This thread is rapidly becoming the JIB Show. So if people don't mind I'll try and change the subject back to VDW. (Oh! By the way. Well done on your selections JIB. Damn! He's stealing the show again.)
Here's my post.
In my opinion there are two people who have caused confusion with VDW and his methods resulting in VDW writing things that in hindsight he probably wished he hadn't.
VDW's response to G Hall congratulating him on spotting the key was a major error. Readers took this as confirmation that his method was in fact a system with a magic ingredient that once found would automatically give the selections. VDW then tried to correct this by declaring there was no magic formula, but instead of leaving it at that, he made another mistake and gave his own magic formula.
This he gave as Constant Form + Ability + Capability + Probability + Hard Work = Winners.
After seeing it in print he thought, "Hang on, form isn't constant. A horse does not produce the same form race in race out. What about when it has an off day? Consistent, that's the word to use. A horse that runs consistently well, yes that's the one. The next time I use the formula I'll change it to Consistent Form."
Later on the doubts crept in again. "Ability, capability, don't they mean the same thing. If a horse is able then it must be capable. How can we tell if a horse is able?" (Four legs would be a good start). Suddenly he has a brainstorm; "Damn" he thought "I've missed something out that's really important, Class. How can you tell the class horse in the race?" "Hmm" he thinks "I'm sure I've read that question somewhere before." "How do we measure class? Official ratings, that's it. The higher the horses' class the higher its' official rating. Bit too obvious, it's probably been done before. I know, winning prize money divided by the number of races won. That'll do. So it's Consistent Form + Class + Capability..." "Wait a minute!" he thinks "That's two changes. People will think I'm making it up as I go along. I know! I'll call my new class rating an ability rating." Sorted!

I've got a question for Vincent, which he'll hopefully see before he leaves us.

I would be very interested in your thoughts concerning the Staking Plan given in Systematic Betting. Staking was the first subject that VDW addressed when he 'threw in some silver'.

Do you think VDW really used that plan? And if so, do you think it continued to be successful for him?

BlackCat

Has anyone ever checked the local mental hospitals to see if VDW was an inmate around the time these letters appeared?
You vdw followers seem to be trying to fit 3 different methods into one and therefore coming up with different horses,
Its a bit like Jekyll says this 1,Hyde says that 1 and their pal says its this 1 ffs any good ratings or the betting fc will give you a better idea than vdw

There's nothing like a good, positive post. And Rab... that was nothing like a good, positive post!

Aye BC

Ive too much time on my hands

Here's something to keep you out of mischief. One of my favourites: REM

BC

they dont write them like they used to http://www.lyricsmode.com/lyrics/s/sweet/wig_wam_bam.html thank g_d

Even money favourites don't take much finding, but I'll be on Tazbar today.

BC

You get nothing for close.

I'll be smiling again by the end of the day.

BC

this is becoming a habit jib well done again,you must have cracked it.

I had both Eradicate and Heaven Knows in the note book after the pontefract race,after nottingham they are both still in the notebook,having run as well as could be expected,the winner was a good bet too.Their placement is eagerly anticipated,any views on whether they are now on the boil so to speak.

This message has been edited. Last edited by: Pipedreamer,

PD, id hazzard a guess that Eradicate was already on the boil however id suggest his trainer slightly underestimated the Stoute horse having already taken that horses measure to a tune last season conceding him 11lbs.

Three days before the race I posted in another place that my two against the field were Eradicate and Cabinet but with the former being preferred to the latter.

On the eve of the race I inverted my opinion. I went against Eradicate because I thought that connections would not want to take on Cabinet when their horse is more likely to be better at further and on firmer going. Eradicate is by Monjeu whose progeny are three times more successful on fast going than on g/s and three times more successful at 14+f than at 10f.

Cabinet got his nose in front at the end but I suspect that although he was the class animal in the race he wasn't 100% fit. If that is the case then it would be prudent to beware Mr Stoute's other runners who don't have such a large class advantage over their rivals.

Sir Michael has a filly in this situation running on Saturday, she will almost certainly be fav again, but I will be opposing her with something else and hope to get a decent sporting price as a result.

Eradicate is obviously better than his rating, though the handicapper may well take an attitude about that after this race, but I don't think we will see him being placed to win at less than 12f.

John have you had a change of mind on Eradicate as the last time we spoke about him your opinion was that he was`nt well enough handicapped at present?, the Macbeth debate.

Walter,

On the morning of 25-03-08 Eradicate looked far too high in the weights, however by nightfall he had proven that not to be the case. He had a lot of proven ability going into yesterdays race.

were hanging on your word jib give us the word were in like flynn

I think the nottingham race is a race where the form will stand up,although only time will tell.

If Stoute keeps 4 year old "handicappers" in training there must be a very good reason for doing so.I personally will be following the placement of the first 3 home in this race with interest.

My edits are to correct spelling mistakes.

This message has been edited. Last edited by: Pipedreamer,

John as i understand it your class 2 method is all about taking horses before it is too obvious (OR) wise, a point that could have been taken up with Garston earlier today.I have a lot of respect for the mans view as i do with yours but as always everyone needs to watch what they are sayin specially if they are wingin it.

Reading recent posts, it strikes me that I am out of my depth.

When I read the above messages, together with other recent exchanges, I realise that my understanding of horse-racing is still so very limited. Therefore, I shall try and keep a lower profile until I have progressed a little further.

I am encouraged to think that the small success I am achieving now (without the understanding that you guys have) can only mean even better times ahead.

Walter, Pipedreamer, Johnd, GarstonF, Vincent, Mtoto, Ectoo and of course JIB - I take my hat to you. You may not always agree - in fact, you may seldom agree , but in my humble opinion, you do all really know your stuff.

I'll still contribute, but not quite so often. (Listens for cheer). It'll be hard work though... you must have guessed what a big mouth I've got sometimes!!

Walter,

A horse can be too high in the weights but still have enough ability to win. It depends on how it has been placed.

Yesterday Eradicate had the beating of Heaven Knows as 1lb was never going to reverse the 3.5ls advantage he held from 25-03. Apart from Cabinet there was nothing else to beat class wise.

If I was Mr Johnston, and I don't pretend to be as wise nor as courageous as our fellow countryman, I would only have massaged Eradicates mark yesterday, Cabinet would have frightened me, and kept him for what I am sure will prove to be his best ground and distance, where he should be able to demonstrate even more ability than at his two last distance-cramped contests.

Has anyone looked at the 1.15 Sandown today?
Ive backed Stubbs art and a couple of small bets for the Guineas at 200/1,Fingers crossed lol,
Its 3rd to Twice over(now fav for Derby) caught my eye