It can be difficult to decide if the form horse (however you go about it) is in form at this time of the year on the flat (turf). Judging by JIB`s post on the 4.20 today he had the front-runners in the market as unlikely to be ready or off.
Now how John goes about it is his business and whether its vdw or not it was pretty accurate today allowing the opportunity to play on the rest of the field and still make a handsome profit.

4:20 Easter Holiday Handicap (Class 2) (4yo+,0-100) (1m2f6y) 1m2f

[off 4:20] £11,217.60, £3,358.80, £1,679.40, £840.60, £419.40, £210.60



1 Flying Clarets (IRE) 4 R A Fahey 5 9-3 Paul Hanagan 12/1
2 2½ Eradicate (IRE) 2 M Johnston 4 9-4 Joe Fanning 7/2
3 3½ Heaven Knows 1 W J Haggas 5 9-4 R Hills EvensF
4 8 Aureate 3 B Ellison 4 8-8 Tom Eaves 16/1
5 3 Profit´s Reality (IRE) 5 P A Blockley 6 9-2 Ian Mongan 14/1
6 1½ Mull Of Dubai 6 T P Tate 5 9-0 Micky Fenton 11/2
7 41 Speedy Sam 7 K R Burke 5 8-9 Fergus Sweeney 20/1


7 ran TIME 2m 18.16s (slow by 7.46s) TOTAL SP 112%
1st OWNER: The Matthewman Partnership BRED: Gabriel Bell TRAINER: R A Fahey
2nd OWNER: A D Spence
3rd OWNER: Hamdan Al Maktoum

..................................................................................................

Id imagine it would be best to work from a list then if they show on the day (or top few of your class horses) working down, your in with a shout. Its not vdw but then im not so sure if that is that such a bad thing?.



Walter,

My understanding of VDW is that's the whole idea, taking the top few and then working down taking the one that fulfils ALL the requirements.

Its unlikely that i am aware of ALL the requirements where vdw is concerned mtoto, no sleep is lost there however, its a subject that`s sent many a man to the funny farm .

Just done a quick calc, discarding the front two in the betting and playing the field at Ponty yesterday would have returned £147 clear profit from a £100 stake.Finding false favs as Garston says is well worth a look but if you can rate the 2nd fav out as well then its happy days.

My view is that this time of year is dangerous for punters on the Flat.

So many are just preparing for later events and fitness can be surprisingly present, or, just not there yet.

HK is an animal that will improve for fitness, imo, but heaven knows what vdw and his followers would have to say about it.

quote:

Im sure vdw said that watching where trainers entered their horses the decision to run or not could give the game away.

There were always horses that I knew, or judged, to be at peak and ready to win. How they were placed could give the game away. What a lot of punters don't seem to appreciate is that in any race the majority' of horses are not there to win, but to prepare them to win.

I agree Sean how can we be sure if the form horse is ready even if he has the class to go with it.
VDW said to watch what the horse did in previous seasons but it does`nt always work out like that.

Cheers boozer that`s the one i was quoting from memory.

I could get a connection yesterday but I couldn't get the reply facility to work!

My comments on the 420P are, starting with my selection speedy Sam;

Being tailed off 41ls behind the the penultimate runner, combined, with his price colapse, suggests that today was never going to be the day, and it hardly qualifies as a prep for Saturday.

My obsevation about Eradicate is justified considering the poor state of these runners. He is just too high in the handicap.

Backing 'obvious' favourites at short prices in hcps is the road to ruin.

There was a lot of money for Mull Of Dubai, which no one will remember before his subsequent races, and when punters read the form of todays race he will attract as much money as Muffin The Mule. However there is something going on here and he's going on my 'remind me' to be followed at big prices.

Well done to the perenially sharp R Fahey who got his horse easily in at a double figure price.

I was reading through some of my files earlier this morning when i came across the Erin race.It seems to be the general held view on this board that vdw made the two market leaders Beacon Light and Decent Fellow out of form and false favs.
A question i would like to ask any of the more experienced members is would vdw have thought Prominent Kings weight carrying performance against Drumgora in the race prior to the Erin good enough to win the 116 race that Drumgora was third in?.

Walter

Looking at the evidence one would have to say no.
The Irish Sweeps Hcap Hurdle (the 116 race) was run in a time of 4m 1.10s. The Erin was run in 4m 13.10s, both on similar going (yielding). Prominent King would have carried 11-6 in the Sweeps 2lb more than he carried in the Erin. The Ticknock Hcap Hurdle, where Prominent King carried 12-7, was run in 4m 28.60s on good going.
Prominent King may well have been entered for the Irish Sweeps Hcap Hurdle, as he had finished down the field in it the year before. The trainer had not prepared Prominent King for the Sweeps and instead chose a race 4 days later which he knew Prominent King could not win.
If Prominent King had run in and won the Irish Sweeps Hcap Hurdle, he would NOT have won the Erin. Although, this wouldn't have been a bad thing as the Sweeps carried more prize money.
If Prominent King had run in and not won the Irish Sweeps Hcap Hurdle, he would most likely NOT have won the Erin.
Another of the "errors" in Narrow the Field that people may not be aware of is VDW's statement that Drumgora was meeting Prominent King on 17lb worse terms in the Erin. According to the form book it was 19lb worse terms. Another sign of VDW's mathematical genius or a clue to the paper he used?

That`s a pretty comprehensive reply there Garston, thanks.

Some interesting stuff here. Thanks to all.

About running in one race meaning that such and such would or would not happen in another race, may i ask

will Kauto Star win at Aintree ( if he runs) on the Thursday?

My only bet today is Heron Bay 310K.

William Bonney was withdrawn last week at Haydock never won over fences, runs today at Newbury.

Never threatened finished 4th like all good place bets.

time to go place only for me walter, just not happening ,grand national then time for a rethink

Les, just keep plugging away.

ocht a know grand national comming up it,ll keep me going did you back philatelist wattie saw you talking about it through the week another for the note book from yourself

BTW, if i had a pound for every time that i felt like giving up through sheer despondency it would have happened a very long time ago.There is no one Les that will get it right often enough at our level.That`s why i say keep plugging away as you have a bit of talent about you.

thank you walter when i could,nt find anything on friday night should have left it there, but its saturday games on, wee refreshment trying to make a bet when it was,nt there for me.must have went round and round the rosebury ten times and still would,nt have got the winner

yes ,will need to get out of my obsession with the grid and figures it can tell you a story jack proves that almost all the time need to take a look behind the figures