In his words, - over the winter, Hatton had grown , from a boy into a man !!

I have a slight problem with winning trainer interviews...they are bollox in general

You get trainers saying how they plotted a race out etc...when in fact most of them ..80%... train with a hit and hope mentality.

Do you think CB would heve mentioned anything about how the horse has strenthened up if the horse had been beat?

When you train horses..you can say owt you want in the interview...particularly helpful if it makes you look shrewd...they are always on the lookout for new owners.

EC

I agree that when it comes to the Newcombes of this world then that may be true.

but are you saying that the likes of Sue and Harvey Smith - know Nowt about Horses ???? - 66/1 was a fluke ?

Then again we have the likes of Christine Dunnet, who set their horses up for Monster Gambles - are they Clueless ??


tc

Hello

He must have known Siver Pivotals draw well in advance as SP was easily the best horse in the race and you don't get that from the formbook.

Thank You

Vincent

I never take any heed of what trainers say in interviews. Though, they may know the score, there is no incentive for them to talk anything but bullshit to the public or to owners.

One of my relations is a trainer and that's what they do.

Btw, on an unrelated matter, but still to do with interviews, did Rupert Walsh tell Thommo to fk off after the Gold Cup?

That's one thing you can't hear when you're trackside, ie, the media bullshit. From the pictures on the big screen, you would have thought that P Nicholls was on the loser: he didn't look too chuffed.

HATTON
Is that the horse that won the chester vase and not much since

Yes, Paul.

Would that be a case of " class is eternal"?

I know several good judges have tipped him over the years and he didn't do the bizz.

He did saturday!

Nicholls lost out on his million pound bonus and I think KS is still his favorite.

Re Nicholls:

he probably can't stand Findlay.

I wouldn't be surprised if the two horses never race against each other again, or,
we find one of them leaves the yard.

Just a guess.

Posted March 15, 2008 12:40 PM Hide Post
Sean,

With a helpful nudge, you should now see that what a horse does from the distance, or doesn't do, can only be gauged by the opposition that it faces. What happens down the field is of no real interest to us as form students.

The next problem is how the elements of VDW's equation go together to weigh up acurately if there is a winner in the race; as stated previously consistency is key at each stage. Probability is odds and as we all know, when looking at the form of a past race the best horse (the winner) in the race isn't always favourite. This is an area that requires focus because being installed as the favourite before the race reflects the majority view - and that majority view is a valuable element of form. How the race pans out, and who is involved from the distance is the crucial element to weighing up form. What did the winner do in each of its last 3 races? Was it involved from the distance? Who was it involved against? This will help evaluate the strength of the race its just won. VDW said to go back as far as you like, and that the exercise would be useful.

The problem can be tricky though because the class of race in which a horse runs is important - the prize is the most important element in horse racing, without the prize racing wouldn't exist and those who suggest that prize money, as a gauge to class, is useless, are missing a trick. The majority view coupled with how the race pans out will also assist in identifying those horses that are ready to win. What the trainer does next can then be analysed.

When everything lines up the horse in question is seldom beaten. Our own temperament is the only thing that will then stand in our way. It will get all of us who try, just some will suffer more than others.

Vanman suggests that I don't know what I'm talking about - maybe he's right.
Posts: 421 | Registered: February 07, 2002

How do we accurately calculate those involved in the finish from the distance?.
Vdw gave his ability rating to rate class of runner and class of race but how do we use it to tally a race rating?.

Any seroius punter must have noted the frequency with which high - class condition races result in small fields often with only two or three runners.This is not surprising when the implications are considered.The entrance and acceptance fees may involve £50 (much more these days) which to all intents is thrown down the drain for the lower class horse, but the more important factor is why risk the consequences involved.

Most small field races are not true run and for the lower - class horse the risk is being allotted more than a fair weight in handicap company after finishing within a few lenghts of a class horse. Moreover, there is the fact that they meet on only pounds difference in the conditions race, but in a handicap it could be a couple of stone or more.

There is a clear message in the above and it should enable the astute punter to prosper.

Any views on this statement from vdw what is the clear message?.

Some very good questions there, Walter, and , as usual, i have no idea of the vdw answer.

However, thinking more about the first statement, re. what's done in the distance being key,
I have suddenly come up with some grave doubts.

Though I agree that it is important to note the competion, ie the rivals, I have problems with the idea of excluding the rest of the race as not instructive.

I'm thinking mostly of what i saw at Cheltenham last week: in the Gold Cup, Denman destroyed the opposition in the first circuit. The damage was so lasting, that he was able to hang on for at least three furlongs up yon hill and win.

Anyone looking only at the last two furlongs - which, frankly, most of us had to do in the old days afore TV and Big Screens etc - would have got a very wrong impression, possibly.

Just a thought, but it's no good sweeping doubts under the carpet. Even RUK experts have concluded, apparently, ( my source = TRF) that the mid -race moves by Denman were conclusive.
Now, there is no way that the last 2f can be classed as mid-race in a 3m 2f race, imo!

Yes Sean, that vdw statement surely needs special attention from a vdw group as he is basically saying that if you can understand the message being conveyed then your sorted, simple no?.

quote:

Most small field races are not true run

Ok it may just be based on my preconceived ideas but doesn't the doubt about some of these races come back to pace? If the race with a small field IS run at a good/true pace do the same doubts arise?

We can now study races in detail, VDW didn't have that advantage. The Gold Cup returned good s/f and I think that would have been enough to decide what the horses did at the end of the race was worthwhile.

Be Lucky

But I still think the decisive move came way before the last 2f, Mtoto.

On the small fields and pace issue, I tend to agree with you.

Yes, Walter, we need some these vdw-ers to do something at the distance, imo.

quote:

and for the lower - class horse the risk is being allotted more than a fair weight in handicap company after finishing within a few lengths of a class horse. Moreover, there is the fact that they meet on only pounds difference in the conditions race, but in a handicap it could be a couple of stone or more.

There is a clear message in the above and it should enable the astute punter to prosper.

Its this part of the message im more interested in.

It would be in a trainers interests to find an astute way to prepare for a big un without exposing his horse, im thinking along the lines of letting somebody else make up the snowball so that he could throw it.There`s something else in there as well as the pace issue and im pretty sure it revolves around weight and class, any thoughts.

SEAN HI
I think you will find that it is not so much as a decisive move but the correct way to ride a paticular horse if all goes to plan. For example you have front runners , horses that run just off the leading pace , those that run in the middle of the pack and those that have to be held at the back of the field. So if for example you had a horse that runs top class 3 mile races well and likes to run from the back of the pack the jockey would / should actually be making a move after about 2 / 3 furlongs . Buy not carrying out this procedure can result in the horse not showing in the last 2 furlongs , of which the horse needs to do so you can see that the horse is finishing its races properly.

hope that was of some help and not to confusing.

Walter

VDW was warning us about class horses out for a warm-up in the small field condition races - which is why trainers continue to run apparent no-hopers in them.

Sean
No mystery about Denman.
It is exactly as VDW explained in that one sentence in SIAO that he referred back to so many times, and how he performed in the closing stages is entirely due to that. Don't need a TV either, as the evidence is clearly in the form book.

quote:

Walter

VDW was warning us about class horses out for a warm-up in the small field condition races - which is why trainers continue to run apparent no-hopers in them.

How would that enable the astute to prosper though John?

The class athlete in pro - running (hcap) the (back marker) could be the equivalent of the class horse in racing terms.Cant speak for other schools but our objective was always to get as much of a start (yds) from the class runner as/was possible?.

JOHND HI
VDW said high class conditions race. Why would the trainer run the risk of finishing to close to a higher rated runner, maybe if the horse is unfit the trainer can get a idea of how good the horse is if it had been training well on the gallops with the trainers best horse and he needed to find out more.Some how though i think there is more to it than that