Do any of you guys use that vdw method for older horses where you note any of the first 3 in the b/f/c that finishes 1st or 2nd in either of the two most valuable races at the tracks vdw mentioned?.

Saturday April 12 2008
Doncaster 16:45 - Result
Bawtry Conditions Stakes
£20000 added, 3yo only, 7f, Class 2, £12952 penalty, 6 ran
Going: Soft Winning Time: 1m 29.76s

Pos. Dr. Dist. Horse Wt Jockey Trainer Age SP
1 4 Tasdeer (USA) 8-12 R Hills M A Jarvis 3 Evs f
tracked leader, shaken up to lead well over 1f out, ridden out final furlong opened Evs touched 5/4 £1100-£800 £550-£400 £1500-£1200 £1000-£800 £500-£400 (x2) £1100-£1000 (x2) £550-£500 (x2) £1000-£1000 £500-£500 £2000-£2000
2 5 1¾ Spitfire 9-1 E Ahern J R Jenkins 3 7/2
held up in touch, switched right and headway 2f out, ridden and stayed on to chase winner entering final furlong, no impression opened 7/2 touched 4/1 £4000-£1000
3 2 1¼ Silver Wind 8-12 T G McLaughlin P D Evans 3 9/1
held up, outpaced 4f out, soon ridden, headway over 1f out, kept on under pressure final furlong opened 10/1 touched 11/1
4 1 5 Kalhan Sands (IRE) 8-12 P J McDonald G A Swinbank 3 18/1
tracked leaders, ridden over 1f out, no impression final furlong opened 12/1 touched 18/1
5 6 ½ Mister Hardy 8-12 P Hanagan R A Fahey 3 7/2
led, ridden and headed well over 1f out, weakened final furlong opened 5/1 touched 5/1 £2000-£400
6 7 5 Baronovici (IRE) 8-12 T Hamilton D W Barker 3 25/1
keen early, tracked leaders, driven and outpaced over 2f out, weakened final furlong opened 22/1 touched 25/1


Doncaster Mile Stakes (listed)
£30000 added, 4yo plus, 1m, Class 1, £17778 penalty, 8 ran
Going: Soft Winning Time: 1m 41.27s
.....................................................................................................................

Pos. Dr. Dist. Horse Wt Jockey Trainer Age SP
1 8 Medicine Path 9-1 J P Spencer P W Chapple-Hyam 4 9/2
dwelt, held up in rear, steady headway on outside 2f out, led entering final furlong, soon ridden and edged left, kept on opened 9/2 touched 5/1 £4500-£1000 £1350-£300
2 7 1 Don't Panic (IRE) 8-12 A Munro P W Chapple-Hyam 4 6/4 f
behind, headway to lead 2f out, ridden and headed entering final furlong, kept on opened 13/8 touched 13/8 £1950-£1200 £813-£500 (x2) £650-£400
3 6 2 Babodana 8-12 J Quinn M H Tompkins 8 22/1
held up, effort 2f out, soon ridden, stayed on same pace final furlong opened 25/1 touched 25/1
4 4 1¼ Blythe Knight (IRE) 9-3 G Gibbons J J Quinn 8 6/1
tracked leaders, ridden over 1f out, kept on same pace no impression opened 7/1 touched 7/1
5 5 5 Tell 8-12 R Hills J L Dunlop 5 5/1
tracked leader, led over 2f out, soon headed, ridden and no impression approaching final furlong opened 9/2 touched 5/1 £2500-£500
6 1 9 Smart Enough 8-12 D Sweeney M A Magnusson 5 14/1
led, headed over 2f out, soon ridden and lost place, weakened final furlong opened 16/1 touched 20/1
7 2 2¼ Dubai's Touch 9-1 J Fanning M Johnston 4 12/1
dwelt, towards rear, driven and outpaced 4f out, weakened 2f out opened 12/1 touched 12/1
8 3 29 Re Barolo (IRE) 8-12 T E Durcan M Botti 5 16/1
chased leaders, ridden 3f out, soon lost place, weakened and eased over 1f out opened 22/1 touched 22/1
.................................................................................................................
Am i right in thinking that all four horses would be noted from Doncaster on Saturday.

quote:

Originally posted by walter pigeon:
Do any of you guys use that vdw method for older horses where you note any of the first 3 in the b/f/c that finishes 1st or 2nd in either of the two most valuable races at the tracks vdw mentioned?.

Not me WP.

BC

Err... thinking about it, I should say not directly. Personally, I do my selections day-to-day and don't work from a notebook of horses to follow. However, on the day, if these horses show themselves in a race where I think they have a chance, then I would pick them up (and the information that they finished 1 or 2) from there - if that makes sense.

I know that VDW advised working from a notebook of horses to follow, but I wonder if he would still do that today, when the information is at hand at the click of a few keys.

BC

WP

Don't keep lists myself, but do an eye on some horses and how they are placed.
Don't Panic would definitely be one to keep an eye out for, showed improved form again on Saturday. Ideally needs a stiff Im+ with some cut, so they'll probably race him again soon.
The conditions race form isn't worth a carrot imo, and I'd be surprised if Spitfire wins anything soon.

Would a s/f have to be attained before they were noted with the older ones, im sure Lee and Guest work this method. Sonny Red may have been noted from the Lincoln meeting, taken from the Cammidge.

i know this is not a race to touch with a barge pole but i see j dunlop has left a top weight in to compress the weights goodwood starlight in the 5.30 at newmarket maybe an each/way chance?

Top-rated on one site, Les!

BC

This is for your eyes only (and of course anybody else interested in the subject of pace).
From the sectional times for Wodhill Schnaps' race, I have calculated the following. Preskani, who set the pace, Start-2f, 33.15mph; 2-4f, 35.55 mph; 4-6f, 32.91mph. Wodhill Schnaps, final furlong, 32.19mph. Wodhill Schnaps, average speed for whole race, 33.80mph.
So as you can see Wodhill Schnaps did not quicken but actually ran slower than the pace in the final furlong. This contradicts the form comment ˜ran on well' which, to me, indicates it was quickening or at least finishing strongly.

Those owners want a winner!

I'm interested in pace, garston.
Been following the debate elsewhere for years: those that maintain that horses usually slow towards the end of the race ( and not quicken) may not be as daft as some people think.

quote:

Originally posted by garstonf:
BC

This is for your eyes only (and of course anybody else interested in the subject of pace).
From the sectional times for Wodhill Schnaps' race, I have calculated the following. Preskani, who set the pace, Start-2f, 33.15mph; 2-4f, 35.55 mph; 4-6f, 32.91mph. Wodhill Schnaps, final furlong, 32.19mph. Wodhill Schnaps, average speed for whole race, 33.80mph.
So as you can see Wodhill Schnaps did not quicken but actually ran slower than the pace in the final furlong. This contradicts the form comment ˜ran on well' which, to me, indicates it was quickening or at least finishing strongly.

Hi Garston,

I suppose the commentator is reporting the race as it "appears". In this case, WS appeared to quicken in relation to the other horses in the race.

We know that good form is assessed from a true run race, which I take to mean a race run at a 'correct-for-the-grade high tempo'. If the race isn't run at a good tempo, it allows horses with less endurance (but perhaps more basic sprint speed), to feature at the finish.

I wonder what we really need to know regarding pace to assess a performance?

I stood in the paper shop yesterday looking at the Update, and decided that I just won't have time to get my head around it all at the mo'. (work) The calculations you've shown are interesting. As Sean points out, perhaps "quickening" is actually "slowing-less-than-the-others"!

BC

240 Newb:

Oldjoesaid's profile is almost identical to Northern Fling's. And as in the case of the latter there is no indication in 'quotes' or 'entries' of whether Oldjoesaid is going up into listed non-hcps or will stay in the C2 hcp division.

I have to favour the idea that Oldjoesaid is here to pick up a quick prize before moving up as he's only had 8 runs, which for a 4yo sprinter means they've not had the wrapper off him yet, and there is almost certainly far better yet to come.

My main concern is the price as he has 6 naps against his name including Spotlights and I get the feeling that he will go off about 5/2. I will try to get my $100 on at 5/1.

I tried to get on OldJoesaid since last night, and no bet has been matched yet.

Conquest, in the same race, however, was snapped up.

Could be a good sign for OJ, or perhaps I'm just asking for too much (5/1 equivalent).

I know it's after the race but I was surprised no one said anything about championship point yesterday surely that was a VDW horse if ever I saw one what do you think not a bad price as well

have fun

More easy money yesterday with Harbour Blues hitting the frame at 40/1 (FORTY) and today looks to present a gilt-edged opportunity to add to the gains. We will be heading to Berkshire for today's DOUBLE MAXIUM and the race in question is the snappily named Dubai Duty Free Full Of Surprises (overpriced) Handicap.

Newbury 2.40

OLDJOESAID 4yo b g

Record at 5f -11012 (3-5, 60%)
Record at 6f -722 (0-3, 0%)

That tells us that Oldjoesaid is clearly a better horse at 5f, but we can manufacture the STATS to make them even stronger by looking at his record over 5f when there is 'soft' in the going description.

Record at 5f on good-to-soft or slower -11 (2-2, 100%)

Faced with his ideal conditions today, and in a race his trainer has dominated in the past, he looks well worth a DOUBLE MAXIUM at the huge price of 3/1.

Running total +34 pts

Thank me later.




From betfair forum.

More and more of these tv pundits and racing journalists using new jargon and form analysis thesedays.

Well done once again to our man in Braaasil.

Another one
Well done JIB

well done and thank you jib