Johnd

VDW gave his formula for those who wanted something in the way of rules. It was a response to the confusion caused by the key so it WAS made up when VDW composed this response. VDW did not confine himself to a set of rules so did not use a formula.
What the formula represents is VDW's thought processes when evaluating the chances of a horse being a likely winner. The ability mentioned in the original formula is not a quantifiable entity. The horse is either able or unable to win the race being evaluated. There is no might do's or can do's. If it is deemed able to win then the next step is to see if it is capable of winning under the conditions.
Only later did VDW decide to quantify ability in the form of class ratings.
The ability rating was introduced as a good way of finding virtual racing certainties. But as you say nothing is stand alone in VDW. The ability rating has to be confirmed or validated by another measure. If it is not validated then a state of conflict would exist.
Look at Love From Verona, near the bottom on VDW's ability ratings; Drumlerry, rock bottom; Quickapenny near the middle. It is here where the marking off of the top 4 on ability, as stated in siao, does not fit. The ability ratings were NOT present in VDW's early examples, just the two ratings he mentioned previously. VDW still deemed that the 3 horses mentioned were ABLE to win the race they were contesting.

Garstonf

"VDW did not confine himself to a set of rules so did not use a formula."

VDW gave his formula in 1979, repeated it many times afterwards, even including his final selections in 1995, so to say he didn't use one just isn't true.
The formula isn't a set of rules, and cannot be systemised, but a set of guidelines calling for intelligent judgement.

"The ability rating has to be confirmed or validated by another measure."

No it doesn't, it is a guideline. Ability (class) needs to be confirmed, which is, on occasion, a totally different matter.
Not a mention of a/r's in the early examples or Systematic betting, but that doesn't mean he ignored class. Ability ratings are a guide to class, not scriven in stone.

SMILE THOUGH YOUR HEART IS BREAKING

quote:

Originally posted by sean rua:
What I did notice, when checking the RP later, was that it had the "best, best RPR).
Perhaps. this ties in wiuth the stuff about " class being permanent"?

In fact, RPR had quite a good day.

Hi Sean

I've found the RPR to be a reliable rating. I always check it.

Mtoto

VDW indicated in numbers game to form a picture and confirmed it later on that highly consistent horses outside the forecast area should be included in the evaluation. Love From Verona had the third lowest consistency rate in the field so fell into this category. It was not in the betting forecast in my paper.
If VDW rated the first 5/6 in the betting forecast it follows that he must also have rated the other consistent horses brought into the evaluation. Both Son Of Love and Billbroker were quoted 33/1 in my paper they had the fourth and second lowest consistency rates. In this particular case he must have rated three quarters of the field.
The forecast favourite must be one of the three most consistent is a theory of mine that fits in with my theory of the missing link. True Another Signcentre was not one of the three most consistent. When VDW said the only other race to consider provided Soaf I think he was referring to the mechanical part of the procedure trapping the winner. In my opinion VDW did not back Soaf.

Johnd

I don't see how VDW's formula fits in with Arthur´s Minstrel etc unless you are referring to something else. You think he used a physical formula and I think he used something that was in his subconscious. It's just a difference of opinion.
Ability in the form of class ratings does not have to be backed up by another measure but ability in the form of class does because on occasion it is different. You'll have to expand on that one, I'm not sure I understand what you mean.

Garstonf

That is the whole point!
Arthur's Minstrel etc do fit in with the formula he gave, but would never fit in with a system. He repeated the formula often enough to stress its importance, and imo it's important in all of his selections. Also, in my view, the only approach to VDW that doesn't need to invent its own stories.
Likewise, such as Prominent King and Rivage Bleu had shown ability, even though they hadn't an ability rating, (Or so VDW thought when he penned those final letters).

johnd, garston, vdw, said, he had never shown how to find these selections before..gave credit to jb, for showing rivage bleu, travado,

Grundy

You're quite right VDW said"This is done quite differently from anything I've shown before", probably because he was showing how to look at a racecard from the aspect of horses where The trainer told you the horses were really out to win..
That does not mean they didn't fit with his formula, rather that they confirmed the last part of it.
I know Vincent will probably be upset by it, but he didn't give the credit to JB, in fact he said of JB's evaluation it was a good stab which suggests he was well wide of the mark.

This message has been edited. Last edited by: johnd,

Walter,

Wonderful result on Wednesday!

V well done!

I hope the hangover wasn't too bad!

No too bad John,
Once in a lifetime odds, he had his chance granted a wee leap in faith was required.

I hope I can get back on the rails with Al Khaleej 245A.

quote:

Originally posted by john in brasil:
I hope I can get back on the rails with Al Khaleej 245A.

I'm looking at Zaahid in this one (220A). Backed from 14/1 into 9/1.

Ascot,1:45,Jamboretta,3,W,100

Hay,1:25,Very Cool,6,W,100

Hay,2:00,Border Castle,1,E,25
Hay,2:00,Mamlook,14,E,25

tc

Sorry - post intended for the tipping forum

You boys had the forecast between you well done.

BC,

Well Done!

Cheers! Every cat has his day.

I took 10/1 with dear Uncle Ladbrokes. After a few losers recently, this put me nicely back into profit.

Well done BC
Good you got 10/1 as it was a fair gamble fae 14/1 down to 5/1

Well done BC, that's the way to do it.

Oldtimer