but never managed to win a Gold Cup.

BOS
Highly consistent, (Though some would argue ), high class horse, and still improving IMO.
Btn 3.5l by Best Mate last year, and has done nothing wrong since then, if one accepts the reasons for his lto performance.

SF
Consistent. Hugely impressive winner of Hennessey 2 years ago then injured himself when winning at Kempton. His 2 subsequent runs should be seen as the prep runs they were, and will no doubt be seen in a truer light today. Today's race was targetted after the Hennessey,however, he still has it prove at this level.

CG
Consistent & improving. Won Hennessey beating high class novice Ollie Magern. Rested since, and brought back at Newbury, IMO as a prep race for this. Again, has it to prove at this level.

GA
Highly consistent and still improving. Won 2 gd2's, the last one over c/d, beating 158 rated Therealbandit by 16l. However, the ground could be a worry at this level as, although he has won races on it, he has also been prone to jumping errors.

Of the others, Sir Rembrandt finished 2nd last year but probably needs softer ground, and Take The Stand should run better than recently on this faster ground.
All things considered, Beef Or Salmon looks much the likeliest winner, with maybe Strong Flow to test him the most.

JohnD
Hardy eustace went back on my list after the last run.Incidently if you care to look of the list horses.
Trabogan 5/1
Ollie magern 8/13
Malek 13/2
Macs joy 13/8.

Others
Harchibald 2nd
Baracouda 2nd
Azertyioup.

To run
Kingscliff (non runner)
Kicking King
Celestial Gold

And we know what there all running in.I'm quite happy and have also made a decent profit.

This message has been edited. Last edited by: investor,

interesting reading again johnd , i feel that at a better price pizzaro will give you a good run for your money in the gold cup.

Strong flow 315C should turn this into a procession.

Jib
Evaluate to accumulate,Or then again you can always gamble.I hope you didn't put 7k on that one.

An interestingly timed reply investor.

I suppose there was too much conflict for you, (just as well there's no racing in Baghdad.)

Investor,

I see you are claiming 11 wins from 12 bets on the other forum. I think you had better look for treatment.

Jib
I hope you are good with your bow and arrow,Otherwise you may starve to death.

Note the 2 horses left in the list.If you knew where to look and what for,Well,i'll leave the rest for you own imagination.

Investor
Imagination seems to be your strong point?

This message has been edited. Last edited by: johnd,

JohnD
"Kicking King Fails on capability".What a load of pooh.Please explain capability for me i am intrigued.From a class and form point of view the horse was streets ahead of anything in that race.You give a good analysis of Hardy Eustace although the horse wouldn't have been backed.And then you completely balls proceedings up by saying Kicking King isn't capable,Complete horse shit.

I see you have got back to normality 0/3 on the 80% thread.

Just been checking the 80% thread looking for your selections Investor, couldn't see them..then i read the rules..you have to post on there BEFORE a race

still aftertiming on here I see

well it's easier than picking them before the race

keep up the good work..i love reading a good aftertime..and you are the best i've seen at it

Any of you guys know if the draw has any effect at the Curragh?

I found this

The Bias depends on where the stalls are. Those drawn very high or very low have a distinct advantage, especially in large fields.