Walter

Regarding; enabling the astute punter to prosper.
I think what VDW was alluding to was the low class horse having his official rating raised disproportionately. Then running in a handicap some time later whilst being made favourite due to the fact it had run close to a class horse.
The horse would be carrying far too much weight relative to its rivals for something it hadn't done on merit. It would then be considered to be a false favourite thereby making something else in the race, with much better credentials and a better price than would normally be expected, a good bet.
I have had a quick look in the form book but cannot find an example to give you. The official handicapper knows his job too well these days and the above may no longer be relevant in racing today.

HI LADS
Timeform's jim mcgrath stated that denman would have to be a super horse to beat kauto star in the gold cup, does anyone buy into timeform ratings , are they any better than any other set of ratings at £5 a meeting

Any seroius punter must have noted the frequency with which high - class condition races result in small fields often with only two or three runners.This is not surprising when the implications are considered.The entrance and acceptance fees may involve £50 (much more these days) which to all intents is thrown down the drain for the lower class horse, but the more important factor is why risk the consequences involved.

Most small field races are not true run and for the lower - class horse the risk is being allotted more than a fair weight in handicap company after finishing within a few lengths of * a class horse *. Moreover, there is the fact that they meet on only pounds difference in the conditions race, but in a handicap it could be a couple of stone or more.

There is a clear message in the above and it should enable the astute punter to prosper.

Thanks for your take on it Garst.

..............................................................................................................

Would you all agree the first thing that we need establish is how are we defining *a class horse*?.
I mean what is * A CLASS HORSE * as opposed to * THE CLASS HORSE * ?.

25-05-2008 420Pont


There is a horse from a group I have made a point of highlighting in this type of race: Eradicate. If he wins then he will be unique amongst a decent sized sample of these analysed horses who also exhibited this same Macbeth-like characteristic but were unable to overcome it. Because this is a small field, where it is doubtful that there are more than a couple of fit horses he could still win but that would be inspite of, rather than because of this sinister stigma.


Heaven Knows sets the standard and is just as obvious about it. His lwr rates 91 and he's up 6lbs from that mark. Fitness has to be a question and the current 6/4 is only for the brave.



Flying Claret's lwr only rates 85 and his mark is now 5lbs up from that. Again there is no reason to believe he has been duly wound up. No bet.



Profit's Reality is in the process of being massaged down the hcp and his mark still looks inflated for what he has demonstrated. If he won this it would be a small prize and would probably be his last as he'd be lucky to ever get a winning mark again. No bet.



Mull Of Dubai ran a 101 at Ascot last summer, but after that his form seems to suggest that one of his legs dropped off! He's still on a mark 3lbs above that effort but the change of stable suggests that fitness has to be a great concern. No bet.



Aureate is fit from hurdling but he has no flat hcp form to suggest he can take this. Neither does he sport a big race entry to give credence that he's hiding his light under a bushel. No bet.



Speedy Sam is fit. On the 26th Jan he has a nice bit of form on the sand getting within 3lbs of the then 98 rated Silver Pivotal (now 105). In September he had eleven 90+ horses behind him at Newbury when coming second to the current 99 rated Monte Alto. He's now 3lbs lower than at Newbury and is 2lbs below his lwm. On the basis that his opposition today will not yet be at their best Speedy Sam looks placed to win.

quote:

Would you all agree the first thing that we need establish is how are we defining *a class horse*?.
I mean what is * A CLASS HORSE * as opposed to * THE CLASS HORSE * ?.

A class Horse
Capable of competing with the highest class

The class horse

The highest class horse in the current group/race
One eyed man in the land of the blind?

Being 5 lbs better off for a 4 1/4 length beating of the macbeth horse Eradicate 7/2, Speedy Sam certainly warrants a 2nd look at the current best price of 11/1 John.My concerns with todays race are that perhaps Eradicate at 3 yrs then may be open to a bit more improvement at 4 yrs after the winter break, his form tailed off somewhat after a fairly busy summer last term before showing again to a degree in the Monte Alto race.Interestingly both horses choose to dodge the class horse Heron Bay in the Roseberry this coming Saturday another horse Eradicate ran behind last season (9-7) 9/2 fav posting his best figs 104 to 100 ?.

John, i know you have based your findings on most not being ready but if you check out Philatelist there may be grounds for concern if Eradicate is ON.

Cheers boozer that sounds entirely plausible i was wondering if there was a benchmark a horse had to reach before it was defined as * a class horse * though?.

JIB
I have looked at the 4.20 race as well today and i make it between

heaven knows
profits reality
mull of dubai

Another way to look at is imagine you are the trainer and you have a horse on the boil entered in two races at the weekend, say in race (1) your charge receives 10 lbs in weight from the class horse, race (2) 14 lbs from the class horse of the race.Where should we go all things being equal with the class horses and both races providing ideal racing conditions for our tool?.I think this needs looking at to check potential.

Im sure vdw said that watching where trainers entered their horses the decision to run or not could give the game away.

Suffice to say that`s my take on his clear message, get as much distance (WEIGHT WISE) between you and the class of the race as possible.

Just noticed Eradicate is running 2 stones lighter .

WALTER
Has the jockey lost hes legs

is it not the class/form horse that we are looking for?

I take your point PD however its the class horse out of form that im searching for as they are making the handicap for us, its akin to taking on a boxer who has both hands tied together behind his back, very vulnerable .
Id imagine it would be best to work from a list then if they show on the day (or top few of your class horses) working down, your in with a shout.
Its not vdw but then im not so sure if that is that such a bad thing?.

ok walter anyone know who was class/form in the 4.20 at ponte?

quote:

Id imagine it would be best to work from a list then if they show on the day (or top few of your class horses) working down, your in with a shout. Its not vdw but then im not so sure if that is that such a bad thing?.

Walter,

My understanding of VDW is that's the whole idea, taking the top few and then working down taking the one that fulfils ALL the requirements.

Pipedreamer,

For me there was no c/form horse in the 4:20 at Ponty today.

Be Lucky

interesting mtoto,I would not agree but what do I know.

Heaven Knows?

One day, perhaps.