quote:

Originally posted by walter pigeon:

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Walter

VDW was warning us about class horses out for a warm-up in the small field condition races - which is why trainers continue to run apparent no-hopers in them.

How would that enable the astute to prosper though John?

Walter
By disbelieving the actual form of a prep run, and watching carefully for when the class horse is placed where the prize is big enough.It still happens regularly in current races, too.

Paul
"VDW said high class conditions race. Why would the trainer run the risk of finishing to close to a higher rated runner, maybe if the horse is unfit the trainer can get a idea of how good the horse is if it had been training well on the gallops with the trainers best horse and he needed to find out more.Some how though i think there is more to it than that"

Simply, because it is a small field, the trainer has a good chance of picking up decent place money, sometimes even a win, when the class horse is only out for a spin. Still happens regularly enough today, too. Have a look at Denman's last run before the Gold Cup, for instance.

John, im not sure this is to do with the class horses future engagements.

Thanks to everyone for their replies. I do know that there are horses with different running styles and that to succeed the jockey must play to his mount's strengths and attack the opposition's weak points.

That's what Thomas did on Denman. He burnt most of them off on the first circuit.
I'd heard all about the finishing ability of this KS, and, even though he looked poor to me, I felt that Denman had surely gone for home to early. But he hadn't, as it turned out. The tactics were just about right - and just about is all you need, imo!

Whether or no the fictitious vdw character knew all about all this type of thing and, indeed, wrote about it in a clear and straightforward manner that would help folk pick winners, is still something that I am far from sure about.

Good luck to all!

JOHND HI
Thank you for your last reply.

How then can we work out if the class horse was/ is out for a spin and not beaten fair and square.

Paul

Every race is different, so each one has to be considered on its own merits, though how the horse is/has been placed is the most important.
If it doesn't have everything in its favour, then there is doubt, in which case VDW advised us to leave well alone.
Temperament, if you like.

For what its worth I think Kauto was not wound up for the Gold Cup,from a conspiracy theorists point of view,look at it this way.

Kauto ran flat as at Aintree,and look at the proximity of Neptune Coll.

Check out Ruby's reaction in defeat,not very gracious,and to a stable companion as well.Gold Cups don't grow on trees,and it appears Ruby was left out of the loop.

Paul B is Nicholls landlord.

Harry F has been extolling the virtues of betfair publicly whenever/wherever he could,and betfair were spared the payout of 1,000,000 had Kauto won the race.

Denman not Kauto would have been fav if Ruby was on board.

All in all some good reasons for a conspiracy theory.

and of course thers all the hype again next year to, another rummble in the jungle

Interesting points, Pipedreamer.

I said it before, but perhaps not on here, KS and Ruby looked beat to me before the race started. As the paraded, they looked timid and your man's eyes were glazed like he'd had had a swig too many out of the champagne bottle after already riding two winners.

Denman, on the other hand, looked a power.

I doubt the two will race each other often.

quote:

For what its worth I think Kauto was not wound up for the Gold Cup,from a conspiracy theorists point of view,look at it this way.

While I like a good conspiracy theory as much as anyone, for me a few facts get in the way here.

Kauto Star not fit and ready to go? Can't see it, the performance he put in on Friday was good enough to win last years race. In fact I make it a better perfomance. Neptune Collonges to close for the form to stand up. Isn't that down to the way the race was run, if KS had been allowed to run the race as he wanted NC wouldn't have been able to get that close. A slower final circuit and KS could have conserved enough to out speed NC in the final run in. NC the out and out stayer ran on against a horse nearly on empty.

Was this a one off I don't think so? In the Haydock race a true run race Exotic Dancer finished closer to KS than he ever had. Haydock is nowhere as stiff as Cheltenham and of course there are 2f extra to travel, to me at least KS looked tired at the end of the Haydock race.

The difference between the two Gold Cups plain and simple was Denman, and the fact he can maintain his cruising speed longer than most 3 mile chasers. Personally I think if he had waited a couple of fences longer before going into overdrive he would have looked even more spectacular on the run in.

Sure Ruby looked p1ssed of, he like other thought KS had the class to win, and he chose the wrong one to ride. + he now knows if D turns up next season KS will never beat him at Cheltenham. Can't see the going will make that much difference as D has shown he can handle firm(er) going and still run fast there. In fact as D also has good form on flat course (although not yet proven on sharp courses) I would doubt KS would beat him on any course apart from Kempton and even then I don't think I would put money on him doing that.

For me its a case of the king is dead long live the king!

Be Lucky

My reaction is to agree with Mtoto.

But before posting, I thought I'd just check the times recorded for this years running compared to last year. My expectation was to see a faster 2008 time. In fact, this years was 7 seconds slower.

Both going conditions were good-soft.

Of course, the slower time may just be down to "softer" good-soft.
Or it may be that the part of the race before Denman took off was run slower.
Or ???

Long live the king.

BC

Mtoto

The difference between the 2 Gold Cups was the pace and the going. (Can't recall VDW ever mentioning Denman? ).
Last year, on better ground, Beef Or Salmon led them at a steady pace for the first mile, this year Neptune Collonges led them at a brisk pace until Denman took over and maintained the stronger pace for much of the rest of the race.
Kauto Star hit 7 of the 22 fences, something he has never done previously, and what VDW would have described as "not a fluent run", despite what your speed figures tell you.

quote:

The difference between the 2 Gold Cups was the pace and the going.

JohnD

Agreed, but how can you tell the pace was stronger than last year? As BC pointed out the race overall was slower. Without the going allowance and/or the s/f how can you tell, the going was stated as good to soft for both years? While VDW didn't mention Denman I still think he is very important, take him out of the race and the pace would have been more to KS liking, and we would have had the same winner as last year. NC wouldn't have finished as close as he did to KS, if KS had been allowed to run the race to suit himself. Re KS's jumping, I think VDW would have looked at the result and put the majority (not all as KS jumping has been sloppy on occasions) down to the fact the horse was having to travel faster/longer than he was comfortable with.

Be Lucky

Mtoto

There are any number of ways to sort out the pace and the going, s/f are just one, and not often the most reliable.
A simple study of times against standard will often do the trick for both pace and going, going allowances are widely available or you can construct your own, and the form of the runners against their previous form often tells more than even the best speed ratings.
Neptune Collonges set the early pace in this year's race, a pretty strong one as was necessary for a galloper that stays a good deal further, and Denman had little to do with it until past halfway. Kauto Star had already hit as many fences before that point as he had all season.
KS's jumping had improved in his previous 2 races for slightly different tactics, as indicated by his trainer and confirmed by his form but, for whatever reason, he failed to show the same form, at any stage, in the Gold Cup. As there was only 7l between them in circumstances that significantly favoured Denman. I wouldn't be at all confident about the form being confirmed in different circumstances.
Speed figures don't tell half the story.

Copied from a page on trf;

" RUK analysis of Gold Cup times this afternoon.

They showed that the Gold Cup was run 16 seconds faster than the Foxhunters to the 3rd last. Crucially from the winning post second time round (at which point Kauto Star had started to make the first semblance of a mistake) to the 3rd last Denman injected enough speed to run the race to the 3rd last 8 seconds faster than the Foxhunters.

Denman ran the remainder of the race in identical time to Amicelli - suggesting he had done his crucially tactical injection of pace well before the 3rd last and got home on fumes.

What this tells me is that Kauto Star did not run below form - he was simply put to the sword earlier in the race than was usual for him.







A normal Gold Cup is usually run 10 secs faster than the Foxhunters. This year's was over 14 seconds faster in the end.

Kauto Star's victory in the GC was only 6 seconds faster than Drombeag's in the 2007 Foxhunters. "

-----

Pace wins the Race.

Hyped horses cannot live with it.

Sean

Suggesting Kauto Star is a hyped horse is almost as daft as suggesting RUK presenters are world experts on race reading.

I know nothing about RUK, but their timing was spot on, I'd say, for this years's Gold Cup.

Next year is a long way off, but we'll see.

I take it the vdw pundits fell for the KS spiel.
Not to worry, there will be other horses, imo.

Sean

"Their timing" was as a result of similar points being raised on TRF, penned by an ex-Timeform employee a few days before they even considered it, though he did watch the race, and didn't make any daft assertions about KS.
Incidentally Timeform, who do have some credence in these matters, still rate Kauto Star 5lbs superior to Denman, so maybe his 8 gd1 wins at distances from 2m to 3m2f aren't all spiel?

Yes, I realise all that, johnd.

I watched the race too and was, at one stage, no less than six feet away from both Denman and KS, so I was able to have a good decca at them before and after the race.

KS has lost twice and won once at Cheltenham. He is not suited to the course, imo.

There again, strange things happen in racing - the success of wee Katchit being a good example.
I 've seen this thing run half a dozen times and he never won. Put me right off him.
Then he goes twig-hopping and he's a revelation.

Just shows it's not all in the booklets, imo, and also, it shows that, even I, with all my experience and expertise, can get it wrong at times!

Sean

It would be interesting to see those RUK pundits explain why Kauto Star, who had cruised clear (RP's words, not mine) in the 2m Tingle Creek and the 3m King George - both run at higher speed on slower ground - got 'outpaced' after a mile and a half of the Gold Cup?

I can't answer for any TV pundits, john, as I don't have a TV even, but my guess would be that

the major difference would be down to

different track configuration.

Luckily, for punters who don't go with the flow, Cheltenham is a unique course with, like Epsom, some telling undulations.

Hyped "park" horses rarely make the grade when up against proper animals at these places.This, of course, is why bookies make their money.
Like me, you will have seen the same shit happen year after year.

If the talking book horse always won, then the gambling game would have closed years ago. All the sheep who were on the likes of KS, would now be millionaires, instead of just bleating lambs wondering wtf went wrong.

I've learnt this the hard way myself, having been caught many times.

For all the bookleteers - excluding the ones who are still coining it by marketing the dream - let me try to help with just one suggestion;

"Concentrate on that idea of Dutching the top few in the betting" SR.

In most cases, forget the short fav and think about the next three. You won't go far wrong, imo.

How great it is to have a whole summer of good racing ahead of us!